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Japan would be embargoed by western powers by January 1, 1943, over the China war, even if Japan had not gone in to Indochina or USSR?

a) Yes
b) No

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A quick recap of OTL is necessary here.

Despite escalating moral outrage at the Japanese invasion of China, US-Japanese trade continued and even expanded. From late 39 or early 1940 some embargoing of specialized refined products began, but selling of raw materials continued unabated.

However, when Japan began demonstrating an agenda beyond China, by occupying northern French Indochina and joining the Tripartite Pact with Germany in late 1940, the US turned things up to a whole new level, embargoing scrap metal.

In July 1941 when Japan occupied southern Indochina, a move of no real utility for the China war, but a potential jumping off point against the British empire, the US embargoed oil and froze Japan's financial assets in the US.

Once these were in place, the US essentially demanded that the Japanese not just remove the proximate provocations of the latest embargoes, the occupation of Indochina and Tripartite Pact, but also the war and occupation in China.

...so in the alternative- Japan is plugging away in its private war against China through 1940, 1941 and 1942, but *not* moving south or north to get entangled with the global war between the Germans, British Empire and later Soviet Union. Is moral outrage alone over China building up to the point that the US feels it has to embargo Japan and freeze its assets before 1942 is over.
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