Japan wank challange: Japan actually able to win a war vs the US in 1941

That was also my thinking. In this kinda scenario, even if Japan got trashed I suppose they could move into mainland China--and not even the US could successfully invade, bomb, and occupy all of that.

I think in theory, they probably could, but they'd have to glass China to do it.
 
Depends on what you mean by "win". It also depends if Japan has allies and who these allies are. I could certainly imagine a PoD sometime "after 1700" which could place Japan in an alliance with the British Empire against the USA. In this situation, even if you don't weaken the USA, Japan could win such a war and end up with huge chunks of the former USA.

But, I assume you are talking about a one-on-one conflict, not a war of alliances. Since we are not allowed to weaken the USA, we must create a far stronger Japan. So here is a rough and ready time line:

1700-1750 Japan unifies earlier and abandons its isolation. The island is "opened" by the British, who then lose interest, seeing greater opportunity for money in China and India

1750-1900 Japan, alarmed by initial British contact, begins to adopt western technologies and institutions in the same manner as OTL 1870-1900. By 1830, Japan has entered into treaties with Britain giving them access to naval and military technologies. By 1860, Japan (having joined the British and French in the Crimean War) has invaded and anexed parts of the Russian far east. In 1870, Korea is annexed, and in the brief Japanese-Spanish War of 1890, Japan siezes the Phillipines and Guam. In 1900, the Second Russo-Japanese war confirms Japanese control of much of the former Russian pacific coast.

1900-1941 By 1900, the Japanese Empire is one of the major military powers - and is recognized as such by the west. War breaks out with China in 1905 and Japan siezes all of Manchuria. Over the next 5 years, the central Chinese government collapses, leading to defacto partition of the remainder of China between Britain, France, Japan, and Germany. (It is during this period US attitudes toward Japan harden). In 1914, there is a war equivalent to OTL WW1, and Japan joins the Entente, seizing Germany's Chinese protectorates and pacific holdings. By 1935, Japan is a major continental power, fully exploiting its Chinese and asian colonies. It has the second largest Navy in the world, a huge industrial base in Manchuria, Korea, and parts of Siberia, and a massive army made larger with millions of colonial auxilliaries. The nation is fully modern and has an industrial output equivalent to OTL's Soviet Union (which is butterflied away in this TL by an earler collapse of Russia as a major power)

1941-1947 - Rising tensions with the USA lead to the Pacific War (which only involves these two powers although there is a 2nd European war going on at roughly the same time). IN this TL, Japan does not strike at Pearl Harbor in a "sneak attack", but rather declares war in large part over the treatment of Japanese imigrants in the US and Hawaii (as a virtual industrial and military equal to the USA, Japan does not feel the need to adopt the sort of "strike first and defend later" strategy it adopted OTL). The Japanese defeat a major portion of the US fleet defending Hawaii and quickly occupy the islands. This is followed by an island hopping campaign in the Aleutians eventually leading to landings in the Alaskan mainland (Alaska is still american in this TL). In 1943, "front lines" have basically stabilized with Japan in control of Hawaii and a significant portion of Alaska (in this TL Britain and Canada are neutral and the US lacks any means of resupplying Alaska overland. There are many naval battles associated with the Alaska campaign and Japanese carrier divisions regularly mount raids on US west coast bases and cities. The US regularly retaliates with a long range bombing campaign against Japanese facilities in Hawaii and carrier-based hit-and runs closer to the Home Islands.

The deciding year is 1946.The US Pacific fleet has completely recovered from its losses in 1941 and has been reinforced with much of the Atlantic fleet. Japan has also built its forces up. A major US campaign against Hawaii is intiated, with diversionary landings in the Alaska. In "the largest Naval Battle in History", the Japanese Navy is victorious in the Battle of Hawaii. Losses on both sides are heavy, but the US suffers more and Japan retains the islands, and is able to reinforce its fleet at Hawaii, maintaining overall naval dominance in the eastern Pacific. The US beachheads in Alaska are successfully maintained, but long-term success for the Alaska offensive is considered unlikely. Japan begins planning for an invasion of the US west coast, which is something that many Japanese believe would be difficult to acheive, even with the US in a weakened state. The new administration of President Wendell Wilkie is shaken and public support for the war is dropping. The US is looking for a way to end the war.

1947 - Separately, both the US and Japan approach Britain to help negotiate an end to the Pacific War. Against a background of continuing military activity, negotiations begin in London and bog down. Then on October 1, 1947, the Japanese deploy a "uranium bomb" against the US Beachhead near Nome, Alaska. The US forces are completely eliminated and the dynamics of the London negotiates radically change. With the threat of this weapon being used against its Pacific Coast cities, the US agrees to a final settlement which gives Japan all of Alaska and creates an and independent Hawaiian Kingdom. The treaty requires fair treatment of "Americans" in Hawaii and "Japanese" in the USA.


Sounds good, except for Alaska. I think a stronger Japan could do a bunch of air raids and some sea battles there but I don't think the US would allow Canada to be neutral. At the very least I think they would get the ultimatium "Let us through with free passage or we will go through you anyways.".
 
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I might be able to do it without crippling the US, but after 1700, probably requires crippling China and the SE Asian countries - major plague?

If you largely depopulate a good chunk of Asia early in the 1700s, and Japan changes course soon thereafter, it could become much larger by 1941. The Japanese Empire might include Indonesia and China, for instance. With a navy and army to match the western powers. If they have a history of skirmishing and beating the Russians, they might develop a more western theory of land warfare (artillery is god, not bushido). If capitalism takes hold in the Victorian Age, things would end up very different than OTL.

But it would have to be a pretty violently major POD in any event.


A big plauge or three sounds good to me.
 
For Japan to win the US would need to just give up, that could happen if Japan can gain a few more early victories. The idea of fighting through their chain of island fortresses was daunting the first time around.

Better Japanese performance in China would be of major help to the IJA & IJN since China sucked in a lot of manpower resources that could've been used against the USA.
 
Very interesting Zoomar! Other than Wilkie existing despite butterflies, your rough draft TL illustrates that starting in 1700, one can create a victory without too much trouble. Most of us other posters are too caught up trying to deal with post-WW1.
 
IMHO simplest way to allow a win is to have Japan acquire the PI rather than the US, and might as throw in Guam otherwise no changes. Aside from the analogy of the 2 big dogs growling at each other, Japan had to get the PI OTL because the US in the PI could cut off the flow of Japanese oil & raw materials from the British & Dutch colonies they were planning to take over. If japan has the PI, no threat to supply lines, therefore no need to take out US fleet & start a war, so no Pearl Harbor. I don't see the U.S. going to war with Japan in 1941 because they attack the British & Dutch colonies - isolationism was strong in the U.S. and in this scenario USA has even less of a dog in the Pacific fight than they did in Europe - where they still waitd for GERMANY to declare war OTL.

Japan gets the resources they want/need to control China without a war - winning by not fighting. To have a POD that lets Japan have the resources needed to beat the U.S. would liberate so many butterflies that by 1941 who knows what things would look like.
 
IMHO simplest way to allow a win is to have Japan acquire the PI rather than the US, and might as throw in Guam otherwise no changes. Aside from the analogy of the 2 big dogs growling at each other, Japan had to get the PI OTL because the US in the PI could cut off the flow of Japanese oil & raw materials from the British & Dutch colonies they were planning to take over. If japan has the PI, no threat to supply lines, therefore no need to take out US fleet & start a war, so no Pearl Harbor. I don't see the U.S. going to war with Japan in 1941 because they attack the British & Dutch colonies - isolationism was strong in the U.S. and in this scenario USA has even less of a dog in the Pacific fight than they did in Europe - where they still waitd for GERMANY to declare war OTL.

Japan gets the resources they want/need to control China without a war - winning by not fighting. To have a POD that lets Japan have the resources needed to beat the U.S. would liberate so many butterflies that by 1941 who knows what things would look like.

There has to be a war for them to win it.
 
Well as I recall the OP stated that Japan simply needed to Be able to win a war, this does not necessitate actually fighting one. So lets put a minor POD in the early 1700's, this doesn't have major effects immediately, but by the early 1900's a few major things have changed in Japan. Put a very competent General in the IJA, he eliminates all the brutality (or most of it) thus eliminating some of the partisan activity in China. Also this guy comes up with some decent armored tactics. The Japanese are further ahead in their naval building programs, so maybe their fleet levels are five years ahead of where they were OTL. As a result the IJA has much more success against the Russians and it develops into a proper war. The Russians keep more troops on the East than in OTL as a result, and things go worse in Europe. War breaks out between the US and Germany in 1941, and Japan follows suit and in a show of solidarity with their German Allies declares war on the US. Shortly after the Japanese invade Wake Island, and the Philipines. The US tries to fight back, but the "Germany first" policy leaves the forces in the pacific lacking in manpower and materiel. The Graf Zepplin and her sister ship have been completed in TTL and plan Z also is further along(with some bigger units being added to the mix, maybe a proper dreadnought or two.) The RN and KM have failed to take the upper hand in the Atlantic, leaving it to the USN to tip the Balance. A large clash in the pacific between the USN and IJN results in a stalemate, but where the Japanese are able to replenish their casualties, the USN is sending almost all of its forces to the Atlantic to deal with a much more successful Germany. Moscow falls by '42, and operation torch fails miserably due to no suitable replacement for Fredendall (Patton dies ITTL during WWI). Turkey and Spain officially declare alliegence to the Axis in '43 shortly after a failed cross channel invasion by the allies into northern France. The Japanese successfully pull off a successful attack and conquest of Midway by late '43, and then a successful invasion of Hawaii in early '44. FDR and Churchill both lose out in their respective elections, and a President who wins on an anti war ticket sends out feelers to the Japanese in 1945, an official peace treaty is signed in early '46. The British sign an armistice with the Nazi's that year as well. Stalin is assasinated in 46 after the fall of Stalingrad and the new Soviet government signs an uneasy peace with the Germans by 47. The US holds the nuclear monopoly after a successful test in 1947. The world settles into a long and unpleasant cold war for the remaining half of the 20th century.
 
Consider that the POD could be as early as 1700. This suggests the war need not bear any resemblance to the OTL Pacific War. Therefore, I believe the easiest way to satisfy the terms of the challenge is to make the war a pure colonial war over China. The U.S.A massively underestimates Japan circa 1905 and attempts to enforce the Open Door Policy with an insufficient force. There is no fighting over the U.S. Pacific territories, but the sheer distance from the U.S. allows Japan to inflict several humiliating defeats against the Americans. The war is ended in a negociated settlement that favors Japan, which the U.S. accepts because the war is increasingly unpopular, and Japan is still sufficiently weak that the U.S. does not see it as a real threat that needs to be knocked down.
 
Consider that the POD could be as early as 1700. This suggests the war need not bear any resemblance to the OTL Pacific War. Therefore, I believe the easiest way to satisfy the terms of the challenge is to make the war a pure colonial war over China. The U.S.A massively underestimates Japan circa 1905 and attempts to enforce the Open Door Policy with an insufficient force. There is no fighting over the U.S. Pacific territories, but the sheer distance from the U.S. allows Japan to inflict several humiliating defeats against the Americans. The war is ended in a negociated settlement that favors Japan, which the U.S. accepts because the war is increasingly unpopular, and Japan is still sufficiently weak that the U.S. does not see it as a real threat that needs to be knocked down.


One of the better ideas, I must admit.
 
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