Japan/US Cold War after World War II

I just played a game of Axis and Allies for the first time. I don't know how realistic the scenarios produced by the game are, but it resulted in a very interesting world (not that any of us are accomplished generals). The European theater started out more or less the same but the Pacific wound up completely different.

Japan took Australia after Pearl Harbor and luckily managed to maintain it after the US fleet was forced into the Atlantic to back up the British. It then took Hawaii and the rest of the Pacific, at which point the Japanese, growing in power, fought off an invasion from Southeast Asia. Desperate, both sides prepared for a huge battle on the Chinese coast. This was eventually won decisively by the Japanese and the Japanese started heading west from China, taking the Caucuses very quickly. The Pacific war was over.

Europe looked a lot like it did IOTL at this point: the Russians had blunted the German advance and were counterattacking, D-Day was being organized, and so forth. The Russians were pressing into German territory. What the Russians didn't expect, however, was the Japanese coming up behind the Soviet troops in Asia and taking over sub-Saharan Africa for good measure. The Japanese steamroll over the Soviets and take Moscow. They then link up with the tattered remnants of the German forces in Europe, which were now on their last legs. Meanwhile, the British Empire has been reduced to the UK itself and there are tons of American troops pouring into France and England.

We called it a night with another major battle about to develop in Western Europe between the Japanese and the Western Allies. The Axis player's idea was to basically take Europe and accept a stalemate with the United States knowing they couldn't beat the US.

What would the postwar world have looked like in this case? Who gets what colonies and land? At this point Japan held basically all of Asia and Africa.

Here's what I think may have happened. Given the length of time we played, the war would have probably gone into 1945 or 1946 at this point. Considering the US itself was never threatened in this scenario, this means the US now has the atomic bomb. If I were the Allies at this point, I'd nuke Japanese forces in Germany (there was no real way to deliver it anywhere else) and convince the Japanese that enough is enough. Japan quits while it's ahead and agrees to terms. We now have a US/Japan Cold War with a Germany-led Europe in ruins.

I'd have imagined that we'd quickly have a MAD scenario in this case where Japan figures out how to make an atomic bomb from the German program, maybe a few years later. Once both sides have nukes everyone is going to get very cautious.

FYI, here is how I would have played a nuke run in Axis and Allies. A nuke requires 100 production points to produce the first one (20 for each one thereafter) and requires a standard bomber. If the bomber scores a hit, roll the die again and eliminate that number of enemy units in addition to the one it would normally have destroyed.
 
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I just played a game of Axis and Allies for the first time. I don't know how realistic the scenarios produced by the game are,
Not realistic at all.
but it resulted in a very interesting world (not that any of us are accomplished generals). The European theater started out more or less the same but the Pacific wound up completely different.

Japan took Australia after Pearl Harbor and luckily managed to maintain it after the US fleet was forced into the Atlantic to back up the British. It then took Hawaii and the rest of the Pacific,
Japan doesn't have the logistics to take Australia and Hawaii.
 
Some precvious threads about an invasion of Hawaii:


Yes, those suppose an invasion in 1941, but a few years later Japan is not going to be in a better position.
 
Japan doesn't have unlimited troops, industrial production and natural resources. OTL Japan could not subdue China and performed poorly against the USSR. So it is unrealistic for Japan to be able to invade and hold Australia, China, the Caucasus and then go on to invade Moscow, before steam rolling into Western Europe.
 
That’s not very realistic. I might disagree with a lot of people around here. I don’t think a Japanese superpower would be impossible to acheive. But they aren’t taking Hawaii or Australia or anything.
 
Not very plausible. THere is not way how Japan can take Australia and dfeat USA. Japan wasn't such power as USA and it had too deal with Brits and China. There is not way for Japanese victory at Pacific.
 
It is possible for them to have a cold war if Japan avoids war with USA and takes a lot of other territories but this scenario is not possible
 
At best, Japan would be able to maintain itself as a distinctly second tier power during the Cold War. Something in the same league as France or the United Kingdom, especially once the madmen in Tokyo murder much of the young population in a unending China War. Certainly not a third superpower.
 
At best, Japan would be able to maintain itself as a distinctly second tier power during the Cold War. Something in the same league as France or the United Kingdom, especially once the madmen in Tokyo murder much of the young population in a unending China War. Certainly not a third superpower.
The Japanese economy dwarfed the economies of France and Britain by the end of the Cold War and surpassed the Soviet Union. That was without Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria. Japan was a greater power OTL. Why would that change without the fall of their Empire?
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
The Axis and Allies game-play scenario you had play out on the board was a result of game mechanics and was not plausible in the real world. However, Japan remaining an independent great power and having a Cold War with the United States for much longer than it did (I think we can regard US-Japanese relations 1938-1941 as a Cold War, with a rivalry/competition extending further back) into the later 20th century is completely plausible. China and India were independent power centers, so the much more advanced Japan could certainly pull it off.
 
Because Japans economy relied on the economy of the west… The US, Europe Etc. And in a cold war situation that is not happening,

And of course Japan cant actully win the war to start with or even get a draw in the war so…
 
Because Japans economy relied on the economy of the west… The US, Europe Etc. And in a cold war situation that is not happening,

And of course Japan cant actully win the war to start with or even get a draw in the war so…
That goes both ways. Doesn’t it? Especially as we get into the later 20th century.
 
No it really doesn't go both ways. I know the US public was paranoid about Japan in the 80s but its economy was never great enough yo be an issue. Add in that without Japan being available (and China if they control that) because of a cold war then the US will keep more demestic industry then it did and will probably use other areas for cheep construction such as Mexico or Parts of Europe or South America or some such.

And with the US or Western Europe to sell to Japan is in trouble.

So problem
1) Japan cant hold out/win WW2.
2) If a cold war happens the US is NOT helping rebuild or modernize Japans industry (which didnt het destroyed either) so Japans industry is no better the the US factories. It is old traditional busness using old traditional factories dominated by old traditionalists.
3). without losing the war the Japanese government does not. change so it is still a government dominated by two military factions and not exactly pro business.
4) Japan is in a three way cold war and they are the smallest of the three (market wise) so they wont become the economic powerhouse that they (exagetatedly) were made out to be. As Europe will be still split between the US and the USSR. unless the ASB stop the US from getting into WW2 at all(see point 1) and a world without a WW2 is so radicly different that we dont get anything lime the world of today so who the heck knows what happens… GeoPolitics and Technology are going yo be RADICALLY different so much so that you could argue anything because you just dumped the foundation that the 21st century is built on. The USSR, GB, France, Germany, Italy the EU, Japan, Korea (south and north) China Etc etc ALL exust as they do today because if WW2. Change WW2 and all bets are off.
Even technology is the way it is because of WW2 and what came obout from WW2, For examole no WW2 then Boeing is a lot different then it was in 1950 so the B-47/B-52 are different the KC-135 probably is radicly different and the 707 probably never happens as we know it. Heck Boing may go under and ut is Douglas that is building jets today…. Who knows?

So this takes SUCH a huge change that. it is impossible to predict the outcome.
You can guess where a ball will land from a give person tossing it in a given cardnel direction but you just changed the person typsdung the ball and the directyion the thrower is facing (and didnt even tell us who/which direction). so litterly the ball can land anywhere just not anywhere close to where it did in original timeline.
 
No it really doesn't go both ways. I know the US public was paranoid about Japan in the 80s but its economy was never great enough yo be an issue. Add in that without Japan being available (and China if they control that) because of a cold war then the US will keep more demestic industry then it did and will probably use other areas for cheep construction such as Mexico or Parts of Europe or South America or some such.

And with the US or Western Europe to sell to Japan is in trouble.

So problem
1) Japan cant hold out/win WW2.
2) If a cold war happens the US is NOT helping rebuild or modernize Japans industry (which didnt het destroyed either) so Japans industry is no better the the US factories. It is old traditional busness using old traditional factories dominated by old traditionalists.
3). without losing the war the Japanese government does not. change so it is still a government dominated by two military factions and not exactly pro business.
4) Japan is in a three way cold war and they are the smallest of the three (market wise) so they wont become the economic powerhouse that they (exagetatedly) were made out to be. As Europe will be still split between the US and the USSR. unless the ASB stop the US from getting into WW2 at all(see point 1) and a world without a WW2 is so radicly different that we dont get anything lime the world of today so who the heck knows what happens… GeoPolitics and Technology are going yo be RADICALLY different so much so that you could argue anything because you just dumped the foundation that the 21st century is built on. The USSR, GB, France, Germany, Italy the EU, Japan, Korea (south and north) China Etc etc ALL exust as they do today because if WW2. Change WW2 and all bets are off.
Even technology is the way it is because of WW2 and what came obout from WW2, For examole no WW2 then Boeing is a lot different then it was in 1950 so the B-47/B-52 are different the KC-135 probably is radicly different and the 707 probably never happens as we know it. Heck Boing may go under and ut is Douglas that is building jets today…. Who knows?

So this takes SUCH a huge change that. it is impossible to predict the outcome.
You can guess where a ball will land from a give person tossing it in a given cardnel direction but you just changed the person typsdung the ball and the directyion the thrower is facing (and didnt even tell us who/which direction). so litterly the ball can land anywhere just not anywhere close to where it did in original timeline.
1) The Japanese economy at its height was closer to the United States than either Germany or the Soviet Union were between 1939 and 1945.

2) It’s bizarre to think that Japan would be better off with the disruption coming from the Secong World War. They were already growing at an incredible rate. By WW1, they were competitive with France by many metrics. They’d have probably surpassed Britain by the 1960’s at the latest. Very likely the 1950’s.

3) Japan Being an economic powerhouse in second half of the 20th century isn’t exaggerated. You’re actually downplaying it if anything.

4) It’s not impossible to predict the outcome. We just need to look at historical trends. That’s why we’re on an alternate history site. Given the rate of Japan’s growth pre-war and what they achieved without their Empire after having their country destroyed by World War 2, a superpower Japan isn’t at all hard to imagine.
 
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Japan was NEVER the threat to the US economy that the media and the news would have had folks believe.
The fact that the factories and steel mills were more advanced was directly a result of them being rebuilt in the 50-70s. Detroit built one new cart factory from scratch in the 60s-80s…. And not a lot more in the 50s. Al most all the steel mills and factories of the rust belt date from WW2 or often before.
These are simple facts.

And if Japan is in a Cold War with the US it is NOT selling to the US/Canada nor is it selling to. west Germany England Australia etc. so it economy Is going to suck.
You can’t get around that.

As for predicting things…. Nope. If you have such a HUGE change you can’t predict. You can speculate but you could make ANY argument at that point. For. Instance.. The militarys get into a huge civil war in Japan durring the 1970s and Nuke each other and the war spead es to the US and the USSR and everyone dies. Or instead the Emporer dies after a visit by the USSR embasader and The Army uses it as an excuse to invade Easter Russia.. Or the militarys dominating means the industrial o pled is seconds fiddle so the economic environment does not allow for the huge expansion. Or ANYTHING else you want.

History after 1941 us almost ALL a direct descendent of WW2 without that so much changes that it. CANT be predicted.
This is what makes Alternate history discussions so hard. To small a POD and nothing interesting happens. To big a POS and you can only talk about extreme broad things and even then the possibilities are to many to have a meaningful conversation.
And you can’t find a bigger POS then changing WW1/WW2. (And really WW1 is only as big as it is because without it you have a differently WW2).

So yes the change is to big to truly predict what would happen. Odds are the Japanese economy will NOT be as big as IOTL as it will have limited market and the Military/government will not be as pro business (unless you decide the government changes.. which it could as you have a er big POD so almost anything is possible). Yes the Japanese economy was big but the fear that it’s would take over the UZs (see populate media, news shows, games etc of the time) was in reality over blown. Mush as the Fear of Japan invading the US was over blown in 1942.
 
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