Japanese-American War in 1897 over Hawaii

[Super_Cool]

In 1897, there was a crisis between Japan and the USA over Hawaii. McKinley was starting with the creation of an annexation treaty which pissed off the Japanese to the point where both sides were considering a war over the islands. Suppose cooler heads don't prevail and Japan goes to war to stop any annexation.

How does an 1897 Pacific war play out? Is the Spanish-American War butterflied away?

 

[raharris1973]

Have you read "Pacific Gibraltar" on this topic.

The most probable course of any US-Japanese war at this time would be an eventual local US victory in Hawaii, with some US operations, but no major invasions, occupations or fleet victories west of the dateline.


Japan is quite unlikely to dare to do this. They need to really underestimate American commitment to fight over the issue.

Another way to approach it is if the Japanese end up with victory disease from winning against China in 1895, and Russia is too distracted by domestic, European or Middle Eastern troubles to organize the Triple Intervention to humble Japan. A Japan that gets everything it calls for in its first draft of the Shimonoseki would be pretty self-confident, and just *might* be confident enough to overestimate its ability to contest Hawaii.

Less likely than this, quite a long shot, would be if the Sino-Japanese war is postponed simply because the occasion for it in Korea gets delayed. Maybe this coincides with even higher immigration to Hawaii. Although Japan is not necessarily cocky, it has not had the Triple Intervention incident to remind it that it is *still* weak, isolated and vulnerable in the 1890s.

 

[Super_Cool]

Have you read "Pacific Gibraltar" on this topic.

I actually got the topic from Pacific Gibraltar. And I agree with what you wrote about Japan not wanting to risk it in OTL.

If war came about, I think its possible the USA could grab the Bonin Islands and Taiwan, taking the place of Guam and the Philippines in American strategy. The question is, would Japan revert to isolation after the war or become revaunchist?

 

[raharris1973]

If war came about, I think its possible the USA could grab the Bonin Islands and Taiwan, taking the place of Guam and the Philippines in American strategy.

Very interesting - why not Okinawa in this case?

How would the Battle of Iwo Jima go down in 1899?

Japanese population permitted to remain in Hawaii or expelled?

And Taiwan - would the US face an alt-Philippine Insurrection there, supported by Chinese funds and recruits from the mainland? (Qing loyalists, triad oppositionists, or both?).

The US could be in the unenviable position long-term of having both Japan and China pissed against it.

The question is, would Japan revert to isolation after the war or become revaunchist?

I suspect Japan would be revanchist in word and thought and heart, but not in deed. It would pick on easier targets than American territory.

 

[Alstein]

In 1897, there was a crisis between Japan and the USA over Hawaii. McKinley was starting with the creation of an annexation treaty which pissed off the Japanese to the point where both sides were considering a war over the islands. Suppose cooler heads don't prevail and Japan goes to war to stop any annexation.

How does an 1897 Pacific war play out? Is the Spanish-American War butterflied away?

Could a war erupt over the Gentleman's Agreement a few years later if no agreement is reached. Both countries would be feeling themselves after recent war victories.

 

[raharris1973]

Super Cool's suggestion of the Bonin islands as a potential war prize for the US inspired me to look for more details on them.

First thing I wondered is if there were any harbors considered sufficient for a naval base in those islands.

The Japanese had a navy base in Chichi-Jima in WWII. However, it may have been pretty small and probably couldn't compare with Manila Bay or Guam in terms of naval possibilities.

At the same time though, interestingly, the US could assert a historical claim, as some of these islands had been colonized by American whalers before the opening of Japan.

....and I just remembered another thing from reading Edward Miller's "War Plan Orange".

The first US war plan against Japan was drawn up in 1897. The tensions over Hawaii (as well as Japanese naval acquisitions and its win over China) probably helped put it on the radar as a potential opponent.

However, the first draft plan envisioned the main US force movement against Japan would come from the Atlantic fleet transiting through the Mediterranean, Suez Canal and Malacca Straits to fight the Japanese. Forces based in the Pacific were not considered sufficient, and the Panama Canal was not operating yet (nor was Panama, in 1897!).

I'll have to double-check when the navy switched to Pacific route planning, whether it was only with the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914, only when the Great White Fleet of 1907 demonstrated capacity, or at some point earlier in the decade between 1897 and 1907.

 

[Tredecimus]

If US and Japan really go to war, Britain is surely going to be dragged in.

Tension between US and Spain is already high in 1897. The Span-Am War coinciding with a war over Hawaii looks interesting.

 

[Namayan]

In 1897, there was a crisis between Japan and the USA over Hawaii. McKinley was starting with the creation of an annexation treaty which pissed off the Japanese to the point where both sides were considering a war over the islands. Suppose cooler heads don't prevail and Japan goes to war to stop any annexation.

How does an 1897 Pacific war play out? Is the Spanish-American War butterflied away?

I think the end result will totally depend on alliance and size of each navies. I am not aware of the exact stats the IJN or US navy was at 1897. Although I am aware of their respective doctrines, IJN-Ecole ; US navy-Mahan.

I believe whoever Britain sides with wins. Or if it just happens as one on one between US and Japan, the quality and size of their navies and length of war. The first few naval decisive battles will be in favor the IJN, the longer the war becomes the more it favors the US. The most important issue is the Anglo-Japanese alliance had been on the works since OTL 1895. The British will probably help the Japs more than the US.

I do not believe Spanish American war will butterflied away. Cuba is much nearer to mainland than hawaii and within US interests in Cuba more than Hawaii.

 

[TFSmith121]

1897 - the economic, naval, and military balance is 10-1 in the US favor

Worth noting is that (again, according to Bairoch via Kennedy) the US industrial potential in 1900 was 127.8 (relative to UK in 1900 as 100); Japan's was 13.

So, 10-1. Think about that, for a moment.

In an 1897 naval war in the Pacific that focuses on Hawaii, the naval balance in terms of modern (post 1880) ships is pretty much all in the US favor. Here's the breakdown in capital ships, for example:

US: 5 + 1 (Iowa commissioned in 1897)
3 Indiana, Massachusetts, Oregon (Oregon commissioned in 1896; worth noting is the fact she was built in San Francisco)
1 Maine
1 Texas

Japan: 1 + 2 (Fuji and Yashima commissioned in 1897, but being UK-built, neutraility issues come into place; they will probably be commissioned into the RN)
1 Chin' En (ex-Chinese Chen Yuan; unclear when she re-commissioned in the IJN)

The ratios in cruisers (armored and protected), coast defense ships, torpedo craft, etc. are similar; as are the two merchant marines.

Warship tonnages (from Kennedy) were 240,000 vs. 41,000 in 1890, 333,000 to 187,000 in 1900. Japan had far more regular troops than the US (84,000 vs 39,000 in 1890, for example), but given Japan's strategic situation, that's not really surprising. The US was able to mobilize a significant force (250,000 men, including the regulars and the volunteers, both federal and state) in 1898, so that's not really insurmountable. According to the 1895-96 state AG's report, the California Militia alone numbered some 4,700 men, plus another 500 student cadets at Cal, and included a naval militia battalion, complete with the monitor Camanche as a training ship for harbor defense duties.

Realistically, the US could put what we would consider an infantry brigade into Oahu in the space of a month, with as many more troops as anyone would desire to follow, as the Guam and Phillipines expeditions in 1898 make clear; Oregon's passage in 1898 shows the Cape Horn route was eminently practical for ships transiting from the Atlantic to the Pacific and vice versa.

All in all, the Japanese have no chance in a war with the US in 1897.

Of course, they didn't have a chance in 1941, and it didn't stop them then, either...

The interesting question is what does an "early" defeat of the Japanese (in the Nineteenth Century, no less) auger for the Pacific balance of power in the Twentieth Century?

A revanchist Japan that goes all in on the Asian mainland? A democratic Japan that joins the West all in by 1900, rather than 1950?

Interesting possibilities there.

Best,

 

[TFSmith121]

USN and IJN flagships in 1897:

USS Oregon



IJS Chen En

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

USS Oregon



IJS Chen En

damn those are some of the ugliest things ever

 

[TFSmith121]

Oregon has a certain pugnacious yet ship-like quality

Oregon has a certain pugnacious yet ship-like quality; the Japanese ship from Germany by way of China is one of the examples of how the steel and steam revolution led down more than a few blind alleys in the 1870s and 1880s.

Plus, of course, there would have been five USS Plug-Uglies vs one IJS Ugly Maru...

REALLY funny thing about the "US vs. Japan in 1897" is that the Japanese flagship in 1897 had an American commanding officer in 1894, and the Japanese flagship in 1894-95 had an American staff officer who presumably would have been in the USN in 1897, and readily available to advise the USN on the strengths and weaknesses of the IJN...as he was in 1898, as the navy's oldest lieutenant.

And if the "US vs. Japan in 1897" war broke out, the American who had been in command (a couple of years previously) of what would have been the Japanese flagship would have been around to advise the USN on the strengths and weaknesses of said IJN flagship.

Rather than shooting himself in a New York hotel room because of his war wounds...suffered while in service to China.

Of course, the American who was the staff officer aboard the IJN flagship in 1895 might not have survived being the USN's oldest lieutenant, so he would not have ended up (a few years later) marrying (at 74) the 25 year old daughter of his (then) business partner...

Confused yet?

Best,

 

[NHBL]

Alliances, logistics, and determination

In a one on one war, Japan is TOAST if the USA is motivated to see it to a conclusion...the industrial situation leads to no other option. But, in many other circumstances, logistics favor whoever is fighting in their own back yard--World War II style fleet trains are in the future.

That said, alliances are critical--who gets who to join in. Britain may choose not to go to war with the USA--Canada is ripe for munching--once again, if the USA gets seriously motivated.

Of course, if Britain allies with one, France may jump in with the other, and then it escalates...

 

[TFSmith121]

Except the Anglo-Japanese Treaty did not

Except the Anglo-Japanese Treaty did not come about until 1902, and its genesis lay entirely in the British desire for a proxy against the Russians in the (north) Western Pacific, not any sort of conflict with the US - and certainly not over Hawaii.

And 1897 is decades after the return of friendly relations between the US and UK, so that's not going to change.

The French, likewise, are nothing but friendly towards the US in the 1890s, and vice-versa; none of the other European powers have anything to gain by supporting the Japanese, either.

Interesting question is what do the Russians do - if the Japanese are idiotic enough to try and mount operations east of the Dateline in an obvious challenge to the US, that opens some opportunities for the Russians in NE Asia (Manchuria-Korea, especially).

The British, I expect, would not be thrilled, but they are not going to intervene, any more than they did historically in 1904-05.

A de facto Russo-American-Chinese alliance against the Japanese is more likely than any other nation's intervention, frankly.

Which crushes the Japanese even more so, and makes the question of how they react to such a defeat even more interesting...

Best,

 

[Namayan]

All in all, the Japanese have no chance in a war with the US in 1897.

In long one on one war, Japan is no match. US already the industrial top dog of the world helps a lot.

Your statistics only mentioned capital ships which we all know aint the focus of Japanese doctrine.

Also statistics is for all US ships regardless if its Pacific or Atlantic. Japan is a one ocean navy while US is a two ocean navy.

You have also disregarded Britain siding with Japan which is more likely in 1897 than Britain siding with US.

Your total focus in capital ships shows the Mahan focus doctrine of the west in the US which was already proven to be a weak doctrine when the Japanese employed Ecole doctrine in OTL.

 

[Namayan]

The British, I expect, would not be thrilled, but they are not going to intervene, any more than they did historically in 1904-05.

A de facto Russo-American-Chinese alliance against the Japanese is more likely than any other nation's intervention, frankly.

Which crushes the Japanese even more so, and makes the question of how they react to such a defeat even more interesting...

Best,

American bias much

 

[Captain Jack]

Your statistics only mentioned capital ships which we all know aint the focus of Japanese doctrine.

But are significant for the reasons I mention below. Essentially if Japan actually wants to oppose the US fleet it needs capital ships.

Also statistics is for all US ships regardless if its Pacific or Atlantic. Japan is a one ocean navy while US is a two ocean navy.

Yes and the US can be expected to deploy all of its ships against Japan in the event of war. It doesn't matter what ocean the American ships are stationed in during peace, just what ocean they are in when the battle happens.

You have also disregarded Britain siding with Japan which is more likely in 1897 than Britain siding with US.

No, it isn't. There is nothing that Japan offers to Britain that is more important than what America offers. This is before the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, it is before the Russo-Japanese War. Japan has no leverage that would force the UK to risk relations with the US for it.

Your total focus in capital ships shows the Mahan focus doctrine of the west in the US which was already proven to be a weak doctrine when the Japanese employed Ecole doctrine in OTL.

Two things, firstly the Jeune Ecole doctrine never proved the Mahanian one to be weak. If anything the opposite was true with countries abandoning the Jeune Ecole by 1910 at the latest. Finally the Jeune Ecole is inherently a doctrine of the weaker power. Its aim is to counter-act and negate the control of the sea possessed by a more powerful navy of battleships. The fast, light torpedo boats attack the battleships while fast, long-ranged, high-speed cruisers destroy his commerce. Japan lacked the fleet of cruisers to perform this function. It also lacked the ability to project force out into the Pacific in the face of American opposition. Japan would be limited to attacking American interests in Asia where it has superiority over the US Navy. The Far Eastern Squadron, that Dewey led in Manilla IOTL, that I believe was based in Hong Kong would seem to be the obvious initial target for the Japanese fleet as it can both achieve a decisive superiority and eliminate the most significant American naval presence in Asian waters. After that there isn't a whole lot Japan can do except wait and prepare for the American fleet to attack.

 

[Green Painting]

A de facto Russo-American-Chinese alliance against the Japanese is more likely than any other nation's intervention, frankly.

I'm not sure about whether the Chinese would be hostile to Japan. The general sentiment the Chinese had immediately after the 1894 War was: "If you can't beat them, join them." There was a genuine admiration for Japan's achievements, a fever of oversea study in Japan which lasted until the next war, and even talks of a confederation in 1898.

As for Russia... They might try an opportunistic land grab, but how large was their presence in the Far East before Siberian Railway was finished? By the time Russian Baltic fleet arrives in The Pacifics, the Americo-Japanese War would be long over.

 

[Wendell]

One wonders how Berlin would take to American victory in a naval war against a power, albeit a second tier one.

 

[Super_Cool]

One wonders how Berlin would take to American victory in a naval war against a power, albeit a second tier one.

Japan was a power? Considering the time period, most countries would just view it as a white country pulverizing an inferior non-white country. Nothing to see here.

The fear of "yellow peril" would probably decrease after an American victory.