I'm writing a timeline for my own amusement called Rolls! Rolls! Rolls! where Japan has an economy that is twice as big as OTL from the Meiji Restoration until 1941.After the Sino-Japanese War, decides on Nanshan-ron, the southern expansion doctrine. On May 1, 1897 a surprise attack on the Spanish fleet in Manila Bay by the Empire of Japan. In a few hours the Spanish forces are defeated. Manila's harbor is captured before evening. By June except for Manila all of the Philippines are captured by 20,000 Japanese troops. On June 20, Guam is captured. July 25, 2,000 Japanese troops land on the Chinese island of Hainan. The conquest is complete by August 9. Japan pays China 450 million yen for the island. On August 13, Manila surrenders and the Japanese conquest of the Philippines is complete. October 1, a peace treaty is signed between Spain and Japan, with the Philippines and the Spanish Pacific islands becoming Japanese territory.
As part of that the Japanese do even better in the First Sino-Japanese War because they can afford larger armed forces. They annex Korea in 1895 instead of 1910 and extract an even larger indemnity from China. They are still forced to give Port Arthur to the Russians so that the Russo-Japanese War still happens, but the result of that is Japan gains control of Manchuria sooner.
I hadn't thought of the Japanese taking Hainan earlier, but in my TL the Japanese might have had the logistical capability to take the island during the First Sino-Japanese war so they wouldn't have to pay the Chinese 450 million Yen for it as they do in your OP.
I was thinking of the Japanese using the larger indemnity from China to buy the Spanish Indies before the Spanish-American War broke out OR they jump on the band wagon by declaring war on Spain shortly after the USA did and capture Manila and Guam before the Americans can.
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