Japan v Great Britain Naval Battle

The other thing that would improve Britain's position in this scenario is that of course the posts by kenmac compare the RN in 9/39 with the IJN in 12/41. As such Britain has slightly over 2 years frantic rearmament extra. Depending on the circumstances it could be used wisely or not. Far too many options either way. Would depend heavily on the situation in Europe as well. Both in terms of what Britain can send east and its quality in terms of equipment levels and training/tactics.

Steve
 

CalBear

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Japan will need Indochina as jump-point to the DEI and Malaysia. Without control over FIC I sincerely doubt that they can apply enough pressure on Thailand. Given the size of the Dutch fleet (and the fact that the biggest part of it may still not be in the DEI) there is no way it's going to go head-on with the Kido Butai all alone.

A question to those who say that the IJN will make micemeat out of the RN in open waters: Which open waters? Isn't the South China pretty much covered by LBA from allied territory (FIC, DEI, Northern Borneo)? I doubt the Allies are going to steam into the Pacific.


I'd consider the IO open water, same for Coral Sea or the Philippine Sea the U.S. is an observer in this scenario based on the POD). Even a decent percentage of the South China Sea is outside the combat radius of 1941 Brtish fighters.
 

Markus

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Which is why I gave three different scenarios. Open water is different from confined waters like the Strait, both are different from within significant land based air support from the RAF.

Yes but you assumed that the FAA would essentially be the same in both TL. IMO with no war starting in Europe in 39 but trouble in the Far East the butterfly effect would help the FAA. Hurricanes would neither be needed as fighters over the UK in 1940, nor in 1941 in the Med. That allows an earlier conversion the Sea Hurricanes.


It is unlikely that the Japanese even attempts a move if the RAF had 300+ front line fighters. They were tactically bold, not tactically suicidal (at least in 1941).
Under the circumstances 300+ would be in the low end. The Japanese would not attack and than there is this:

Japan will need Indochina as jump-point to the DEI and Malaysia. Without control over FIC I sincerely doubt that they can apply enough pressure on Thailand. Given the size of the Dutch fleet (and the fact that the biggest part of it may still not be in the DEI) there is no way it's going to go head-on with the Kido Butai all alone.

A question to those who say that the IJN will make micemeat out of the RN in open waters: Which open waters? Isn't the South China pretty much covered by LBA from allied territory (FIC, DEI, Northern Borneo)? I doubt the Allies are going to steam into the Pacific.

Japanese control of FIC means war with France too. Not a good idea if France is not already defeated. No way Japan would think about this for evenone second.
 
Fleet battle in open water? Late 1941 (which was the the first time the IJN had six fleet carriers)?

Japan in a walk.

Neither side ever sees the other except through the eyes of its pilots and the other side's aircraft. Damned few of the British pilots manage to get home, so the RN only sees the veritable sea of IJN attack aircraft, with their Zero Escorts, as they overwhelm the Fleet.

The British have one more full sized deck, but far fewer aircraft due to differences in design philosophy. The FAA aircraft are a full generation behind the JNAF designs and the RN lacks any sort of reasonably competent carrier fighter.

Absolute slaughter. All that prevents the entire RN force from being destroyed is lack of munitions on the Kido Butai and the limitations imposed by daylight.

In tight waters, with carriers out of the game? The RN stomps the IJN. Unfortunately, I am not sure how you take air power out of the game.

Inside of British land based air, say off Singapore? If, and it is a serious IF, the RAF has seriously increased force levels since there is no European war (another POD that is more than a bit difficult to achieve) it gets interesting. The math still leans toward the IJN but with a lot of variables that can change the result.

Agreed 100%.

FWIW, I've wargamed this several times. The IJN just wipes the floor with RN. The FAA was just no match for the IJN.

Also, FWIW, I've wargamed the IJN and RN combined against the USN. Depends on the time. But assuming through-1944 building programmes, with no significant losses, the USN annhilates them.
 
I think I've stated before in one of these threads that contrary to what the OP says about the importance of the POD, it is actually critical to the scenario.

You could take it as a straight forward versus: every nation except Britain and Japan become entirely passive, this is known to both, and the two fight it out with what they had OTL in late 1941. In this case, it's pretty simple, while the RN is a lot bigger and can bring all of its strength to bear thanks to magic, it'll get trounced in the open water due to the crappy state of the FAA, and nothing the RN has being optimized for Pacific conditions.

Or you can try for an actual semi-realistic scenario in which case a POD is critically important. (and likely impossible to find) How far along is British rearmament, and what threat triggered it, and what's the state of that threat by the time a war with Japan begins? What exactly is the US doing such that Japan could even consider a war with Britain alone? How did the war begin: is there a sizeable RN element in the far east that is vulnerable to a surprise attack a la Pearl Harbor or Port Arthur? etc, etc.
 
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