How might the Guadalcanal campaign have evolved and developed differently for both sides if the Japanese Navy had been able to deploy the 4 heavy carriers they lost a few months earlier at Midway?
Japanese Carriers at Guadalcanal
- Thread starter That Damned Fool
- Start date
The U.S. Navy would of course have been
outnumbered & since IOTL Guadalcanal cost
the Navy 2 carriers as it was(plus SARATOGA
was torpedoed & sent to the sidelines for a
long time & was thus unavailable)I have the
sinking feeling the whole campaign would
have turned out differently. Midway was in-
deed a most important victory.
P.S. This is NOT meant as a knock on U.S.
Navy fliers- who IOTL did incredible things in
the Pacific. Rather, it is a recognition that in
war, God is quite often on the side of the
biggest battalions- & in this ATL, Japan
would have had them(they were tough
enough to defeat @ Guadalcanal IOTL when
they thankfully weren't in that position).
Last edited:
Not cancelled, but certainly postponed. Operation Watchtower was approved and went forward precisely because the Japanese losses at Midway had sufficiently altered the balance of forces in the Americans' favor. Without those losses the operation would have been postponed until the forces in the area were sufficiently reinforced, which would not be before early 1943. By that time the Japanese bases on both Guadalcanal and Tulagi would be fully established, Japanese air reconnaissance extended over the eastern Solomons, and the garrisons fully entrenched and supplied. Evicting them would have been much more difficult and costly than OTL.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_United_States_Naval_Operations_in_World_War_II_(series), specifically volumes 4 and 5.
Indeed. A further possibility is the Japanese would have attempted Operation FS. Aimed at the Fiji Samoa region. The forward airfield on Guadalcanal would have been ready to support ops eastwards in September. Had that occurred the autumn battles would have occurred further east from the Solomons.
BlondieBC
Banned
If we get to 1943 before the USN begins its major offensive, there is a good chance they go with the Central Pacific attack route. And by this time, Guadalcanal could well have a fully finished airfield combined with quality defenses. And in any case, fronts will have moved. Losses will have occurred, so there is a good chance that the battle is on another Island, even if in the SW Pacific area. Just too many butterflies to say we have a Guadalcanal that is even vaguely similar to OTL.
BlondieBC
Banned
Probably goes on the defensive, and into a passive mode. Logistics are stretched. Any more island are far away from any Japanese interests. Most likely IMO, the USA goes the Central Pacific attack route in mid 1943. We have sort of also skipped the details about Midway. Did the battle still happen? Were all 4 Japanese carriers damaged but survived? Were there heavy aircrew losses? etc.
Might the Japanese make another try at Port Moresby? This time, bring the full Kido Butai and the lesser carriers.
Let's assume a Midway where the US carriers were at Pearl and Nimitz kept them there because intel picked up on the Japanese sub line. (Trying to come up with a good POD). A week after the island defeats the first landing attempt, there are four American carriers (Enterprise, Hornet, Yorktown, Saratoga) covering the island and the Combined Fleet is most of the way back to port.
Another major KB push to the South Pacific with bases at Truk means the IJN burns another 3 to 6 months worth of fuel reserves when all six carriers and all four Kongos go to sea for a major offensive push with high-speed maneuvering. Their logistics aren't good even if Midway produced a non-event.
BlondieBC
Banned
It could easily happen. I don't think the Japanese would bring the full navy in most situations, but either an overland attack or a series of operations supported by a couple of carriers out of Truk is possible. It is also easy for me to see OTL American forces in Guadalcanal deployed to the Port Moresby area. If this happens, we will still see the August 1942 to late 1943 OTL war of attrition. It will just likely involved fewer warships and probably more infantry and plane losses. I many ways, a very slow motion meeting engagement that decides little besides burning resources.
Based on Fester's assumptions, there appear to be two options facing the Japanese: either Operation FS or another attempt at Operation MO. Yamamoto would still be seeking the Decisive Battle that hadn't happened at Midway, so which of these two offers the better opportunity would be the likely choice.
Operation FS would allow the Japanese to interdict the sea-lanes from the US West Coast to Australia but is somewhat more logistically challenging, although that never seemed to stop the Japanese from proceeding with an operation. However, it is out of range of land-based aircraft making it a riskier proposition.
A revised Operation MO has a couple of advantages: it would seal off the southern barrier line against any advance from Australia; it offers the better opportunity to attrit USN forces as they enter the area of operations, and land-based aircraft from the Solomons can restrict USN operations.
We could realistically see a 2nd Battle of the Coral Sea under this scenario using the available units of the Kido Butai (4 -6 fleet carriers and supporting vessels) in the late August/early September 1942 time frame.
Operation FS would allow the Japanese to interdict the sea-lanes from the US West Coast to Australia but is somewhat more logistically challenging, although that never seemed to stop the Japanese from proceeding with an operation. However, it is out of range of land-based aircraft making it a riskier proposition.
A revised Operation MO has a couple of advantages: it would seal off the southern barrier line against any advance from Australia; it offers the better opportunity to attrit USN forces as they enter the area of operations, and land-based aircraft from the Solomons can restrict USN operations.
We could realistically see a 2nd Battle of the Coral Sea under this scenario using the available units of the Kido Butai (4 -6 fleet carriers and supporting vessels) in the late August/early September 1942 time frame.
I would agree that Operation Watchtower would be cancelled. It was undertaken on short notice based on the favorable circumstances after Midway. 1st MARDIV had originally thought it would be training until late 1942 or early 1943 when it received its deployment orders for Watchtower. Nimitz would not risk his carriers in the restricted waters around the Solomons if the Kido Butai was relatively intact. He would continue to raid Japanese held islands and wait for an opportunity to gain the tactical advantage similar to what happened at OTL Midway, perhaps if the Japanese attempt to re-run Operation MO but don't send an overwhelming force to support the effort.
Yes, however the OTL second attempt at Port Moresby was defeated on land. The Japanese had a problem getting together robust landing forces that could deal with properly trained and equipped defender's.
Yup. A reinforced battalion task force with inadequate service support tried to hustle a Australian infantry brigade off the air fields.
This alternate Japanese attack on Port Moresby would have a much stronger naval and air element, I assume. I'm also assuming a stronger ground element, if the invasion fleet doesn't lose transports. The odds of Japanese success will be greater.
This highlights a problem for any Japanese offensive at this time. Any place in the South Pacific worth a major offensive has a garrison that will pose problems for the invaders.
I'd have to check the Allied OB, but my take is the Allied reserve was not committed. The defense was by the local battalions IIRC
Going back to the OP, I don't think the Allies will attempt a landing on Guadalcanal. If they do the historical Watchtower, the Marines are eventually evacuated.
After Guadalcanal, with or without an Allied landing, would the Japanese strike towards Fiji/Samoa or towards Espirito Santo? Which would be the better target?
After Guadalcanal, with or without an Allied landing, would the Japanese strike towards Fiji/Samoa or towards Espirito Santo? Which would be the better target?
Santa Cruz. It is in air range of Guadalcanal & the Japanese had a preference for operating near land based air cover. After securing Santa Cruz then probably whatever is in range.
McPherson
Banned
Hmm. Going by the opening post, and considering that most of the moves have already been covered subsequent, the only thing I will offer is this:
Historically, Yamamoto was after decision within the first year. Nimitz at his end was after attrition and delay until late 43 when he would finally have his numerical advantage to mount a central Pacific drive. I don't think the Solomons entered into his strategic vision as much as it was a King impetus to stop the Japanese expansion, go on the offensive and stick it to Marshal and the Europe First policy. With both men, Yamamoto and Nimitz, looking for a common area to achieve their differing ends, I would think HAWAII would be the place where both would collide presuming Midway is a wash. This time Pearl Harbor Round II would be a lot dicier for the Japanese, but Yamamoto was a gambler. He would roll those dice there for the knockout, not in the Solomons where the best he can achieve is a slow retreat (which is what happened).
Historically, Yamamoto was after decision within the first year. Nimitz at his end was after attrition and delay until late 43 when he would finally have his numerical advantage to mount a central Pacific drive. I don't think the Solomons entered into his strategic vision as much as it was a King impetus to stop the Japanese expansion, go on the offensive and stick it to Marshal and the Europe First policy. With both men, Yamamoto and Nimitz, looking for a common area to achieve their differing ends, I would think HAWAII would be the place where both would collide presuming Midway is a wash. This time Pearl Harbor Round II would be a lot dicier for the Japanese, but Yamamoto was a gambler. He would roll those dice there for the knockout, not in the Solomons where the best he can achieve is a slow retreat (which is what happened).