Japan wins WW2, behavior and future of Co-Prosperity Sphere?

[Grumpy young Man]

Presuming that inside the Sphere there are; Philippines, entire China, Indochina and Indonesia.

Relations with Russia are top priority ( cordial at least ) and Moscow doesn't have any large ambitions on the area, so no direct pressure.

What is the behavior in the coming decades of such a system? Surely Tokio wouldn't be that short sighted to stick to its brutal resource draining policies and not offering something in return. One spark of dissent and everything would come down, no matter how loyal the set up client state is.

And mostly, what of China, would she be united under one government or such a state would be deemed far too powerful as an individual in the eyes of the Japan? What were their political plans for China IRL, anyway in case of victory? Tnx.

 

[DTanza]

The entirety of China will never be under a Japanese sphere of influence.

 

[Otis R. Needleman]

Japan winning in WWII is more ASB, because that would have been needed. No way could Japan have beaten us in WWII. At most, they could have held us up longer and made it bloodier but once they hit Pearl Harbor their asses were grass and we were going to mow the lawn.

 

[CalBear]

The difficulty with this is that, well, its impossible.

The Japanese were never going to defeat the Chinese. Forget about the fact that the U.S. was going to steamroll them, or that the British would have wound up defeating them in the medium term, once the Reich was defeated, even without U.S. assistance (would have taken considerably longer than the U.S. managed, but it's pretty much a certainty), or that even the Dutch would have been able to retake the DEI with just a bit of logistical assistance from the Australians, the IJA was never going to defeat the Chinese. Never.

The above being said...

The Japanese would have utterly failed as a colonial ruler. They lacked, even with the resources they would have had in hand, the industrial capacity to control that large of a territory. Unlike the Nazis, who grabbed the production of most of Europe for their use, the Japanese captured mostly dirt, okay for food production but lacking any pre-built infrastructure worthy of the term. Japan was completely incapable of producing sufficient shipping to even transport the raw materials it had captures (there is a reason, even before the American submarine campaign started to bite, that the IJN forward deployed as many heavy fleet units close to the DEI as possible, namely that they lacked the tanker capacity to move the fuel to the Home Islands). Ironically, even though one of the things the Japanese expected to get from their conquests was additional food for the Home Islands, they found that they had to actually supply troops in most of the area with rations since food production in the conquered regions was barely sufficient for local need.

The remarkably heavy handed way that the Japanese governed their conquests also made their long term success questionable, at best. They would have faced constant low intensity warfare, low production, and probably lack of workers due to excessive fatalities. It is sometimes forgotten that the MONTHLY death rate among civilians in areas under IJA control is estimated to have been as high as 100,000, even in 1945.

Lastly, and perhaps most critically, the Japanese would have wound up having to fight either the U.S. (anyone who thinks the U.S. would have accepted any sort of long term Japanese control of the Pacific hasn't been paying attention to the last 130 or so years of history) or the USSR who would not have suffered a long border with the Japanese gladly, especially after they had crushed the Reich, possibly, even likely, both. The end result of that sort of conflict is certain, and it would not be one that Toyko would find pleasant.

 

[Lord Grattan]

The forces of the Empire of Japan were in no way capable of defeating the United States in war and enveloping all of China, The Philippines, Indochina and Indonesia within its sphere of military & political influence.

... snip ... Relations with Russia are top priority ( cordial at least ) and Moscow doesn't have any large ambitions on the area, so no direct pressure. ... snip ...

Were Japan able to accomplish this most impossible feat, you better believe that the USSR's ambitions in Asia would rise in importance and that the Soviets would exert a fair amount of pressure upon Japan's possessions from the North & West.

 

[theman from the ministery]

Snip.

How do you reckon Japan would have fared in a one on one with the Dutch Calbear? Or is such a senario ASB with a POD in the late '30s early '40s?

 

[CalBear]

How do you reckon Japan would have fared in a one on one with the Dutch Calbear? Or is such a senario ASB with a POD in the late '30s early '40s?

Straight up, with OTL conditions the Dutch would have problems, simply due to logistics if for no other reason. The Dutch navy was in no shape to go head to head with the IJN, and it is hard to see how it ever could have been, the cost to construct a counterforce to the Kido Butai alone would have been enough to bankrupt the Netherlands. This is why I mentioned that the Dutch would need at least logistical support from the Australians, they would require somewhere to use as a build-up/jump off point.

Now, assuming no European War, or post war, it would have been possible for the Dutch to have sufficient air and ground forces (especially if the Dutch decided to use some light armor, even armored cars with 37mm or 45mm guns, as a reasonable part of their deployed force) in place to defend against the IJN, at least to the point that the planning for the invasion would have been questionable.

It is worth remembering that the Japanese were able to make their advance because the European powers were pretty much fully occupied (in the case of the Dutch, in more than one sense) with the European War, and had virtually nothing to spare. In the case of the DEI the administration of the colony was more or less on its own, with no real hope of help from home or even from other Dutch colonies, all the Government in Exile could offer was moral support.

 

[TheMann]

As others have pointed out, Japan couldn't have held on to the Co-Prosperity Sphere for any length of time. The simple fact was that they never had the ability to logistically supply their outposts in the face of real opposition, a fact that the USN used to destroy them with the submarine forces. They would have to not pick a fight with the US, as America would easily build up enough forces to destroy the Japanese pretty easily, which is exactly what happened in OTL. Pearl Harbor was the beginning of the end.

Assume the US stays out, you still get the Japanese Army bogged down badly in China, and as soon as Hitler has been defeated the British are gonna come, bringing the Dutch and the Canadians and the Australians and the Indians and the French with them, and they will have logistical support through the eyeballs. The Dutch East Indies would be invaded from Australia, probably with the RN and the French Navy looking to wipe out the IJN (and almost certainly succeeding) in the process. The DEI being taken back makes it nearly impossible for Japan to get oil, which when combined with their Navy getting gutted would make for huge problems for them. Singapore would go down pretty quickly, followed by a long march from India and Singapore through southeast Asia and China. The Japanese would have to not touch the Philippines - American territory in 1941, don't forget - which would make their logistical problems even more immense. Mao and Chiang would get a fresh and quite big infusion of supplies, and when combined with the British Empire forces means big trouble for the Japanese - without the Japanese having enormous fuel supplies, they'd clear out China of the IJA in six months, a year tops. Then on to Korea, and eventually to Kyushu - by which point the British would probably have the bomb, they use it, and the war's over.

 

[TheGingerninja41]

I've always thought the best possible outcome for Japan in ww2 would be a coup where the most insane members of the Japanese high command are killed and troops are withdrawn from china. They can easily stay the neighborhood friendly fascists up to modern day. Think of the economic boom Japan went through postwar and imagine of they hadn't suffered any bomb damage whatsoever or lost so many working age men. The US has no qualms in dealing with fascists when it is in our interest, I imagine relations would be fantastic. The US will certainly rather deal with an enormously productive trading partner Japan than red china. I think the economic head start the Japanese will enjoy could easily get them into space. I could see this Japan widely regarded as the winners of the Cold War.
Even better what if the Cold War goes hot in the 70's and Japan goes unscathed while the US and Russia send each other back to the Stone Age. Then and only then can the Japanese hope to create their Co-Prosperity sphere.

 

[TheGingerninja41]

P.S
They cannot invade Indonesia or any islands close to US economic or military interests without killing themselves in the process. In this case slow and steady will win the race.

 

[Sabot Cat]

I don't think Japan winning World War II is Alien Space Bats or even implausible.

Basically: Hitler is assassinated in 1939, and because Goering distrusts Japan as an ally, the KMT continues to be in an alliance with Nazi Germany. Thus by the principle of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", Japan becomes a part of the allies, making an alliance with the British Empire, with which they shared amicable relations and a shared dislike of the Nationalist Chinese government (because the Nationalist government revoked foreign concessions imposed by Britain on China). This would mean no 1941 pacific campaign against Allied-held territories, which might be beneficial in concentrating resources on the Second Sino-Japanese War. With the help of the UK (and probably the other Allies, considering they occupy a similar position as the Republic of China in OTL), Japan would "liberate" China from the "Nazi-sympathizing" KMT. It would not be unlike the Eight Nation Alliance during the Boxer Rebellion, atrocities and all.

 

[LNSS]

So much determinism ITT.

Maybe Japan doesn't pick up a fight against the US and the OP stated the USSR is friendly, maybe Japan joins the allies while China joins the axis, they take Indonesia and Indochina to 'protect' them from the nazis while France and Netherlands are occupied, maybe domination of China post-war means the enterity of the mainland but through several smaller states such as Manchuria.

Maybe pressure from its allies allows the Co-Prosperity Sphere to eventually democratize and turn into a sort of proto-EU.

 

[Vingilótë]

I don't think Japan winning World War II is Alien Space Bats or even implausible.

Basically: Hitler is assassinated in 1939, and because Goering distrusts Japan as an ally, the KMT continues to be in an alliance with Nazi Germany. Thus by the principle of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", Japan becomes a part of the allies, making an alliance with the British Empire, with which they shared amicable relations and a shared dislike of the Nationalist Chinese government (because the Nationalist government revoked foreign concessions imposed by Britain on China). This would mean no 1941 pacific campaign against Allied-held territories, which might be beneficial in concentrating resources on the Second Sino-Japanese War. With the help of the UK (and probably the other Allies, considering they occupy a similar position as the Republic of China in OTL), Japan would "liberate" China from the "Nazi-sympathizing" KMT. It would not be unlike the Eight Nation Alliance during the Boxer Rebellion, atrocities and all.

Even so, this still runs into the fundamental problems of a Pacific dominant Japan raising the ire of the US and the UK far more than even an openly Nazi-supported China (much less one that just doesn't have the supply line cut off) ever could. The problem isn't so much that Japan attacked the US and the UK, it's that Japan's path was drawing them directly into conflict with the US and the UK. There's also the fact that generally, it was held in the US long before Pearl Harbor that China had the unquestionable moral high ground over Japan. After the 1930s, nobody could even for a nanosecond take seriously Japan's propaganda about "Liberating Asia from the West" (something which also is going to effectively drive away the US and the UK).

 

[Sabot Cat]

Even so, this still runs into the fundamental problems of a Pacific dominant Japan raising the ire of the US and the UK far more than even an openly Nazi-supported China (much less one that just doesn't have the supply line cut off) ever could. The problem isn't so much that Japan attacked the US and the UK, it's that Japan's path was drawing them directly into conflict with the US and the UK.
There's also the fact that generally, it was held in the US long before Pearl Harbor that China had the unquestionable moral high ground over Japan. After the 1930s, nobody could even for a nanosecond take seriously Japan's propaganda about "Liberating Asia from the West" (something which also is going to effectively drive away the US and the UK).

Well, if your options as the United States are a Nazi-allied China, a Soviet-allied China, and a UK-allied Japan, who would you go with? The Allies had no trouble with cooperating with the USSR despite their horrendous human rights record, why not the Empire of Japan?

 

[TheGingerninja41]

I don't think Japan winning World War II is Alien Space Bats or even implausible.

Basically: Hitler is assassinated in 1939, and because Goering distrusts Japan as an ally, the KMT continues to be in an alliance with Nazi Germany. Thus by the principle of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", Japan becomes a part of the allies, making an alliance with the British Empire, with which they shared amicable relations and a shared dislike of the Nationalist Chinese government (because the Nationalist government revoked foreign concessions imposed by Britain on China). This would mean no 1941 pacific campaign against Allied-held territories, which might be beneficial in concentrating resources on the Second Sino-Japanese War. With the help of the UK (and probably the other Allies, considering they occupy a similar position as the Republic of China in OTL), Japan would "liberate" China from the "Nazi-sympathizing" KMT. It would not be unlike the Eight Nation Alliance during the Boxer Rebellion, atrocities and all.

Britain will be bankrupt by the end of the war and in no position to attempt to subdue china, why would they commit such a massive pile of resources into doing something that will only amount in increasing Japanese power in Asia and hurting their own. That is very much ASB.
No matter who's running the place imperial Japan simply cannot hold china for any period of time before being kicked out by the KMT, the Reds, or even the Russians. Nobody wants a bigger Japanese sphere of influence other than the Japanese, no one is going to help them when they have bigger fish to fry.
Nazi friendly china is a very interesting concept though, they are in a much better position to go on a very dramatic conquering spree worthy of a timeline and much more likely to hold onto what they take.

 

[Vingilótë]

Well, if your options are a Nazi-allied China, a Soviet-allied China, and a UK-allied Japan in World War II, who would you go with?

Nation-building in China, and wait for the UK-Japanese alliance to fall apart again. I'd give it around a year, tops, after they've somehow concluded their interests don't collide when all evidence is to the contrary.

 

[TheGingerninja41]

Peace and love are the only way Tojo will survive into the sixties

 

[Narnia]

Are freak natural disasters always ASB? Maybe USA is hit by a meteor or massive earthquake and has to pull out of the war, leading Japan to win. I still don't think they could hold China or expand any further though...

 

[Sabot Cat]

Britain will be bankrupt by the end of the war and in no position to attempt to subdue china, why would they commit such a massive pile of resources into doing something that will only amount in increasing Japanese power in Asia and hurting their own. That is very much ASB.

OTL Allies (including Britain) intervened in favor of China against Japan in the Second Sino-Japanese War, despite the costly war already being waged.

No matter who's running the place imperial Japan simply cannot hold china for any period of time before being kicked out by the KMT, the Reds, or even the Russians. Nobody wants a bigger Japanese sphere of influence other than the Japanese, no one is going to help them when they have bigger fish to fry.

But who wants a bigger Soviet or Nazi sphere of influence?

Nazi friendly china is a very interesting concept though, they are in a much better position to go on a very dramatic conquering spree worthy of a timeline and much more likely to hold onto what they take.

The KMT supported by Nazis without the Allies supporting Japan could result in the Second Sino-Japanese War being won by the Republic of China, who could go on to win the Chinese Civil War. That would be interesting!

Nation-building in China, and wait for the UK-Japanese alliance to fall apart again. I'd give it around a year, tops, after they've somehow concluded their interests don't collide when all evidence is to the contrary.

Why would an isolationist United States do any "nation-building"?

 

[Vingilótë]

Why would an isolationist United States do any "nation-building"?

Isolationism was a dying movement by the late 30s, and was pretty much dead by the 40s, for the eminently good reason that it was patently short-sighted and idiotic.