Thing is, I suspect that Stalin would probably be willing to deal with Japan. Any concession in the Far East is survivable, and well worthwhile, if it means those troops can stop the Wehrmacht from marching on Gorky.
If the Soviets are fighting Japan in the Far East, there will be no Siberian reinforcements to Moscow; indeed, with two years of modernizing and building a competitive army, the IJA is almost certainly going to cut off Vladivostok--and with the help of the IJN, probably the whole Maritime province.
The real problem is that the Soviets have no slack for dealing with Japan until at least 1943. This would be exacerbated if the war in the West is worse in general. Conceding Sakhalin and the Maritime Province to Japan would be an easy call compared to losing Leningrad, Moscow, and possibly the ability to field a conventional army against the Germans.
Would Stalin seek to restart his war against Japan? Not at least until Germany was finished, and that may well not happen, particularly if a counterfactual German 1942 campaign starts without the critical Winter 1941 counterattack. If the Germans remain a dozen or so miles from Moscow when the ground thaws, they'd go for it, and probably barely win in the Soviet Capital.
The Soviets would be in such bad shape that they'd probably be unable to clear the Germans from their own territory. As atrocities pile up in occupied Russia, I think a generous peace with Japan is in the cards. Even if the Japanese only earn a rough stalemate in the East, Stalin would be wise to fold to their demands if it means a better chance against Germany, and I think if push came to shove then Stalin would indeed go "F*** This" and give up on the Far East.
With the USA inevitably joining the war against Germany, the outcome of the conflict can not be in doubt, but Japan may well get away with its crimes if the war rages for another year, Moscow and Leningrad are hollow wrecks, and the red army essentially waits for help from the Allies instead of being able to even eject the Germans.
If the Soviets are fighting Japan in the Far East, there will be no Siberian reinforcements to Moscow; indeed, with two years of modernizing and building a competitive army, the IJA is almost certainly going to cut off Vladivostok--and with the help of the IJN, probably the whole Maritime province.
The real problem is that the Soviets have no slack for dealing with Japan until at least 1943. This would be exacerbated if the war in the West is worse in general. Conceding Sakhalin and the Maritime Province to Japan would be an easy call compared to losing Leningrad, Moscow, and possibly the ability to field a conventional army against the Germans.
Would Stalin seek to restart his war against Japan? Not at least until Germany was finished, and that may well not happen, particularly if a counterfactual German 1942 campaign starts without the critical Winter 1941 counterattack. If the Germans remain a dozen or so miles from Moscow when the ground thaws, they'd go for it, and probably barely win in the Soviet Capital.
The Soviets would be in such bad shape that they'd probably be unable to clear the Germans from their own territory. As atrocities pile up in occupied Russia, I think a generous peace with Japan is in the cards. Even if the Japanese only earn a rough stalemate in the East, Stalin would be wise to fold to their demands if it means a better chance against Germany, and I think if push came to shove then Stalin would indeed go "F*** This" and give up on the Far East.
With the USA inevitably joining the war against Germany, the outcome of the conflict can not be in doubt, but Japan may well get away with its crimes if the war rages for another year, Moscow and Leningrad are hollow wrecks, and the red army essentially waits for help from the Allies instead of being able to even eject the Germans.