Japan takes the gamble

I had this idea about Japan taking the exact opposite route of what they did IOTL. Bare with me on point 1 which might seem slightly ASBish. But then again history can be weird. The rest should be logical.

1. Alternate Japanese reasoning: Japanese see that American industry pours out insane amounts of vehicles, weapons and just about everything else and that Japan will never be able to cope with a war with an enraged America. The US naval increase adds fuell to the belief that Japan will be crushed if it provokes America. The Japanese know that war is likely to happen and therefore Japan has to play nice and hope it works. The only other option is doom.

So basically Japan reasons exactly the other way around. IOTL they wanted to strike before America was too strong. Here they look at the numbers and realise that war with the US = national suicide.

2. Japan invades southeast Asia anyway to get oil.

3. Incident off the Philippines leads to war. Japan immediately seizes the Philippines.

4. American battle line proudly sets sail from Pearl Harbor and gets ambushed by Japan's carriers at the Philippines. (thanks to Yamamoto). The battleships get sunk in an unequal match. Japan suffers relatively minor losses. US Pacific Fleet is crippled as these ships can never be recovered from these waters.

5. National embarassment in the US. Public becomes more divided (which it already was). War over the Philippines doesn't cause the rage PH caused. Demands for a good peace for America become more vociferous even outside the Pro-isolationist faction.

Now there are two options:
a) Roosevelt continues a rather impopular war and perhaps Japan gives America some more bloody noses which further increases support for the peace faction. OTOH if treatment of PoWs leaks this might change America's attitude but that doesn't change the fact that the American battleline is still on the seafloor which should give Japan free reign of the Pacific for maybe a year.

b) America makes peace. They keep the Philippines but give Guam to Japan.

discuss. :)

Edit: Japan will still go for Indonesia whether America is happy with it or not. Japan merrily conquers Indonesia. They must have oil.

@Blue Max: I hope you agree with me that the other option is complete suicide. If the US do go on, they might leave Japan some dignity ITTL. A Japanese army and navy that are cut down to size could still be useful to deter the Soviets (Truman might see it that way) and China if it goes red ITTL.
 
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I had this idea about Japan taking the exact opposite route of what they did IOTL. Bare with me on point 1 which might seem slightly ASBish. But then again history can be weird. The rest should be logical.

1. Alternate Japanese reasoning: Japanese see that American industry pours out insane amounts of vehicles, weapons and just about everything else and that Japan will never be able to cope with a war with an enraged America. The US naval increase adds fuell to the belief that Japan will be crushed if it provokes America. The Japanese know that war is likely to happen and therefore Japan has to play nice and hope it works. The only other option is doom.

So basically Japan reasons exactly the other way around. IOTL they wanted to strike before America was too strong. Here they look at the numbers and realise that war with the US = national suicide.

2. Japan invades southeast Asia anyway to get oil.

3. Incident off the Philippines leads to war. Japan immediately seizes the Philippines.

4. American battle line proudly sets sail from Pearl Harbor and gets ambushed by Japan's carriers at the Philippines. (thanks to Yamamoto). The battleships get sunk in an unequal match. Japan suffers relatively minor losses. US Pacific Fleet is crippled as these ships can never be recovered from these waters.

5. National embarassment in the US. Public becomes more divided (which it already was). War over the Philippines doesn't cause the rage PH caused. Demands for a good peace for America become more vociferous even outside the Pro-isolationist faction.

Now there are two options:
a) Roosevelt continues a rather impopular war and perhaps Japan gives America some more bloody noses which further increases support for the peace faction.

b) America makes peace. They keep the Philippines but give Guam to Japan.

discuss. :)

Look, Japan's demands are going to be for Indonesia. Guam is nice, but Japan has to have the resources it needs to be an empire. And the United States might opt out of a war if it appears to be genuinely accidental. That said, Japanese abuses of PoWs will eliminate any chance of that happening.

I don't Japan is going to do it.
 

LittleSpeer

Monthly Donor
i think this is one of those actually possible events. Japanese sub picket lines could also cross the ocean to take a few ships out on the way to MacArthur's aid.
 
I was under the impression that the American government of the time expected the Japanese to go as far as to take the Philippines for sure, and were worried about them invading Hawaii hence an increased fleet presence. I might be misremembering though.

Now, I think you'd have to continue the Taisho legacy of political-economic rather than military imperialization of China, democracy, and desire to be a European style power rather than the "we'll show the Europeans whose boss, for the Emperor!" military nationalism/fascism that took place in OTL Showa after that.

A less fanatical (though still extremely bullish, just with more flexibility in terms of what they"re willing to do) expansionist Japan might avoid invading Manchuria (considering economically it basically owns it anyway) and just use their domination of the Pacific as a threat to leverage big demands on China. This gives America an economic reason (given it's involvement in the Chinese markets) to stop Japan and they overshoot, responding with righteous dignity at the invasion of the Philippines (rather than waiting for news of human rights abuses, attacks on US merchant vessels, or even some sort of implausible sneak attack on Pearl Harbor...), thinking it'll be a quick chastisement.

The government goes in without building public support and once outrage over some foreign territory people have never seen wears out, the government is caught having gotten into a war on the behalf of the corporations and greatly underestimated the length of time and amount of effort it would take to seriously bloody Japan's nose (I imagine a great investment is needed to perform the island hopping necessary to strike Japan's soft squishy homeland innards). So the gov is pressured to take what they market as a surrender of the Philippines and what the Japanese government marks as a mandate from the West (given that Europe is a bit occupied at the moment to do anything but scowl) of their ownership of Indonesia and so forth as long as they don't mess with the continent.

Post-WWII Europe will get into a few fracases with the (permanently) Combined Fleet of the democratic Empire of Japan but the threat of the commies will force a detente in the 60's after colonialism is getting out of style.

Of course without having fought a land war with Japan, China (regardless of whether it's patron is the US or the USSR) will reassert itself after WWII as well; freeing Japan of the danger of being a heavy economic rival of the US (either the US will have the Chinese markets or it'll be communism's fault).

Japan goes on to be a great fleet in the Far East pacific and not much else, being unpopular in the world market and without the resources to do much more industrialization without cutting their military budget (something they aren't willing to do). A backwards stepchild of the free world checking the Far East Soviet fleet (and getting aid from the US for that very purpose during the tenser moments of the Cold War).

When the Soviet Union threat begins to crumble, Japan will start having economic/social problems as well and a radical new government will end up in their parliament (though the institution of the emperor will probably keep any actual revolution type stuff from happening). Basically the 90's will be a new direction for the nation, though what kind of direction?

Of course all of this is just cinematic musings, without much solid background in plausibility.
 
A scenario along these lines was described in Rising Sun Victorious. One of the few in that book I found plausible.

Selling the Netherlands out is possible, especially since their country is basiclly a government in exile anyways, though the US isn't going to sell Britain out.

If Japan limited it's demands to the Phillipines, Dutch East Indies, possibly Guam and Wake, and free reign in China in exchange for abandoning the Axis so the allies can focus on Germany well... stranger things have happened in the diplomatic arena.

A Japanese-US conflict over the Panay incident would be interesting as well.
 
A cool butteflie of this could be just after WW2 the US and USSR working together to knock out Japan in a giant strike with the opening moves Operaation August Storm and the atomic bombing of Tokyo.
 
I'm assuming the US is not yet at war with Germany, the output is for Lend Lease.

There are a _lot_ of Isolationalists, and without Pearl Harbor to create the outrage needed to get everyone on board I think Roosevelt will continue to try and get the US into the war against Germany. Avoiding a two-front war will be on top of that list, thus the US _might_ settle.
 
I'm assuming the US is not yet at war with Germany, the output is for Lend Lease.

There are a _lot_ of Isolationalists, and without Pearl Harbor to create the outrage needed to get everyone on board I think Roosevelt will continue to try and get the US into the war against Germany. Avoiding a two-front war will be on top of that list, thus the US _might_ settle.

I really don't think the US are that concerned about a two-front war.I mean its not like they can get invaded,or even bombed(apart from your average crazy submarine aircraft carrier pilot)
 

burmafrd

Banned
Once again some are using modern PC and sensitivity in the early 1940's.
If Japan attacks the Phillipines which is still American Territory and kills US soldiers and Sailors then the American Public will support the war. You do not get sympathy for the enemy in the media in the 1940's that you get now. Completely different times.
 
Losing the Pacific Fleet with its loss of probably ~20,000 lives would enrage the Americans just as much as Pearl Harbor did, and you'd also give the guys who advocated even more naval buildup (like Vinson) more reason to load up the American military. The result is Japan having command of the Pacific for a while longer, but when the Americans come Japan will have hell to pay.
 
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