Japanese Colonial Empire in Case of a Resurgent China?

If Japanese expansion in Continental Asia in the 1870s/80s is checked by, say, a resurgent China, and Japan do not feel threatened by the Russians because of the same resurgent China keeps the Russians at bay.

Taiwan stays in China, and Korea is neutralized.

And there is some sort of Sino-Japanese naval agreement that keeps the Chinese navy smaller than Japan's. Basically a "China keeps the land, and Japan keeps the sea" agreement.

What is the alternate colonial empire for Japan?

I can see Japan wanting the Philippines more.

And how about Japanese Empire in South America?
 
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What is the alternate colonial empire for Japan?

I can see Japan desiring the Philippines more.

And how about Japanese Empire in South America?


The Philippines, well that's gonna ruffle feathers with U.S, and possibly other powers.

South America, Monroe doctrine no chance in hell. I could see them keeping Korea and Taiwan.
 
Most plausible areas of Japanese expansion are: Korea, Taiwan, Hainan, Manchuria, the Phillipines, and other small island clusters in the Pacific.

This is only happening if you have a weak Russia and China and a Britain which gives Japan its tacit consent to expand in the Pacific.

The Philippines could be seized for Japan if the events line up well (I've always had a pet scenario where the Navy seeks to prove its superiority in the political maneuvering post-Sino-Japanese war by attempting a false flag casus beli against Spain to endear public outrage towards an expansionist empire) and could be Japan's version of the Spanish-American War leading to some more overt expansionism.

Then Korea is only natural with Manchuria following as a sort of buffer state. Islands are easily seized and controlled by the IJN and if they come out on the winning side in any Great War type conflict then you have the perfect scenario for an earlier expansion in the Pacific.
 
The Philippines, well that's gonna ruffle feathers with U.S, and possibly other powers.

South America, Monroe doctrine no chance in hell. I could see them keeping Korea and Taiwan.

I'm talking about an alternate colonial empire for Japan. Taiwan and Korea was its OTL empire.

And the premise was a resurgent China.

Let me change the title to make it clearer.
 
I'm talking about an alternate colonial empire for Japan. Taiwan and Korea was its OTL empire.

And the premise was a resurgent China.

Let me change the title to make it clearer.

I know the premise, and the extant of the Japanese Colonial empire. I'm just telling you that the Philippines is very risky, and South America is flat out. The possibilities an alternate Japanese colonial empire with your current premise of a strong China, Japan is hard pressed to get anything more than Korea and Taiwan, with Philippines as a distinct possibility.
 
Japan is going to be extremely limited. A resurgent China will always be interested in throwing out Japan from the mainland so I have a hard time seeing Japan establishing themselves in korea, Indo china, or Siam. That lease the islands of the Philipenes and Dutch East Indies which is going to ruffle a ton of feathers.
Japan is going to need a first rate navy to prevent them from being conquered/subjugated by the Chinese. Japan might be able to strike an accord for the seas while China looks toward the mainlands of SE Asia, Korea, Central Asia and potentially India.
No matter what Japan will be reacting and playing second fiddle to this China instead of the other way around.
 
Japan is going to be extremely limited. A resurgent China will always be interested in throwing out Japan from the mainland so I have a hard time seeing Japan establishing themselves in korea, Indo china, or Siam. That lease the islands of the Philipenes and Dutch East Indies which is going to ruffle a ton of feathers.
Positive.
Philippenes and especially (what would become) Indonesia was the single most important source of raw material for Japan even in OTL. Without any mainland possession, I could see the Japanese trying to grab it at any chance.

Japan is going to need a first rate navy to prevent them from being conquered/subjugated by the Chinese. Japan might be able to strike an accord for the seas while China looks toward the mainlands of SE Asia, Korea, Central Asia and potentially India.
1) Yes, that's what I was aiming for. 2) India? I don't see ruling 300 million people over the Himalayas something possible. Only a sea power could do that, and if it's not England, then it might be Japan, but definitely not China.

No matter what Japan will be reacting and playing second fiddle to this China instead of the other way around.
China ITTL has an interest in concentrating on only one of the two options: land, or sea. Because land power (army, railway, Central Asia, Outer Manchuria) was absolutely vital for China's survival, China simply couldn't afford to build up as a full-blown naval power. Thus China had the intrinsic interest to keep Japan intact in order to distract the west (primarily the United States) on the sea. Until the day China became economically much larger than the United States, then China could start to develope into a Sea Power.
 
The Philippines, well that's gonna ruffle feathers with U.S, and possibly other powers.

South America, Monroe doctrine no chance in hell. I could see them keeping Korea and Taiwan.

Philippines with an 1870s pod is possible. US doesn't have the capability yet to project power at the same level as the 1890s.

Issue with the Philippines in the 1870s is a formidable Spanish navy was still advanced. Although that is easily can be negated since rebellions in the philippines in 1870s came from the Spanish armed forces in the philippines. That could easily half the Spanish forces there both land and naval forces.
 
Positive.
Philippenes and especially (what would become) Indonesia was the single most important source of raw material for Japan even in OTL. Without any mainland possession, I could see the Japanese trying to grab it at any chance.
The hardest part is with a resurgent china they Have to piss off a European power and they would either piss off the owners of said islands, the owners of other islands that would be threatened or the allies of either islands. They best relation they will have with any European power is being an attack dog on an enemies colonies.
1) Yes, that's what I was aiming for. 2) India? I don't see ruling 300 million people over the Himalayas something possible. Only a sea power could do that, and if it's not England, then it might be Japan, but definitely not China.
Not all of india, but if could break it up, own parts and use proxies for the rest. I was really just thinking about OTL how in WWII the Japanese threatened India as well as Britian's worry of Russian Involvement in the Great game. No way in hell could they hold a substantial part of India directly for an extend period of time, but they could play a role at breaking up any united power much like the UK towards Europe OTL
China ITTL has an interest in concentrating on only one of the two options: land, or sea. Because land power (army, railway, Central Asia, Outer Manchuria) was absolutely vital for China's survival, China simply couldn't afford to build up as a full-blown naval power. Thus China had the intrinsic interest to keep Japan intact in order to distract the west (primarily the United States) on the sea. Until the day China became economically much larger than the United States, then China could start to develope into a Sea Power.
And at that point Japan will either be in its sphere or beaten down. Japan will always be important but it will be closer to the US-Canadian relationship than anything else
 
The Japanese can turn towards Oceania, with most of Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia under their sphere. Papua is an option. It would be interesting if Japan picked up something close to the mainland of the Americas, such as Easter Island or Clipperton, from which they could foster close trade ties with Latin American nations.

The Japanese could also turn north, pressing harder their claims to Sakhalin and the Kurils, and they might even push for the Kamchatka Peninsula.
 
Why would they get a colonial empire in this situation?
The whole point of the empire they did have was protecting against china. If they fail in that... Then all attention has to be on building up the defences in japan whilst trying ever harder to tear those areas away from Chinese influence.
 
Why would they get a colonial empire in this situation?
The whole point of the empire they did have was protecting against china.
Japan might see China as a legitimate threat before the 1895 Sino-Japanese war, but their expansions into China showed that the true reason for the Japanese Colonial Empire was not China's strength but weaknesses, and the cost-opportunity they had expanding into China: relatively less risk with high profits.

Remember, from scholars who wrote Seikanron to officers who made-up Mukden incident, colonial expansion was always a bottom-up business for Japan, with self-styled scholars, glory-seeking samurais, jobless Ronins, and frustrated officers starting troubles and imperial government following suit. If China proved to be too resistant, these people will try their hands elsewhere, namely Philippines and Indonesia.

And you rather ignored the strong and quite legitimate Russuphobia that motivated almost all of Japan's colonial wars, from 1895, to 1905, to 1939.

Tyr said:
If they fail in that... Then all attention has to be on building up the defences in japan whilst trying ever harder to tear those areas away from Chinese influence.
The China in this TL would be strong on land but quite weak at sea, so I have no idea why would Japan try to do that.
 
Going after the Philippines or the Dutch East Indies is really risky IMO. South America is basically impossible without massively screwing over the USA in an unrelated conflict. (A much more painful ACW, perhaps even ending in a CSA victory perhaps?). China isn't going to be keen on a Japanese Korea, in OTL they were obviously too weak to prevent it but if the premise is a resurgent China that is stronger than Japan on land, then I don't see them agreeing to it.

I think a Japanese Sakhalin, Kurils and possibly Kamchatka might be doable if things go really badly for Russia in the Far East TTL - perhaps they're smacked around by both a resurgent China and Japan during TTL's analogue to the Russo-Japanese War?
 
The Japanese can turn towards Oceania, with most of Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia under their sphere. Papua is an option. It would be interesting if Japan picked up something close to the mainland of the Americas, such as Easter Island or Clipperton, from which they could foster close trade ties with Latin American nations.

The Japanese could also turn north, pressing harder their claims to Sakhalin and the Kurils, and they might even push for the Kamchatka Peninsula.

I actually had a TL idea in my head that Japan snags Papua New Guinea but only does by an empire that supports its colonial ambitions.

Japan could also snag German New Guinea in WW1 but will have to be quick to seize it before the Aussies get to it.
 
Forget South America. I can think of three possible areas of expansion:

1. Eastern Siberia. This would seem like a good idea at the time, assuming Japan won the Russo-Japanese War ITTL. It would actually be a very bad idea, unless Japan can get China to join them, maybe promising them Mongolia and Central Siberia — between the Yenisey and the Lena, say.

2. The Dutch East Indies. This would also seem like a good idea, because oil. Since it would mean sending a lot of men and materiel past the Philippines, it would only work if Japan were on friendly terms with the United States… which isn't completely impossible in this scenario. Between the world wars, America's biggest beef with Japan was that they were invading China, where Americans were trying to sell stuff. That would not be happening here.

3. The Philippines. This would seem like the best idea of all. It would be the worst.
 
There's also North Borneo, rights to which in OTL were passed around between such unlikely Asian empire builders as the United States, Austria-Hungary, and Italy before finally being incorporated into the British fold. Why not through Japan into the mix of would-be claimants?
 
Forget South America. I can think of three possible areas of expansion:

1. Eastern Siberia. This would seem like a good idea at the time, assuming Japan won the Russo-Japanese War ITTL. It would actually be a very bad idea, unless Japan can get China to join them, maybe promising them Mongolia and Central Siberia — between the Yenisey and the Lena, say.

2. The Dutch East Indies. This would also seem like a good idea, because oil. Since it would mean sending a lot of men and materiel past the Philippines, it would only work if Japan were on friendly terms with the United States… which isn't completely impossible in this scenario. Between the world wars, America's biggest beef with Japan was that they were invading China, where Americans were trying to sell stuff. That would not be happening here.

3. The Philippines. This would seem like the best idea of all. It would be the worst.

I dont know what PoD you are coming from. America doesnt have power projection in this part of Asia with the OPs PoD nor had colonies in Asia nor was even at par with Spain's navy in the 1870s.

The problem with the OP's statement is the assumption that Japan is an expansionist in 1870s/80s, a period when Japan was in Meiji restoration. There is no doubt Japan wasnt an expansionist during that PoD.
 
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