Japanese delayed defeat

Imagine a scenario where japan defeated the americans in Midway and in Guadalcanal, still they got beaten later in some other ATL battles

So, now it is may 8, 1945, Germany already surrendered, but the japanese situation in the pacific is better than in real life, the americans are pushing them back, Saipan have been captured weeks ago, but still they didn't reached Phillipines yet and the ATL equivalent to the battle of the Gulf of Leyte didn't happened yet

In this hypotetical scenario, would japan be able to sign his so desired peace treaty with USA? Would the soviet union have invaded Manchuria earlier, or later than in OTL? And what about Korea?
 
Can't see any settlement possible other than just unconditional surrender. The USSR will attack and overwhelm as in OTL early August.

USA submarine campaign will have sunk most shipping just the same.

With Saipan controlled USA can still do atomic bombs.

By end of September Japanese will be out of most of China, Korea, Kuriles, Sakhalin, Japanese navy still to strong for USSR invade main islands.

Allied navies will roll wherever the want, Japanese navy largely immobilized due to lack of fuel. I can see Philippines being bypassed for direct to Okinawa and Iwo Jima.

Japanese will surrender by end of October for sure as Allies catch up quickly.
 
The Japanese have more time to build up their defences in the outer islands, but possibly weighed out by the fact that the US might not even bother with the SOuth Pacific, they might decide to just power on through the Marshalls.
 
If America still successfully drops the bombs then Japan still loses. If for any reason this is butterflied away (and i doubt it if Saipan and Tinian have still been taken by the US) then theres still an August Storm heading their way

Big winners if theres no bombs will be the Soviets - they'll roflstomp through the Japanese armies on the mainland

As for the home islands, no idea - more bombs til they surrender i guess?
 
If America still successfully drops the bombs then Japan still loses. If for any reason this is butterflied away (and i doubt it if Saipan and Tinian have still been taken by the US) then theres still an August Storm heading their way
Bolded the relevant part. It's impossible for Japan to win long term. If Midway's a Japanese victory, the US comes back six months later with a mix of Fleet, Light and Escort carriers and just overwhelms the Japanese with numbers.
 
If America still successfully drops the bombs then Japan still loses. If for any reason this is butterflied away (and i doubt it if Saipan and Tinian have still been taken by the US) then theres still an August Storm heading their way

Big winners if theres no bombs will be the Soviets - they'll roflstomp through the Japanese armies on the mainland

As for the home islands, no idea - more bombs til they surrender i guess?

Keep in mind, though, that in OTL bombing from the Marianas didn't start until over 4 months after the Marianas had been captured. So a delay in capturing the Marianas could very well delay the dropping of the atomic bomb.
 
Hmm

...Would the soviet union have invaded Manchuria earlier, or later than in OTL?...
I think the Red Army's advance in the original timeline into Manchuria was based on everything being sorted out in Germany (both the fighting ending there, and the Potsdam conference negotiations/haggling of Stalin with Truman); assuming the war in Europe finishes at the original timeline date, I don't see any reason for the Manchuria offensive to be delayed. Stalin wants as much action as possible to strengthen his hand at the post-war negotiations in the far-east.
 
Keep in mind, though, that in OTL bombing from the Marianas didn't start until over 4 months after the Marianas had been captured. So a delay in capturing the Marianas could very well delay the dropping of the atomic bomb.

Mid-air refuelling gets developed really fast if this is the case. Although I'd suppose USA might decide to wait until a larger amount of bombs, say 10, are ready to be used en masse. Against less depleted Japanese air defenses they can bomb at night using submarines as navigational aids if necessary.

In extreme case they might even decide on one-way missions, using submarines for rescue of the aircrew. This would be the easiest way to increase range.
 
Keep in mind, though, that in OTL bombing from the Marianas didn't start until over 4 months after the Marianas had been captured. So a delay in capturing the Marianas could very well delay the dropping of the atomic bomb.

which means the Soviets are the big winners. August Storm comes rolling along and they get Manchuria, Korea, Sakhalin and the Kuriles

Is Japan does'nt surrender after that then the bombs come along in the autumn or winter
 
This is very bad for the Japanese population. A delay in the end of the war means a delay in US food aid, which means Japan is going into the rice crop failure of the fall of 45 without the food supplies that saved millions...
 
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