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In WW2 Australia Imperial Forces (AIF) was essentially two armies. One made up of crack well trained volunteers most of which were shipped off to fight in North Africa supporting the British. The other was made up of two or three militia divisions from the two big cities of Sydney and Melbourne. These militias were made up of young boys or reluctant conscripts press ganged into service.
WI the AIF troops serving in North Africa were sunk in transit off the Western Australia by a German raider after being recalled back to Australia? (This was an actual nightmare senario keeping Prime Minister John Curtin up at nights).
This would clearly impact upon Curtin attracting wholesale US interest in an active alliance as well as providing a effective reserve to reinforce depleted militias fighting for Port Moresby in New Guinea.
Since this was the first time Japan had withdrawn in battle in the OTL, could the capitulation of the AIF in New Guinea further enhance Japanese invincibility prompting Australia to cede more territories and sign a Non Aggression Pact with Japan?
Or does she stand alone (with NZ?) along the proposed Brisbane Line waging a bitter and ruthless war of attrition using guerrilla tactics in the Far North of the continent? Could this eventuate in a major US led sea and land campaign to preserve a naval presence in Northern Australia resulting in the Battle of Darwin?
Maybe in this ATL General MacCathur strides onto the beaches of the Australian Gold Coast to relieve the embattled ANZACs as well as to re-establish a stable supply base to begin the US War in the Pacific?