ben0628 & all,
The "hook" for this would be a deal the Japanese made with the UK and US, among others, that eased those sanctions in return for the Japanese putting the squeeze on the Soviets. The Reds were not an ally of Britain at this time. And a POD would be the UK's recognizing the benefit of having the Nazis and the Communists go after each other unabated while the Free World used the time gained to rearm itself and then take on the weakened survivor of the Nazi vs Communist fighting.
To that end, the Japanese would have to agree to restrain their efforts in warring on China and focus on building up their Manchuko holdings instead. In return, the trade and oil would flow freely thus keeping the Japanese economy afloat and that, in turn, would keep the Japanese militarists in power.
No, the Japanese could not hope to take on the full fury of the Red Army and, no, there's damn all in terms of resources available at the time in the Soviet Far East that would justify a Japanese invasion otherwise (Oh, look! They've got lots of trees in Siberia! Let's seize them and we'll be rich!) But, that's not the point of the exercise.
Instead, it's keeping their regime in charge by getting out from under the Westerner's economic sanctions without going to war with the UK and US. The time gained would also allow the Japanese to further modernize their military and secure their holdings on the mainland. This as well as developing closer ties to the US and UK.