All,
The Japanese strategy was never to 'defeat' US. That all agreed was not possible, at least in the 1941 time frame.
The entire strategy was built on hitting US Pacific Fleet enough to not interfere while gobbling up the areas Japan really wanted to get: Philippines, Dutch East India, British possessions and Vietnam (French).
After a good hit at PH, it was envisaged (sic!) that US would be devastated and seek peace rather than fight (cowards as they are!).
It did not go according to plan, really.
First of all: the declaration of war should have been deposited in Washington PRIOR to the attack. Due to decoding delays and things, it now became q sneak attack without warning.
As has been discussed (to death) is that any Japanese strategy involving occupation of SW Pacific had to counter a US intervention. PH was required.
After the initial easy victories strategy changed into 'let us do more'. And that was not a great idea either.
So, let us now imagine:
1) The declaration of war is delivered on time. It is not a sneak attack (less a few hours).
2) Let the carriers be in PH and get killed - not a necessity really in this WI
3) The Japanese have a limited run as per the first initial plan. No expansionist dreams of further conquests.
Here is the thing:
Japan is suing for peace via a 'broker'. (USSR, Spain, Brazil, ???)
Japan is guaranteeing that no US possessions will be harmed and that Philippines will be -co-governed.
Japan is only 'taking' the oil and timber and Singapore and .... -? all British and Dutch possessions, trying to tell US that there is no need for any war now.
The obstacles are of course:
1) PH is hard to not avenge
2) China is still unresolved - and that was the sole reason for the oil embargo
3) Philippines - co-governing? really? ----> comments on this one or other suggestions
4) other things
What possibly could enable something like this:
1) US is now onto 'Germany first' - Japan is on the back-burner and a cease fire/peace could be a great idea to buy time
2) If a cease fire/non-fighting situation is allowed to sir for several months, the entire campaign might 'fizzle'. It is hard to keep the animosity going for many months
3) US primary interests might not be threatened (this is debatable I should think).
4) US population might not be so interested in Japan if the casualty figures a low and as US is now going to war in Europe against Germany. After all, more US citizens were of European descent (1st and 2nd generation) than of Asian descent. They might have felt that Japan is too far away but the 'motherland' is just around the corner.
Of course this all depends on Japan to curb its ambitions and humble itself a bit - and that could be difficult.
Any takers on this fanciful idea?
The Japanese strategy was never to 'defeat' US. That all agreed was not possible, at least in the 1941 time frame.
The entire strategy was built on hitting US Pacific Fleet enough to not interfere while gobbling up the areas Japan really wanted to get: Philippines, Dutch East India, British possessions and Vietnam (French).
After a good hit at PH, it was envisaged (sic!) that US would be devastated and seek peace rather than fight (cowards as they are!).
It did not go according to plan, really.
First of all: the declaration of war should have been deposited in Washington PRIOR to the attack. Due to decoding delays and things, it now became q sneak attack without warning.
As has been discussed (to death) is that any Japanese strategy involving occupation of SW Pacific had to counter a US intervention. PH was required.
After the initial easy victories strategy changed into 'let us do more'. And that was not a great idea either.
So, let us now imagine:
1) The declaration of war is delivered on time. It is not a sneak attack (less a few hours).
2) Let the carriers be in PH and get killed - not a necessity really in this WI
3) The Japanese have a limited run as per the first initial plan. No expansionist dreams of further conquests.
Here is the thing:
Japan is suing for peace via a 'broker'. (USSR, Spain, Brazil, ???)
Japan is guaranteeing that no US possessions will be harmed and that Philippines will be -co-governed.
Japan is only 'taking' the oil and timber and Singapore and .... -? all British and Dutch possessions, trying to tell US that there is no need for any war now.
The obstacles are of course:
1) PH is hard to not avenge
2) China is still unresolved - and that was the sole reason for the oil embargo
3) Philippines - co-governing? really? ----> comments on this one or other suggestions
4) other things
What possibly could enable something like this:
1) US is now onto 'Germany first' - Japan is on the back-burner and a cease fire/peace could be a great idea to buy time
2) If a cease fire/non-fighting situation is allowed to sir for several months, the entire campaign might 'fizzle'. It is hard to keep the animosity going for many months
3) US primary interests might not be threatened (this is debatable I should think).
4) US population might not be so interested in Japan if the casualty figures a low and as US is now going to war in Europe against Germany. After all, more US citizens were of European descent (1st and 2nd generation) than of Asian descent. They might have felt that Japan is too far away but the 'motherland' is just around the corner.
Of course this all depends on Japan to curb its ambitions and humble itself a bit - and that could be difficult.
Any takers on this fanciful idea?