Japanese-American Alliance Against Spain

What if, the Japanese, seizing an opportunity to snatch territory (the Philippines and other Spanish islands in the Pacific), formed an alliance with the United States against Spain in the Spanish-American War? According to some sources, Japan and Spain had sour relations. The U.S. accepts this alliance knowing that they won't have to sail around the tips of Argentina and Chile in order to fight Spain; only if the Japanese complacently settled for the Philippines only, would the U.S. have to go after the other Pacific Islands. Come 1945, the Philippines and the other Pacific Islands would be liberated if the Japanese still performed Pearl Harbor; which is another interesting point. Without the Philippines in the way, the Japanese could attack the European colonies without alerting the United States.
 
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US would not form an alliance with japan .they saw japan as a threat and if japan tried without an alliance With Britian or America .Japanese r gonna have a problem with Europeans
 

SinghKing

Banned
US would not form an alliance with japan .they saw japan as a threat and if japan tried without an alliance With Britian or America .Japanese r gonna have a problem with Europeans

Really? The US of Americans already saw Japan as a threat to their interests in the Pacific before 1898- before they even completed their annexation of Hawaii? Please. At this time, the USA would probably see it as an opportunity to increase their trade in East Asia, nothing more- after all, what threat could Japan possibly pose to them at this stage in time?
 
What if, the Japanese, seizing an opportunity to snatch territory (the Philippines and other Spanish islands in the Pacific), formed an alliance with the United States against Spain in the Spanish-American War? According to some sources, Japan and Spain had sour relations. The U.S. accepts this alliance knowing that they won't have to sail around the tips of Argentina and Chile in order to fight Spain; only if the Japanese complacently settled for the Philippines only, would the U.S. have to go after the other Pacific Islands. Come 1945, the Philippines and the other Pacific Islands would be liberated if the Japanese still performed Pearl Harbor; which is another interesting point. Without the Philippines in the way, the Japanese could attack the European colonies without alerting the United States.

If the Phillipines are in Japanese hands then they won't see the need to attack the US. After all, the PI are in an ideal position to interdict Japan and the East Indies/Indochina. If that's not there, then I doubt Japan would see the need for fighting the US or attacking them in a Pearl Harbour style attack.

However, I think it's unreasonable to expect the Americans to give up the only meaningful prize they get in the Pacific, the Philippines, to Japan. Maybe it would be shared in a joint influence sharing agreement, but I can't see the Americans acquiescing to the 'savages' of Japan getting the lion's share of spoils in the Pacific.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
America is unlikely to form such an alliance because:

1) America never formed alliances at the time. With the exception of the Revolutionary War, America had never fought in alliance with anyone (there might be minor exceptions I'm unaware of, if anyone knows of one, let me know)

2) America has no need for the Japanese. Spain is an easy victim and the war is over in a matter of weeks. Why give away territory for nothing?

However, assuming that there is such an alliance, the Japanese are dead meat the day the fighting ends. The Germans, Russians and French will happily sink their little fleet (two battleships and nothing else of importance at the time) and divvy up the loot between themselves

The European powers all loved Spain or at least wanted to be on good terms with her. Spain's geographical position made her important to France for control over the Mediterranean, Austria because Spain had a Hapsburg Queen Regent and Germany because of monarchical solidarity.

This doesn't mean they would intervene against the Americans (France and Germany would have, Russia refused) but against Japan- they'd already done that.

Prior to the war, Germany was most in favor of intervention and remained so afterward. Really can't see the Japanese gaining anything
 
Really? The US of Americans already saw Japan as a threat to their interests in the Pacific before 1898- before they even completed their annexation of Hawaii? Please. At this time, the USA would probably see it as an opportunity to increase their trade in East Asia, nothing more- after all, what threat could Japan possibly pose to them at this stage in time?

American-Japanese relations always had a tinge of caution, however. Japan by the 1890s should be counted as a quickly growing power - they defeated China, took over Formosa, and were looking towards Korea. Both were aware that their paths would cross many times in the future, and likely not as friends. America certainly realised how Japan would be a necessary part in either cooperation or confrontation for increasing American territory across the Pacific - hence the Taft-Katsura Agreement of 1905. When America had the best chance to attack the Spaniards by themselves, I see no reason why they would attempt to ally with the Japanese unless their situation was so dire that it necessitated Japanese help.
 
I've seen it posted a few times where that Spain might sell the Philippines to Japan rather than let the Americans get their hand on them.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
A few points -

America will not seek or sign a formal alliance with Japan for the purposes of the war with Spain.

On the other hand, if Japan jumps in on the American side, America will have to politely put up with it, as long as Japan does not include territorial claims at odds with the Americans.

If the war begins with TR in the Navy and Dewey winning at Manila, that means that the Philippines (and soon Guam) are not going to be on the table for Japan to take. So the most valuable potential prize is gone.

Now Japan could do operations in, and claim, the rest of the Marianas, Carolines and Palau from a war with Spain. America would not really be in a position to strongly object.

It's hard to see those possessions alone being worth it, but then again, Spain is easy meat, and Tokyo could see this as their last chance to get any share of Pacific spoils, given the probability of American annexation of Hawaii and takeover of the Philippines.

The Germans have an interest in those island territories.

As LordKalvert said, there's always the risk of a multi-power European intervention against Japan, that Japan could not withstand.

On the other hand. If the Germans press the issue, they might find, to their chagrin, that they have no French or Russian diplomatic support. It's sort of obvious why France would not support Germany, but in the case of Russia, they had been irritated by Germany's 1897 move into Qingdao. They also have nothing to gain, for themselves, by taking Germany's side.

----If the Spanish-American war begins in the Caribbean without TR and Dewey arranging to be near Manila, then America will might tolerate any level of expansion in the Spanish Pacific that Japan seeks. However, taking the Philippines could be a bigger deal to Europeans than Micronesia, and the British or French or Russians might have enough reason to support the Germans in opposing Japan there. After all, there's enough islands that all the great powers could get some.


--SinghKing - by 1898 Japan was seen as both a trading partner and a potential threat in the United States. There was worry in America in the mid-1890s that Japan and the US might come to blows over Hawaii. The very first contingency planning against Japan took place in 1897. (It actually involved the main US fleet moving from the east coast through Suez to Singapore and Japan rather than via the Pacific- source, War Plan Orange, by Miller). Tensions over Hawaii aside, the US did not necessarily have objections at this time to Japanese aggrandizement in the *western* Pacific.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
A few points -

America will not seek or sign a formal alliance with Japan for the purposes of the war with Spain.

On the other hand, if Japan jumps in on the American side, America will have to politely put up with it, as long as Japan does not include territorial claims at odds with the Americans.

If the war begins with TR in the Navy and Dewey winning at Manila, that means that the Philippines (and soon Guam) are not going to be on the table for Japan to take. So the most valuable potential prize is gone.

Now Japan could do operations in, and claim, the rest of the Marianas, Carolines and Palau from a war with Spain. America would not really be in a position to strongly object.

It's hard to see those possessions alone being worth it, but then again, Spain is easy meat, and Tokyo could see this as their last chance to get any share of Pacific spoils, given the probability of American annexation of Hawaii and takeover of the Philippines.

The Germans have an interest in those island territories.

As LordKalvert said, there's always the risk of a multi-power European intervention against Japan, that Japan could not withstand.

On the other hand. If the Germans press the issue, they might find, to their chagrin, that they have no French or Russian diplomatic support. It's sort of obvious why France would not support Germany, but in the case of Russia, they had been irritated by Germany's 1897 move into Qingdao. They also have nothing to gain, for themselves, by taking Germany's side.

----If the Spanish-American war begins in the Caribbean without TR and Dewey arranging to be near Manila, then America will might tolerate any level of expansion in the Spanish Pacific that Japan seeks. However, taking the Philippines could be a bigger deal to Europeans than Micronesia, and the British or French or Russians might have enough reason to support the Germans in opposing Japan there. After all, there's enough islands that all the great powers could get some.


--SinghKing - by 1898 Japan was seen as both a trading partner and a potential threat in the United States. There was worry in America in the mid-1890s that Japan and the US might come to blows over Hawaii. The very first contingency planning against Japan took place in 1897. (It actually involved the main US fleet moving from the east coast through Suez to Singapore and Japan rather than via the Pacific- source, War Plan Orange, by Miller). Tensions over Hawaii aside, the US did not necessarily have objections at this time to Japanese aggrandizement in the *western* Pacific.

If the Americans are limiting themselves to the Caribbean, that's because they don't care about the Pacific.

If Germany seeks gains only for themselves, then they will have to do it by themselves. But there are several ways of getting help- the French and the Russians might be interested in helping Spain. Spain was furious with the British at this point and a Spanish alliance against the British could be quite valuable. Just geographically its worth wonders. Control over Gibraltar could basically mean the end of the British Mediterranean presence. France and Russia would pay a lot for that

Russia also is beginning to realize her mistake in not crushing Japan during the triple intervention, so getting rid of them serves their interests as well

If the Spanish want the Philippines back- a restoration is possible with Germany getting some of the islands, perhaps France gets Taiwan or that could go Russian and the French and Spanish partition Morocco

There would be complications especially as Italian interests are going to have to be taken into account. A German-Italian intervention would be enough to defeat Japan so there's that option as well

Lots of possibilities, lots of complications
 
America is unlikely to form such an alliance because:

1) America never formed alliances at the time. With the exception of the Revolutionary War, America had never fought in alliance with anyone (there might be minor exceptions I'm unaware of, if anyone knows of one, let me know)
1823, combined operations by RN & USN against Cuba-based pirates.
 
Possibly a closer Anglo-Japanese Alliance leads to a stronger Japan that challenges Spain to show they are a strong, independent power and not a British protectorate/puppet.

The UK basically tells France/Russia, leave Japan be or we shall get involved. This could keep them as a pro-Spanish neutral that supplies them with arms and letting them use supply posts but not soldiers or ships.

The US, seeing that Japan will snatch up parts of the Pacific, decides to sign a very brief alliance treaty to give them the chance to snatch the Spanish Caribbean holdings, while Japan gets the lions share of the Spanish pacific holdings, possibly making deals with the Filipino rebels for the Philippines to be a protectorate in exchange for the rebels help in taking the Philippines.

By the wars end Japan gets a chunk of the Spanish pacific holdings, the United States get the Caribbean and maybe a few pacific islands. After the war the American-Japanese alliance treaty ends and both powers begin to become rivals.

With the stronger Japan backed by the UK and with possibility of the US being allies France/Germany/Russia grumble but leave Japan alone.

Thoughts?
 
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