Japan supports the Philippine Independence Movement in 1896

In 1896, Japan was smarting over the Triple Intervention and renegotiating the "Unequal Treaties". Japanese leaders like Yamagata were cautious and would not want to take risks. However, the Triple Intervention must have inspired anti-European ideas. A little later there were Pan-Asianist ideas associated with figures such as Toyama Mitsuru. Can we imagine a mostly private organisation supported by a few helpers amongst Japan's military supplying the weapons needed by Andrés Bonifacio. If he received a large quantity of weapons captured by Japan in 1894-5, Bonifacio might have taken Manila. Even if he fails, there might be an incident such as a Spanish attack upon a Japanese ship leading to a direct Japanese attack on the Spanish. In either case, Japan would be supporting Philippine independence rather than an extension of its Empire because they have learnt that they won't be allowed to expand.
 

The Sandman

Banned
You mean like they supported Korean and Manchurian independence in 1905?

At best, I can see the Japanese allowing a puppet state in the Philippines. But if they're actively funding and supplying the rebels, then they'll be expecting some sort of profit out of the deal.
 
In either case, Japan would be supporting Philippine independence rather than an extension of its Empire because they have learnt that they won't be allowed to expand.

I can see Japanese diplomats claiming that. I can see too yellow-peril-crazed European powers not believing them at all, and seeing this happening less than a year after the Triple Intervention as proof that the Japanese are crazy expansionists that must be stopped. And remember, the Japanese can't count on the British yet, so that pretty much means that they must bend over or being FUBAR.
 
Would William Randolph Hearst exaggerate the brutality of the Japanese Empire? Would Theodore Roosevelt send an American battleship to Tokyo or some other major Japanese harbor on "official business" to "mysteriously" be destroyed? Or would they be content to pursue Cuba and have the false flag incident occur in Havana Harbor as in IOTL?

Does this mean that there would be a Japanese-American War instead of (or perhaps in addition to) a Spanish-American War?
 
I can see Japanese diplomats claiming that. I can see too yellow-peril-crazed European powers not believing them at all, and seeing this happening less than a year after the Triple Intervention as proof that the Japanese are crazy expansionists that must be stopped. And remember, the Japanese can't count on the British yet, so that pretty much means that they must bend over or being FUBAR.

The Triple Intervention happened because Russia had designs on Port Arthur. Why would anybody go to war to defend Spanish control of the Philippines against the creation of a Filipino Republic?
 
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