Japan wins in China, Would it form a third faction in the cold war

I think the only way this could plausibly work would be with a German victory in WW2's European front, greatly diminishing the USSR's fighting capability and, thus, their capability to intervene in Manchuria. Japan, thus, has more free troops to use against the US, the Chinese and other insurgents, and, with lots of luck sprinkled on top, manages to hold on to its (below the surface, not so) shiny new empire.
 
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But it is still possible that Germany doesn't lose. The Soviets had lost a lot of men and it could end in a stalemate.

Not very likely. Hitler could never allow a controlled retreat to a stable defensive line and after Bagration he didn't have much more than smoke and mirrors to throw at the Reds. After Stalingrad and especially Kursk the Germans weren't doing much better than 1:1 for casualties which doesn't work against the Soviets.

Of course a Japan that wins in China has some incentive to bite the Reds in the back but I think the Kwantung Army will have its hands full just pacifying occupied China.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
Guys your all forgetting something. NUKES. all Japan has to do is support both sides of the chinese civil war to drag the war out long enough to get enough nukes to be a existential threat. From what ive read anout the subject Japans nuke program was even farther along than the nazis and all they were missing was Uranium witch should be pretty easy to trade for once the entire planet stops murdering each other. If the KMT starts funding chinese rebels all they need to do is say stop or shanghai gets a dose of instant sunshine.
 
Guys your all forgetting something. NUKES. all Japan has to do is support both sides of the chinese civil war to drag the war out long enough to get enough nukes to be a existential threat. From what ive read anout the subject Japans nuke program was even farther along than the nazis and all they were missing was Uranium witch should be pretty easy to trade for once the entire planet stops murdering each other. If the KMT starts funding chinese rebels all they need to do is say stop or shanghai gets a dose of instant sunshine.
Nah, it'd be wiser to send a bomber to whatever inner city is the last capital of the KMT (Xining?) and create instant sunshine there instead.
Japan can only coerce her Chinese puppet government so much, especially considering the trouble the IJA already had in pacifying it.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
Nah, it'd be wiser to send a bomber to whatever inner city is the last capital of the KMT (Xining?) and create instant sunshine there instead.
Japan can only coerce her Chinese puppet government so much, especially considering the trouble the IJA already had in pacifying it.
Thats what I meant. I just mistakingly thought shanghai was further south than it actually was.
 
Unlikely. A curtain of b
Nah, it'd be wiser to send a bomber to whatever inner city is the last capital of the KMT (Xining?) and create instant sunshine there instead.
Japan can only coerce her Chinese puppet government so much, especially considering the trouble the IJA already had in pacifying it.

Is this really a preceident Japan wants to set? Establishing that nukes are valid for convential use has some... unfortunate implications for Europeans trying to disrupt independence attempts in their own colonies: a hold which would be much tighter without wartime Japanese occupation. What happens when, with the threat of Japanese influence expanding kicks in and tickles America's Freedom Senses (Which are bound to be stronger in an active cold war rivalry with Japan as a perceived threat), they decide to drop "Instant Sunshine" on Indonesian or Indochinese Nationalists, or backing an anti-Japanese rebellion in Siam?
 

Chimera0205

Banned
Unlikely. A curtain of b


Is this really a preceident Japan wants to set? Establishing that nukes are valid for convential use has some... unfortunate implications for Europeans trying to disrupt independence attempts in their own colonies: a hold which would be much tighter without wartime Japanese occupation. What happens when, with the threat of Japanese influence expanding kicks in and tickles America's Freedom Senses (Which are bound to be stronger in an active cold war rivalry with Japan as a perceived threat), they decide to drop "Instant Sunshine" on Indonesian or Indochinese Nationalists, or backing an anti-Japanese rebellion in Siam?
Well they dpnt have to ACTUALLY drop one on china. Just threaten to. Or better yet drop one on an empty fied near the city just to show that the threat is real.
 
Well they dpnt have to ACTUALLY drop one on china. Just threaten to. Or better yet drop one on an empty fied near the city just to show that the threat is real.

Maybe you could get the first. Though given the Nationalist have nothing left to lose and know they can fight if Tokyo is bluffing, they probaly just call it and count on the Japanese likely blinking under American and Soviet condemnation. But the later is just a very expensive way to draw the same international hatred and strech out the crisis longer. If you're willing to jump the shark, better to just go fast and decisive.
 
Nukes are not much help in the fighting an insurgency warfare eg Afghanistan, Israel and India. This is particularly true if both sides have it in this case both the USSR and whatever arises in the *free China* will have them too.
 
But it is still possible that Germany doesn't lose. The Soviets had lost a lot of men and it could end in a stalemate.

By the time America involved itself in Europe, the Soviets were already on Poland. Without the USA, the Soviets might as well have pushed all the way to the Pyrenees.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
Nukes are not much help in the fighting an insurgency warfare eg Afghanistan, Israel and India. This is particularly true if both sides have it in this case both the USSR and whatever arises in the *free China* will have them too.
Free chinas not getting nukes anytime soon unless someone out right gives them to em. OTL they didnt get them till the late 60s and thats without them losing half there damn country and without the civil war lasting significantly longer than OTL as it likely will in this TL. And Stalin hated Mao and certainly isnt gonna risk starting a god damn nuclear war to save him
 
Guys your all forgetting something. NUKES. all Japan has to do is support both sides of the chinese civil war to drag the war out long enough to get enough nukes to be a existential threat. From what ive read anout the subject Japans nuke program was even farther along than the nazis and all they were missing was Uranium witch should be pretty easy to trade for once the entire planet stops murdering each other. If the KMT starts funding chinese rebels all they need to do is say stop or shanghai gets a dose of instant sunshine.
A nuke program is a very expensive thing. By the time they'd have enough resources to divert to a nuke program, it'd be the mid-1950s and who knows what the geopolitical situation will look like by then.
 
Free chinas not getting nukes anytime soon unless someone out right gives them to em. OTL they didnt get them till the late 60s and thats without them losing half there damn country and without the civil war lasting significantly longer than OTL as it likely will in this TL. And Stalin hated Mao and certainly isnt gonna risk starting a god damn nuclear war to save him

Then have him "disappeared" or covertly supply a rival to seize control of the movement, or back the Generalisimo instead of the Chairman in exchange for him adopting Soviet friendly policies. Free China isent in a position to be both a begger and chooser, and Stalin would like essentially anybody more than the puppet in Nanjing.
 
Free chinas not getting nukes anytime soon unless someone out right gives them to em. OTL they didnt get them till the late 60s and thats without them losing half there damn country and without the civil war lasting significantly longer than OTL as it likely will in this TL. And Stalin hated Mao and certainly isnt gonna risk starting a god damn nuclear war to save him


I would assume that Japan would get nukes about the same time as Russia, so about 1950 and the *Free China* as in the OTL of about 1965.
 
Free chinas not getting nukes anytime soon unless someone out right gives them to em. OTL they didnt get them till the late 60s and thats without them losing half there damn country and without the civil war lasting significantly longer than OTL as it likely will in this TL. And Stalin hated Mao and certainly isnt gonna risk starting a god damn nuclear war to save him

I agree Japan is going to have a problem. Consider this China today has about 1.4 billion and that is with Mao birth control policies in place, the Japanese Empire has about 350+ million people, I estimated and no-one disputed that figure. So we are looking at about 4 times the population.

Now let me do a very simple first level approximation of Japan's empire GDP

Japan/GDP per capita today 38,894 USD

Japan GDP = 38,894 USD x 350 million = $13.6 trillion Hold this thought

Scenario 1: The communist come to power.

I am not sure what the US would do if China went communist, Japan vs Russia is a difficult choice for them. Japan would have an advantage here of being a huge market which would be very attractive to many in the US and some of the US allies like Australia assuming the Japanese do not try to expand. Mao is as you state much weaker here. One problem here is that its hard to imagine that Japan would get sit there and allow a red government under Mao form. If it did and the Chinese do as well as the OTL

Today China/ GDP per capita 8,123 USD

Now if we take $8,123 x 1.4 billion = $11.4 trillion is China GDP

China has 4 times the population and approx the same GDP but....

Scenario 2: The Nationalist come to power.

The US would like in Tawan support it. The Nationalist were very good economic managers and I would expect that China would quickly recover.

Taiwan/GDP per capita 31,900 USD
Now if we take $31,900 x 1.4 billion = $44.7 trillion is China GDP

China has 4 times the population and approx the 3.3 times its GDP

The Japanese Empire is in serious trouble if China here does want the land back plus a rich and democratic China (as Tawan is today) here would be very attractive to the Chinese under Japanese rule.
 
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Say Japan wins in China before 1940 and craves out a puppet state in Northern China

Would Japan form a third faction during the cold war or would it ally with Western or Eastern blocs
We need more specifics. Is that all they get? Read before of a state called Jehol(think it was that, other maps say Hebei) that was annexed to Manchuko when its usefulness ran out or something. Now, is the rest of China united? Are there lots of states or cliques? The Japanese would need to make themselves appealing, otherwise you would have plenty of other people courting the Chinese. Plus would the Japanese have attacked or annexed other areas in Asia? The Navy was responsible for a lot of that, wanting glory and budget money for themselves.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puppet_state#Imperial_Japan

https://omniatlas.com/blogs/stray-maps/foreign-support-warlord-china/
 
We need more specifics. Is that all they get? Read before of a state called Jehol(think it was that, other maps say Hebei) that was annexed to Manchuko when its usefulness ran out or something. Now, is the rest of China united? Are there lots of states or cliques? The Japanese would need to make themselves appealing, otherwise you would have plenty of other people courting the Chinese. Plus would the Japanese have attacked or annexed other areas in Asia? The Navy was responsible for a lot of that, wanting glory and budget money for themselves.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puppet_state#Imperial_Japan

https://omniatlas.com/blogs/stray-maps/foreign-support-warlord-china/

For the sake of simplicity, let's assume borders somewhat like these...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reformed_Government_of_the_Republic_of_China

Given I assume the Japanese aren't going to let up or even vaguly be considered "winning" without at least having Shanghai, Nanjing, and Beijing. As for the warlords, by 37' (Which is when the conflict with Japan starts), they're pretty much subordinated to the Kuomintang at this point, especially in the South (Which I imagine the Nationalists are retreating to in the event of the lose; though the far west and Centeral Plains may be liable to re-emerge in the power vacuem as at least semi-autonimous/disobedient regions that court both sides for as much autonomy as possible
 
The best victory scenario for Japan here would be the militarists not taking power (perhaps the Army coup fails and democracy stays, or the Navy takes control instead of the Army, being a more moderate government). Then an actual Great East-Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere is formed, with a nominally independent Korea and Manchuria instead of annexed.

The Chinese civil-war drags on until the late 40s with multiple factions, and results in a divided China. Each of this cliques gradually join the GEACPS in exchange for investments. By the 1950s there are like 6 Chinese states, Manchuria, Korea and Thailand as part of the GEACPS; plus Philippines, India, Pakistan and Burma as asssociate states; Iran, Australia, New Zealand Ecuador, Peru and Chile as observers; and independence movements on Indonesia, Malaya and Indochina looking to join.
 
Japan is probably unable to really constitute its own faction in the Cold War. One thing the US and USSR could agree on was that they disliked Japan more than each other, the USSR because Japan is expansionist, has an actual land border with them, fought them in the late 30's and of course they remember 1904. The US because Japan actually has a navy, is expansionist and is near their colonies

Until WWII was basically won, the USSR supported the KMT more than the communists. So once WWII ends the KMT will be getting aid from the US and USSR to get its act together.

Japan also has the issues that it has much less industry and raw materials than the USSR, even with the losses the USSR took, before those the USSR had about 4x the potential of Japan. Japan also has a much nastier strategic position, they have to simultaneously have both a big Army to fight the USSR and a big Navy to fight the USA, plus an ongoing guerilla war of large scale. And of course their Army and Navy hate each other to the point of assassinations and are almost impossible to control and can collapse the government at will. This really looks like a recipe for Japan to spend itself into bankruptcy real quick

TL;DR to get Japan able to form its own side in the Cold War, you need PoDs early enough it probably butterflies the Cold War
 
I would assume that Japan would get nukes about the same time as Russia, so about 1950 and the *Free China* as in the OTL of about 1965.
Japan has no where near the industrial resources of the USSR, so they'll take significantly longer (not to mention no spies in the Manhattan Project).
 
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