Japan without WWII

Valdemar II

Banned
What if WWII didn't happen, lets say Hitler fails in his quest to power. How would Japan look like?

I think that Japan would start the war in China, but in the end fail, the communist would take power in China with Soviet help. But Japan would keep Taiwan and Korea, while Manchua would become a Japanese puppet/ally, which would become more and more independent, but with a large Japanese middleclass minority.
 
Japan's adventurism in China still would likely have led to the western oil embargo, which would probably have led to hostilities with at least the US, and probably the UK, France, and the Netherlands as well.

Faced with an entanglement in China and the full power of the UK and USA, Japan would lose this war more quickly than in OTL. The difference is that, absent an alliance with Germany the war would be a regional conflict.

Because it would not be seen in the west as part of a global conflict against an "axis of evil" aimed at world conquest, it is much more likely the US and its allies would settle for negotiated terms rather than unconditional surrender. They would demand the return of any of their colonies conquered by Japan and China would (Reds or Nationalists) would be in a position to reassert control over Manchuria, unless the USSR also intervened in the war at took Manchuria for themselves. Japan might get to keep Korea and Formosa if these territories have not first been occupied by China or one of the allied states. It is unlikely the allies would give anything back they have already occupied. Japan would lose all of its military bases in the Pacific Islands - this would be demanded by the US and Japan would be in no position to argue. Some sort of Versailles-like treaty limiting Japanese naval, aviation, and military strength to that required for reasonable national defense and defense of any remaining overseas interests Japan might be allowed to keep. Probably not as draconian as OTL, but I would suspect the Imperial Navy would be substantially reduced in power and certain types of offensive weapons (aircraft carriers, long-range bombers, etc) eliminated. Japan would not be occupied, and unless there was an internal revolution, no change in its basic political system.
 
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