Japan vs Spain for the philipines

I also suspect a stronger communist movement against Japan in the Philippines, possible allying with Roman Catholic and Islamic resistance to the Japanese. My Question is does Japan even bother to attack the US in the Pacific? And how does the US enter WWII?
 
Well, it not just Baybayin in Tagalog/Kumintang region; other pre-Hispanic Philippine scripts would be revived (e.g. Pampanga's Kulitan)

Depends on the politics. A single unitary state would want a single unifying tongue, like Bahasa Malaysia and Bahasa Indonesia. A federation/confederation/a bunch of independent states would want to revive their own local language and writing system.

Well, if Japan get the Philippines instead of the US from Spain, it'll be before the Sino-Japanese war. The butterflies if that war were to happen would be something. A great wall of ships and islands restricting China from the world by sea would be hard to figure out what might happen.
 
I also suspect a stronger communist movement against Japan in the Philippines, possible allying with Roman Catholic and Islamic resistance to the Japanese. My Question is does Japan even bother to attack the US in the Pacific? And how does the US enter WWII?

World War II may not even happen. There would be such massive butterflies in Russian and British foreign polcies that the first Great War may never even happen.

Britain and Russia were slowly coming together prior to the Russo-Japanese War via France, but the process only really took off after Russia lost to Japan. So if the war never gets fought and Russia is flexing its muscles in China and Central Asia Britain might be a lot more cool towards it than OTL. Britain might think that letting the Germans and Russians hashing it out is a better scenario. Or the paranoia over the German navy forces their hand anyways. Everything might come to a head in 1908 over the Bosnian Crisis and then the war looks much different than the historic one. A lot could happen, but World War II as we know it probably doesn't happen.

I do think that at some point Japan will make a move for Taiwan though, simply because it's too dangerous to leave alone. So perhaps we get a Spanish-Japanese War/Philippines purchase ~1896 and a Sino-Japanese War within the following decade
 
A few big things occur to me here.....

1. Language. Spanish is a small minority language in the Philippines today, despite leaving a profound mark on the indigenous languages of the archipelago over the course of centuries. What really supplanted Spanish was the education system introduced under U.S. rule. What does the Philippine education system look like in this timeline? Is Japanese in wide usage? Spanish? Both? Pilipino and Japanese? I think outright annexation to Japan would be both undesirable and impossible in the era diplomatically, but the degree of Japanese influence and military/economic domination might be substantial.

2. Religion. Would Catholicism continue to dominate in the country? Would Buddhism be more popular, and evangelical Christianity less so? Are there reverberations for religious practices in Japan? Do Japanese Mestizo communities "return" to Japan with Catholicism? Do they convert to Buddhism or Shinto as a new favored class in a Japanese vassal Philippines?

3. The rest of the Spanish East Indies. Do they go to Japan too? Or do they go partially or wholly to Germany, Britain, or the United States?

4. Japanese prestige. Historically, beating a European power (Russia) was a boost for the Japanese psyche collectively, and contributed to the Empire's subsequent brief domination of the Pacific during World War II. Does the defeat of Spain nearly a decade before the potential war with Russia give the country a different/earlier boost.

5. The rivalry between the IJN and the IJA. Historically, the latter won out, with the former used as a means to achieve the latter's ends. Might that change here?

6. Korea. The U.S. withdrew objections historically to Japanese rule in Korea in return for Japan recognizing and respecting U.S. rule in the Philippines. Here, things will be different.
 
While Britain was contemplating an alliance with Japan as early as 1895 they still wanted open access to China via Hong Kong. If we posit that Japan goes to war with Spain in 1896 than things will immediately change. Britain, France, Russia, the Netherlands and the US might even come together to limit Japanese expansion. This off course would greatly anger/ embarrass Japan and possibly radicalize its government to be far more anti-western. Conversely it's possible that US sides with Japan against Spain in order to resolve the Cuba issue. Perhaps an American-Japanese Agreement that deals with spheres of influence in the western Pacific. The changes would be very interesting over the next few decades. Either way WWI will almost certainly still occur.

Benjamin
 
While Britain was contemplating an alliance with Japan as early as 1895 they still wanted open access to China via Hong Kong. If we posit that Japan goes to war with Spain in 1896 than things will immediately change. Britain, France, Russia, the Netherlands and the US might even come together to limit Japanese expansion. This off course would greatly anger/ embarrass Japan and possibly radicalize its government to be far more anti-western. Conversely it's possible that US sides with Japan against Spain in order to resolve the Cuba issue. Perhaps an American-Japanese Agreement that deals with spheres of influence in the western Pacific. The changes would be very interesting over the next few decades. Either way WWI will almost certainly still occur.

Benjamin
This might have consequences for Hawai/i as well as for the status/standing of Japanese Americans, given the endemic racism of the time.
 
While Britain was contemplating an alliance with Japan as early as 1895 they still wanted open access to China via Hong Kong. If we posit that Japan goes to war with Spain in 1896 than things will immediately change. Britain, France, Russia, the Netherlands and the US might even come together to limit Japanese expansion. This off course would greatly anger/ embarrass Japan and possibly radicalize its government to be far more anti-western. Conversely it's possible that US sides with Japan against Spain in order to resolve the Cuba issue. Perhaps an American-Japanese Agreement that deals with spheres of influence in the western Pacific. The changes would be very interesting over the next few decades. Either way WWI will almost certainly still occur.

Benjamin

That depends on whether there's a Russo-Japanese War. Russian power and prestige vanished overnight post-war, if the Japanese never end up going north Russia looks a lot more fearsome and the whole set of European alliances and events in the 1900-10s changes.
 
That depends on whether there's a Russo-Japanese War. Russian power and prestige vanished overnight post-war, if the Japanese never end up going north Russia looks a lot more fearsome and the whole set of European alliances and events in the 1900-10s changes.
True, although it would be interesting to have a situation with the entente and central powers as the power blocs, but with Russia considerably weaker due to not implementing reforms after the OTL was with Japan.
 
While Britain was contemplating an alliance with Japan as early as 1895 they still wanted open access to China via Hong Kong. If we posit that Japan goes to war with Spain in 1896 than things will immediately change. Britain, France, Russia, the Netherlands and the US might even come together to limit Japanese expansion. This off course would greatly anger/ embarrass Japan and possibly radicalize its government to be far more anti-western. Conversely it's possible that US sides with Japan against Spain in order to resolve the Cuba issue. Perhaps an American-Japanese Agreement that deals with spheres of influence in the western Pacific. The changes would be very interesting over the next few decades. Either way WWI will almost certainly still occur.

On the other hand, Britain knew that Germany was trying to move in on the Philippines, so they might be content with Japan taking over to keep the Germans out of the region. Japan in the 1890s is not the Japan of the 1930s, and Germany was seen as the biggest threat to the British Empire by the end of the 19th century.

And while the US would be hostile to Japan, this probably wouldn't affect their attitude towards Spanish Cuba since the underlying issues here go back to the early 19th century. They might take advantage of a weakened and demoralised Spain to gain possession of Cuba either by purchasing Spain's colonies or still going ahead and attacking as per OTL.
 
On the other hand, Britain knew that Germany was trying to move in on the Philippines, so they might be content with Japan taking over to keep the Germans out of the region. Japan in the 1890s is not the Japan of the 1930s, and Germany was seen as the biggest threat to the British Empire by the end of the 19th century.

And while the US would be hostile to Japan, this probably wouldn't affect their attitude towards Spanish Cuba since the underlying issues here go back to the early 19th century. They might take advantage of a weakened and demoralised Spain to gain possession of Cuba either by purchasing Spain's colonies or still going ahead and attacking as per OTL.
It would be interesting to see what effect the Spanish war with Japan could have on the lead up to the U.S. invention in Cuba, as the considerations change with Spain already at war. McKinley might send a ship in better shape than the Maine to safeguard U.S. interests in Cuba with Spain already at war, which means no boiler explosion.....
 
True, although it would be interesting to have a situation with the entente and central powers as the power blocs, but with Russia considerably weaker due to not implementing reforms after the OTL was with Japan.

My thinking is that Russia may overplay its hand in 1910-1911 in Mongolia. It could go for a full annexation instead of a puppet regime (there was some local support for it) and it would cement Russian control of northern Asia. If they can get Dzungaria attached to it so much th better. This might not even come to anything but I strongly believe that Russia is really going to be throwing its weight around in this era, and Mongolia is close by and there isn't a damn thing anyone can do about it.

If this happens it will look to Britain that Russia is making a play for Tibet (and they had a few agents there making intrigue) and that could potentially threaten India. This might cause a huge rift in their relations and drive them to a more neutral stance. So I guess what Britain asks itself is if a German domineered continent is better than a Russian dominated adjacent continent? Plus, the Russian navy won't have been obliterated by the Japanese and might be seen as a growing concern, especially since Russia holds Port Arthur.

This all assumes war doesn't break out in 1905 over Morocco or 1908 over Bosnia or (etc).
 
My thinking is that Russia may overplay its hand in 1910-1911 in Mongolia. It could go for a full annexation instead of a puppet regime (there was some local support for it) and it would cement Russian control of northern Asia. If they can get Dzungaria attached to it so much th better. This might not even come to anything but I strongly believe that Russia is really going to be throwing its weight around in this era, and Mongolia is close by and there isn't a damn thing anyone can do about it.

If this happens it will look to Britain that Russia is making a play for Tibet (and they had a few agents there making intrigue) and that could potentially threaten India. This might cause a huge rift in their relations and drive them to a more neutral stance. So I guess what Britain asks itself is if a German domineered continent is better than a Russian dominated adjacent continent? Plus, the Russian navy won't have been obliterated by the Japanese and might be seen as a growing concern, especially since Russia holds Port Arthur.

This all assumes war doesn't break out in 1905 over Morocco or 1908 over Bosnia or (etc).
Or in 1907/1917 over the renewal of augsleich....
 
Conflict between the US and Spain over Cuba is almost a given. This scenario just changes the trigger. Perhaps the US shows restraint during the war, but I have my doubts. Spain has a long history of being very stubborn regarding possession of Cuba. It is very likely that the US manufactures a cause to go war while Spain is at war with Japan. E.i., offer to mediate, get rebuffed, demand a say in how Cuba is dealt with, get rebuffed, run arms to Cuban rebels under foreign flag, get caught, Spain overreacts, US declares war.

Furthermore, it is very unlikely that Japan holding the Philippines will do anything to reduce Russo-Japanese tensions in Manchuria and Korea. It might give Japan reason to reexamine the joint policy agreement put forth by Germany. A German basing lease in the Phillippines in return for assistance in holding back Russia in China might be considered. Very quickly the situation could devolve into two blocks, France/Russia vs. Germany/Japan in the west Pacific and China. This could leave Britain and the US in the lurch and lead to some interesting situations arising during the Boxer Rebellion and any future great powers war.

Benjamin
 
Conflict between the US and Spain over Cuba is almost a given. This scenario just changes the trigger. Perhaps the US shows restraint during the war, but I have my doubts. Spain has a long history of being very stubborn regarding possession of Cuba. It is very likely that the US manufactures a cause to go war while Spain is at war with Japan. E.i., offer to mediate, get rebuffed, demand a say in how Cuba is dealt with, get rebuffed, run arms to Cuban rebels under foreign flag, get caught, Spain overreacts, US declares war.

Furthermore, it is very unlikely that Japan holding the Philippines will do anything to reduce Russo-Japanese tensions in Manchuria and Korea. It might give Japan reason to reexamine the joint policy agreement put forth by Germany. A German basing lease in the Phillippines in return for assistance in holding back Russia in China might be considered. Very quickly the situation could devolve into two blocks, France/Russia vs. Germany/Japan in the west Pacific and China. This could leave Britain and the US in the lurch and lead to some interesting situations arising during the Boxer Rebellion and any future great powers war.

Benjamin

No way does Britain allow German basing rights in the Philippines, they'd break the Anglo-Japanese alliance over something that egregious. I doubt that Japan would be able to afford a war with Russia when it finally realizes how much the inevitable Filipino rebellion is going to cost to suppress. What's more likely is a Franco-Russian grouping faces off against a Austro-German one while Britain is theoretically involved with the Entente but extremely leery of Russia. Russia might flex its muscles in Asia while simultaneously trying to court Britain and just end up in the same position Germany did regarding the naval build-up
 
Very interesting. I have been lurking for a long time, so I know that the possibility of a Japanese Filipines has been discussed many times in this forum; this are a few threads on-topic for anyone who feeks like doing a bit of reading:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-japanese-philippines.387724/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-japanese-spanish-war-over-the-philippines.278627/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...the-philippines-does-europe-intervene.347275/

This hipothetical conflict would occur not too long after the sino-japanese war, so maybe you can have less bloodied Japanese navy leading to a more risk-taking Japan as a POD. I'm pretty sure Japan could beat Spain either way, but they can't take chances with their preciuos navy, being an island nation and all that. The most obvious choice for a conflict starter is the 1896 incident where a Japanese ship was retained at por in Manilla because of suspicions that it had brought illegal weapons meant for the Katipunan rebels, but this happened in the context of a very recent Triple Intervention that had intimidated the empire quite a bit, so if you want a more long-lasting and stable Japanese Phillipines, waiting a bit is probably a good idea; the very begining of the Spanish-American war comes to mind. If Japan attacks Spain with a semi-valid pretext (maybe there was SOME sort of gradual scalation of the 1896 incident) before the US opens the Pacific theatre they leave very little room for American complains: the prospect of a cheaper war will trump other concerns in the eyes of the pro war faction. HOWEVER, a big issue here is that the American Pacific navy was stationed at Singapoore, and they moved really fast, so we probably want Japan to already had decided to attack the islands before Spanish-American conflict became aparent, ideally already having a battleplan sorted out. A factor to consider is that because Japan is much poorer, they are WAY less likelly to pay full indemnization for the Spanish infrastructure in the islands (like the Americans did), so it will look like much more of a dick move to the international community and it will give France, who doesnt want anyone with a big navy near its colonies, Russia, who is already in conflict with Japan, and Germany, who really wants the Philipines for herself, the perfect excuse to throw a fit. Britain however, will provably be willing take anyone but Germany there, so I'd expect a lot of support there. In the end, they'll be able to keep them, but something has to be done about the infrastructure indemnities.

Now there is the matter of what exactly it is they do once it's theirs. As it was said already in the first page, Japan will very likely take the puppet protectorate way, as this aproach comes with plenty of benefits: 1) It makes ruling it a whole lot easier, and the population will be a lot more agreeable. 2)The prospect of a land invasion of tropical islands against a largely non hostile territory only to be able excert complete control (that they don't even have the means to put and keep in place) and where you are largely dependant on the rebel leader's cooperation to show some form of legitimacy is just... dumb. 3)If Korea has taught Japan anything, it's that any dependent enough protectorates can be annexed later, once complete political control is in place. 4)Now, on the matter of the treatment of the locals, I believe that the Japanese would be pretty lenient with them, while pressing Japanese education. Everytime this has been discussed there is always the tendency to think that a Japanese Philipines would be a ruthless tyrany because of how it was with the Koreans and Taiwanese, who where "even more culturally similar" or something along those lines (IOTL they were forced to adopt Japanese customs and take Japanese names), but I think that misses the point: The Japanese were tyrannical with them because they could afford to be. If they can have a peaceful protectorate by treating the natives as equals, they will.

Finally there are possible butterflies. As long as no naval disasters occur, it doesnt seem to me like the war with Russia can be avoided in the long term. The empire can not allow for complete russian domination of Manchuria if Korea is to be secured, though Russia might be less inclined to underestimate Japan's capabilities.
 
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