No, the POD happens beforehand. The japanese get some REAL tanks, not those tin cans they had in WW2. So, assuming a POD in the mid 1930s, where Japan wakes up to the fact that their tanks are being neglected, and successfully design a medium tank, perhaps an earlier version of the
Type 1 Chi-He, and mayhaps a heavy tank.......
I know this would require furthur PODs, especially since during WW2, tank production was neglected for Naval construction, with much high grade steel going to the Navy. Assume ITTL more steel gets allocated for the army. Oh, and Japan also, as a side note, develops and deploys transport trucks (IOTL the japanese suffered supply shortages here because of lack of this type of transport)
So, assume that Japan, with a greater emphasis on medium Tanks,
and also avoiding encirclement, crushes the Soviet First Soviet Mongolian Army Group, and moves toward Lake Baikal, and it's attendant resources.
What happens then?