Japan Surrenders After Hiroshima

What if Japan surrendered unconditionally after Hiroshima became a victim of the atomic bomb? There would be no bombing of Nagasaki. Would this POD change much?
 
What if Japan surrendered unconditionally after Hiroshima became a victim of the atomic bomb? There would be no bombing of Nagasaki. Would this POD change much?

At that point, the Soviets weren't in Korea. I believe that may change things.
 

jahenders

Banned
There would be huge changes. If Japan surrenders before 9 Aug, then the Soviets would never declare war, wouldn't launch any of their offensives, etc. You'd also have a few hundred thousand less Japanese deaths and less destruction.

You'd have no split Korea, Japan in better shape, more Japanese soldiers to repatriate, etc.

What if Japan surrendered unconditionally after Hiroshima became a victim of the atomic bomb? There would be no bombing of Nagasaki. Would this POD change much?
 
Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands

There would be huge changes. If Japan surrenders before 9 Aug, then the Soviets would never declare war, wouldn't launch any of their offensives, etc. You'd also have a few hundred thousand less Japanese deaths and less destruction.

You'd have no split Korea, Japan in better shape, more Japanese soldiers to repatriate, etc.
So, what about southern Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands? Does Japan get to keep Karafuto and the Chishima Archipelago if the Soviets don't keep their end of the agreement?
 
Last edited:
The division of Korea was very hastily led out, and only occurred after the Soviet invasion of Manchuria I believe. Before that there simply wasn't a sophisticated plan for Korea by the US - why would they care so much about a hinterland peninsula?
 
I expect the Soviets will certainly go in to Manchuria and southern Sakhalin - for the latter I assume the USA would give it back to them even if they don't actually take it. I doubt the USA would be too happy if the USSR moved against the northern Kuriles, in any case with the surrender sooner the USN may get there before the Soviets could. Likewise the USA will get to Korea sooner than OTL and the Soviets will be not so far south...perhaps the dividing line is the narrow waist of Korea rather than 38th parallel.

If the Japanese give up before the USSR declaration of war, I can see the USA tolerating moves in to Manchuria and Sakhalin but no more. After all the Soviets already have not followed the agreement on declaring war (was supposed to be 3 months after Germany gives up). The USA is already unhappy by summer 1945 with Soviets activity in Eastern Europe, for them to take the Kuriles, occupy Korea is a blatant land grab - no justification at all.

If the Soviets do try and grab what they did OTL after Japan surrenders, you may see US-Soviet and even UK-Soviet relations deteriorate even faster than OTL. If that happens might even see the British not sending those jet engines to the USSR, and this will seriously delay the development of the Mig-15 and Soviet jet aircraft.
 

jahenders

Banned
I would tend to agree. A lot would depend on how quickly both move. If the US quickly gets troops to Kuriles, Korea, etc, then the Russians may be halted. If the Russians get there first in strength they might just apologize for the "confusion" but stay forever.

I'm not sure if the US had any real plans for this eventuality.

I expect the Soviets will certainly go in to Manchuria and southern Sakhalin - for the latter I assume the USA would give it back to them even if they don't actually take it. I doubt the USA would be too happy if the USSR moved against the northern Kuriles, in any case with the surrender sooner the USN may get there before the Soviets could. Likewise the USA will get to Korea sooner than OTL and the Soviets will be not so far south...perhaps the dividing line is the narrow waist of Korea rather than 38th parallel.

If the Japanese give up before the USSR declaration of war, I can see the USA tolerating moves in to Manchuria and Sakhalin but no more. After all the Soviets already have not followed the agreement on declaring war (was supposed to be 3 months after Germany gives up). The USA is already unhappy by summer 1945 with Soviets activity in Eastern Europe, for them to take the Kuriles, occupy Korea is a blatant land grab - no justification at all.

If the Soviets do try and grab what they did OTL after Japan surrenders, you may see US-Soviet and even UK-Soviet relations deteriorate even faster than OTL. If that happens might even see the British not sending those jet engines to the USSR, and this will seriously delay the development of the Mig-15 and Soviet jet aircraft.
 
Nagasaki probably develops into a somewhat significant tourist destination for history-minded tourists (in a different way than it is now); not only was it the historic center of Japanese Christianity and Western influence, but it also joins Kyoto as one of the few major, historic cities not devastated by bombing. It will be hurt by being further from Tokyo, but still probably get something out of it.

The Soviets still get their occupation zones; they were already decided. Besides, given how long it took the US to get around to officially occupying Korea OTL, they certainly won't be in a position to stop them.

The Japanese government may or may not face an ultra-nationalist coup upon agreeing to surrender.
 
If the USSR stayed out of Korea, might the Chinese Communists when they had power still make a play for Northern Korea?
 
Now I'm thinking of a WI, where Japan seeks terms when the Tojo government falls in 1944. What are the reprecussions if the Pacific War effectively ceases before the end of the year and Japanese soldiers are starting to withdraw from China? At that point the USSR is in a poor position to occupy much of Manchuria & Korea.
 
If the USSR stayed out of Korea, might the Chinese Communists when they had power still make a play for Northern Korea?

Maybe they would make a move for all of it were the US presence as low as OTL. Chinese volunteers filling the ranks of a Communist Korean Army of Liberation.
 
Top