I had this idea about Japan taking the exact opposite route of what they did IOTL. Bare with me on point 1 which might seem slightly ASBish. But then again history can be weird. The rest should be logical.
1. Alternate Japanese reasoning: Japanese see that American industry pours out insane amounts of vehicles, weapons and just about everything else and that Japan will never be able to cope with a war with an enraged America. The US naval increase adds fuell to the belief that Japan will be crushed if it provokes America. The Japanese know that war is likely to happen and therefore Japan has to play nice and hope it works. The only other option is doom.
So basically Japan reasons exactly the other way around. IOTL they wanted to strike before America was too strong. Here they look at the numbers and realise that war with the US = national suicide.
2. Japan invades southeast Asia anyway to get oil.
3. Incident off the Philippines leads to war. Japan immediately seizes the Philippines.
4. American battle line proudly sets sail from Pearl Harbor and gets ambushed by Japan's carriers at the Philippines. (thanks to Yamamoto). The battleships get sunk in an unequal match. Japan suffers relatively minor losses. US Pacific Fleet is crippled as these ships can never be recovered from these waters.
5. National embarassment in the US. Public becomes more divided (which it already was). War over the Philippines doesn't cause the rage PH caused. Demands for a good peace for America become more vociferous even outside the Pro-isolationist faction.
Now there are two options:
a) Roosevelt continues a rather impopular war and perhaps Japan gives America some more bloody noses which further increases support for the peace faction. OTOH if treatment of PoWs leaks this might change America's attitude but that doesn't change the fact that the American battleline is still on the seafloor which should give Japan free reign of the Pacific for maybe a year.
b) America makes peace. They keep the Philippines but give Guam to Japan.
discuss.
Edit: Japan will still go for Indonesia whether America is happy with it or not. Japan merrily conquers Indonesia. They must have oil.
@Blue Max: I hope you agree with me that the other option is complete suicide. If the US do go on, they might leave Japan some dignity ITTL. A Japanese army and navy that are cut down to size could still be useful to deter the Soviets (Truman might see it that way) and China if it goes red ITTL.
1. Alternate Japanese reasoning: Japanese see that American industry pours out insane amounts of vehicles, weapons and just about everything else and that Japan will never be able to cope with a war with an enraged America. The US naval increase adds fuell to the belief that Japan will be crushed if it provokes America. The Japanese know that war is likely to happen and therefore Japan has to play nice and hope it works. The only other option is doom.
So basically Japan reasons exactly the other way around. IOTL they wanted to strike before America was too strong. Here they look at the numbers and realise that war with the US = national suicide.
2. Japan invades southeast Asia anyway to get oil.
3. Incident off the Philippines leads to war. Japan immediately seizes the Philippines.
4. American battle line proudly sets sail from Pearl Harbor and gets ambushed by Japan's carriers at the Philippines. (thanks to Yamamoto). The battleships get sunk in an unequal match. Japan suffers relatively minor losses. US Pacific Fleet is crippled as these ships can never be recovered from these waters.
5. National embarassment in the US. Public becomes more divided (which it already was). War over the Philippines doesn't cause the rage PH caused. Demands for a good peace for America become more vociferous even outside the Pro-isolationist faction.
Now there are two options:
a) Roosevelt continues a rather impopular war and perhaps Japan gives America some more bloody noses which further increases support for the peace faction. OTOH if treatment of PoWs leaks this might change America's attitude but that doesn't change the fact that the American battleline is still on the seafloor which should give Japan free reign of the Pacific for maybe a year.
b) America makes peace. They keep the Philippines but give Guam to Japan.
discuss.
Edit: Japan will still go for Indonesia whether America is happy with it or not. Japan merrily conquers Indonesia. They must have oil.
@Blue Max: I hope you agree with me that the other option is complete suicide. If the US do go on, they might leave Japan some dignity ITTL. A Japanese army and navy that are cut down to size could still be useful to deter the Soviets (Truman might see it that way) and China if it goes red ITTL.
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