Japan wins in China, Would it form a third faction in the cold war

Say Japan wins in China before 1940 and craves out a puppet state in Northern China

Would Japan form a third faction during the cold war or would it ally with Western or Eastern blocs
 
It is an interesting POD.

Assuming Japan keeps Northern China, we are talking of a population thereof about 150+ million now under a Japanese puppet rule

But there is a large part of China outside their rule. This *Free China* was a battlefield between the Communist and the KMT. Without the pressure of the Japanese, its anyone game as to who wins. If the Communist then we are looking at a China with a social policy that would drive many to prefer the puppet rule, as semi-free is better to many then communism. Large numbers will flee to the Japanese areas. Conversely those nationalistic Chinese will leave the puppet China to Communist China. This will help Japan. North and South Korea conflict will be a model for the region.

If the KMT win then, it is quite different as Taiwan showed. The KMT is economically an effective force and also partly free too. Nationalist tension will exist in the area under Japanese rule to unite with the KMT. It will not be an easy hold, particularly if, like in Taiwan, KMT become a democratic country.

Korea is about 80 million, is a relatively easy integration for Japan. Being treated as a second-class citizen will however hurt and I expect that they will want out of this union. Still what they want and get are two different things.

Japan is 127 million, so we are looking at a region of about 350+ million people. Its standard of living could be today comparable to the Japan/Korea/Taiwan today so it could if *properly led* be a superpower today.

Having said that, the Japanese were not very diplomatic in their colonial rule, they did upset the locals a lot, so this *properly led* would happen is unlikely. So overall, however, it pans out, I would expect that Japanese rule will not last over this region but we will have

1) One Korea
2) Two Chinas at log ahead
3) A military aggressive Japan.
 

raharris1973

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Would Japan form a third faction during the cold war or would it ally with Western or Eastern blocs

It will be its own faction in the Cold War. It will at least have trade interests globally.

It will have less universalist appeal than either the USSR and USA, but could market itself successfully at least to those people not directly under its own boots.

Japan with China would be too loathsome, too competitive with Anglo-American interests, and too much of a vital foil for the naval lobbies in both the US and UK to be accommodated within the western bloc, despite any common feelings of anticommunism.

Stalin did not invite people into the eastern bloc except on his terms.

Japan would want to have a distinctive global brand.

It would be a true strategic triangle, even with Japan definitely the 3rd wheel. At times there would be shifts of tactical diplomatic and strategic emphasis that would make it look like any of the combinations below:

West plus Soviets Cold War against Japan - (the first two liking to make trouble for Japan in China and make consolidation more difficult)

West Cold War against Soviets and against Japan (post Cold War USA shows that the US is totally capable of choosing to be confrontational with multiple independent adversaries) - The US and USSR support proxies against each other, and the US and Japan supporting proxies against each other, with the Soviets and Japanese maintaining prudent defenses against each other but having a neutrality pact and not emphasizing confrontation against each other.

West and Japan Cold War against Soviets -

Say the Soviets get bogged down in a conflict in Afghanistan, the Middle East or Africa - Both the west and Japan could enjoy making things difficult for the USSR, back mujhadeen, etc.

Shorter answer: "yes"
 
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It wouldn't last long one would expect China to figure itself out within 10 years and it would not take long before infilitrators and arms will be flowing the resistance movements in Northern China and Korea Japans colonies in the area would turn into major drags on both its military and economy committing the IJA to a long drawn out Counter Insurgency if not outright war with China
 
But there is a large part of China outside their rule. This *Free China* was a battlefield between the Communist and the KMT. Without the pressure of the Japanese, its anyone game as to who wins. If the Communist then we are looking at a China with a social policy that would drive many to prefer the puppet rule, as semi-free is better to many then communism. Large numbers will flee to the Japanese areas. Conversely those nationalistic Chinese will leave the puppet China to Communist China. This will help Japan. North and South Korea conflict will be a model for the region.
Would a divided China between the Communists, Nationalist, and warlords be possible in the unoccupied parts of China
 
Would a divided China between the Communists, Nationalist, and warlords be possible in the unoccupied parts of China

The communist and Nationalist is a fight to the finish and as we are talking of huge armies of about 4 million people, the remaining warlords would fall to whoever was left.

The US would be supporting the Nationalist
The Russians the communist
Japan, probably the Nationalist or they will be neutral.

Then whoever won, would be looking at the Japanese part of China
 
It wouldn't last long one would expect China to figure itself out within 10 years and it would not take long before infilitrators and arms will be flowing the resistance movements in Northern China and Korea Japans colonies in the area would turn into major drags on both its military and economy committing the IJA to a long drawn out Counter Insurgency if not outright war with China

Countries can afford long drawn out counterinsurgency warfare if the will is there.
 
Countries can afford long drawn out counterinsurgency warfare if the will is there.

sure said large scale COIN wars also help cripple a military creates a massive money sink and disrupts the economy the will may be there but for how long? Japanese policies have not enaurmed themselves with the people of Manchuria and once China gets back on its feet reclaiming the region will be priority number 1, and that's if Japan doesn't get booted out by Chin or the USSR
 
sure said large scale COIN wars also help cripple a military creates a massive money sink and disrupts the economy the will may be there but for how long? Japanese policies have not enaurmed themselves with the people of Manchuria and once China gets back on its feet reclaiming the region will be priority number 1, and that's if Japan doesn't get booted out by Chin or the USSR

Long scale COIN wars after often affordable too. Overall it depends here on what sort of a China forms. From what I can see in Hong Kong and now in Taiwan, the Chinese people there were not keen on getting back with China?
 
Bigger question, does Japan take over Indochina after the Fall of France. If so, USA places embargo on. Japan has victory fever and launches Pearl Harbor.

US funds Chinese freedom fighters led by Mao.

WWII happens pretty much same as OTl.

Japanese army is not as tied up in China but US navy prevails.

USA pursues Germany first
 
They're getting lend lease either way and even if d day doesn't happen the Nazis are already on the back foot.

But it is still possible that Germany doesn't lose. The Soviets had lost a lot of men and it could end in a stalemate.
 
Long scale COIN wars after often affordable too. Overall it depends here on what sort of a China forms. From what I can see in Hong Kong and now in Taiwan, the Chinese people there were not keen on getting back with China?

This isn’t Afghanistan or Chechnya This Manchuria with a population close to 50m and one that generally hates you guts and hundreds of kilometers of territory to hide in and lots and lots of arms flowing in from China and probably the USSR your scenario is dependent on Japan not being brutal colonial jackasses and not alienating everyone something I don’t see happening until it’s far to late
 
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