Japan wins in China, Would it form a third faction in the cold war

Japan has no where near the industrial resources of the USSR, so they'll take significantly longer .

Japan has about half the GDP of the USSR but unlike the USSR
in this POD Japan is not suffering any devastation

(not to mention no spies in the Manhattan Project).

True which saved the Russian an estimated two years but Japan does not need this extra time as Japan nuclear project was already well underway in 1943 and it was making fine progress. Unlike the OTL, this project would not be stopped.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program

I am sure that the Japanese could match the Russians.
 
Japan has about half the GDP of the USSR but unlike the USSR
in this POD Japan is not suffering any devastation
Industrial resources=/=GDP. Things like the financial sector can contribute huge amounts to GDP but jack to industry

Kennedy has Japan at 25% the USSR's Industrial resources in 1939. Now industry in European Russia got wrecked to a degree, but lend lease actually included industrial goods along with weapons, food and raw materials, and the USSR got to loot Eastern Europe of its industry, so ratio would not change that much
 
How would decolonizatoin go? One of the main things we have to think of here is whether or not the Japanese took advantage of WWII to get more easy gains. If non-Yamato-supremacists get in charge of Japan (maybe just civilians, with an army or navy that is loyal to the government and people, rather than constantly murdering elected officials) who look out for Japanese people and their livelihood but give a better deal for Asians in general. Even if the Japanese didn't annex loads of land, simply helping liberate people all across Southeast Asia, the gratitude would go on for generations. The Japanese could even try to get the hegemon role China had, though obviously it wouldn't happen fully. Getting ties with Latin America would be helpful, though the Japanese would need something to offer.
 
How would decolonizatoin go? One of the main things we have to think of here is whether or not the Japanese took advantage of WWII to get more easy gains. If non-Yamato-supremacists get in charge of Japan (maybe just civilians, with an army or navy that is loyal to the government and people, rather than constantly murdering elected officials) who look out for Japanese people and their livelihood but give a better deal for Asians in general. Even if the Japanese didn't annex loads of land, simply helping liberate people all across Southeast Asia, the gratitude would go on for generations. The Japanese could even try to get the hegemon role China had, though obviously it wouldn't happen fully. Getting ties with Latin America would be helpful, though the Japanese would need something to offer.

Issue: this policy flies in the face of the reason Japan was pursuing control over the mainland. Unlike the US or USSR, Japan had a very limited resource base in its homeland and was facing major food pressures to keep the Home Islands fed. Farmers settled in Korea and Manchuko was vital for providing the nessicery rice. Merely liberating colonies won't be enough if it dosen't come with exclusive access to their raw materials.
 

raharris1973

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Japan could form a third faction even if it was the weakest of the three. In OTL even China, much less advanced and with no navy to speak of, formed a third faction of sorts.
 
Japan could form a third faction even if it was the weakest of the three. In OTL even China, much less advanced and with no navy to speak of, formed a third faction of sorts.

And who pray tell was definitely in this faction? You can't have a power Bloc with just one member
 

raharris1973

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And who pray tell was definitely in this faction? You can't have a power Bloc with just one member

Why mighty Albania, Cambodia, Pakistan, others like North Korea and North Vietnam were part time members. so was Sukarno’s Indonesia for a few years and Ben Bella’s Algeria, in addition to multiple insurgencies or non ruling communist parties on every continent.
 
Industrial resources=/=GDP. Things like the financial sector can contribute huge amounts to GDP but jack to industry

Kennedy has Japan at 25% the USSR's Industrial resources in 1939. Now industry in European Russia got wrecked to a degree, but lend lease actually included industrial goods along with weapons, food and raw materials, and the USSR got to loot Eastern Europe of its industry, so ratio would not change that much

50% looks okay t me
http://www.zuljan.info/articles/0302wwiigdp.html
 
Why mighty Albania, Cambodia, Pakistan, others like North Korea and North Vietnam were part time members. so was Sukarno’s Indonesia for a few years and Ben Bella’s Algeria, in addition to multiple insurgencies or non ruling communist parties on every continent.

I doubt these would join Japan's bloc except North Korea and that is not willingly
 
Again GDP =/= Industrial Capacity. Things like the service industry can contribute to GDP but matter jack as far as industry goes

This page has a table of data pulled from Kennedy Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pg 332 in my edition, admittedly 1937 not 1939. It shows the USSR had a good 4x the war making potential of Japan, 14% of the world share rather than 3.5%
 

iddt3

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Yeaaah, Japan has a giant sucking chest wound in China, not an Empire. They couldn't beat China in OTL when they were able to leverage french and British weakness to completely cut off the Chinese, they don't have that here (because otherwise they get pulled into WWII). As for Japan getting Nukes on the same timeline as the USSR, that's a pipe dream as well, given the need to build a gigantic navy, army and keep the war in China going, w/o the extra resources of conquered territory to draw on.

The Japanese economy isn't self sufficient even with Manchuria, and they're going to get embargoed just like OTL. Either they provoke a war they can't win with the US/USSR, or collapse under the the weight of the war in China in the early 50s, after spending a generation's blood and treasure fighting a proxy war with two actual super powers and a nation with several times their population that hates their guts.
 
Again GDP =/= Industrial Capacity. Things like the service industry can contribute to GDP but matter jack as far as industry goes

This page has a table of data pulled from Kennedy Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pg 332 in my edition, admittedly 1937 not 1939. It shows the USSR had a good 4x the war making potential of Japan, 14% of the world share rather than 3.5%

Please what is Kennedy's measurement of "war making" means? Japan has a major plus and/or minus, that as it is more involved in world trade then Russia this would give it an advantage as long as the trade continues and Japan was able to devote a greater percentage of her economy to war (70%) than Russia (44%)
 
Please what is Kennedy's measurement of "war making" means? Japan has a major plus and/or minus, that as it is more involved in world trade then Russia this would give it an advantage as long as the trade continues and Japan was able to devote a greater percentage of her economy to war (70%) than Russia (44%)
He quotes the table from someone else, Hillman "Comparative Strength of the Great Powers", World in March 1939 P 442. Presumably he weights a variety of factors, given the book we can guess at things like coal and steel production, maybe aluminum, motor vehicles, electricity

However on page 330 Kennedy has a table of world manufacturing output in 1938, USSR 17.6%, Japan 3.8%, so 4.6x in USSR's favor regarding industry
 
He quotes the table from someone else, Hillman "Comparative Strength of the Great Powers", World in March 1939 P 442.

Presumably he weights a variety of factors, given the book we can guess at things like coal and steel production, maybe aluminum, motor vehicles, electricity

I think it may include manpower factors too. I know several studies I have seen on such ratios that include these too.


However on page 330 Kennedy has a table of world manufacturing output in 1938, USSR 17.6%, Japan 3.8%, so 4.6x in USSR's favor regarding industry

If you look at this wikipedia page, the Japanese are doing better then this, I would suggest because of their higher percentage that she was able to contribute of her economy to war than Russia.

The other point is that a nuclear bomb program does not need the whole economy but only a small part.
 
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