Japan retreats from China in 1939

Not "retreat". They "win" and come home. If they can get the Army under control. I imagine the Chinese stay in chaos from all the competing leaders and those wanting independence. And I think they would want to keep Innner Mongolia, Manchuko, the Reformed Republic of China, and the Provisional Tepublic of China around. They also got Hainan in February, which should be annexed.

Contemplating a plan isn't the same with going through with it. I contemplate many things in life, very few of which I execute.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Not "retreat". They "win" and come home.
How is this a "win"?

It's a pretty blatant loss if Japan had to withdraw from the bulk of the territory it occupies after 1937. If they don't withdraw from China proper (i.e China south of inner Mongolia), then China has no incentive to stop fighting.

If they can get the Army under control. I imagine the Chinese stay in chaos from all the competing leaders and those wanting independence.
Except the Japanese conveniently took out the biggest independent warlord in the country with the occupation of Manchuria, and by 1937 China was not every much in a state of chaos.

And I think they would want to keep Innner Mongolia, Manchuko, the Reformed Republic of China, and the Provisional Tepublic of China around. They also got Hainan in February, which should be annexed.

The problem is that there's no reason for China to agree to this peace, unless the Japanese are willing to concede a significant amount of territory (i.e everything south of the great wall barring maybe Hainan), there's no incentive for China to stop fighitng.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I think you should be more specific than China in this case. Which government do you mean?

The 1930s isn't the 1920s anymore, the era of the warlords have ended and there -wasn't- more than Chinese government (unless you count the japanese established ones) after 1927 with the success of the northern expedition. There was only one government you could negotiate with if you wanted a peace.
 
The 1930s isn't the 1920s anymore, the era of the warlords have ended and there -wasn't- more than Chinese government (unless you count the japanese established ones) after 1927 with the success of the northern expedition. There was only one government you could negotiate with if you wanted a peace.

Chiang's control was somewhat shaky, though--besides the Communists, there was a warlord rebellion as late as 1936. This is noteworthy as showing that even warlords could play on anti-Japanese feeling:

"It is noteworthy that the last major warlord revolt against Chiang--that
of the Guangxi Clique of Li Zongren and Bai Chongxi and the Guangdong ruler
Chen Jitang in the summer of 1936--called itself the 'Anti-Japanese
National Salvation Army.' According to Eastland, p. 256, originally Chen
proposed 'rebelling in the name of opposition to the 'illegal
constitution' that had been proclaimed on May 5. The Kwangsi [Guangxi]
leaders laughed off this suggestion, however, recognizing that the draft
constitution was anything but a visceral popular issue. Finally, they hit
on the solution. As Huang Hsu-ch'u [Huang Xuchu] recalls, 'But what
purpose should we proclaim? To win the people's sympathy and still
proclaim righteousness, nothing surpassed 'resistance to Japan.'' The
Southwest would, in other words, join forces with the potentially powerful
national salvation movement." Most likely what really worried the
Southwest warlords was that Chiang, by first suppressing the Fujian
rebelllion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujian_People's_Government and then
driving the Communists out of the provinces just north and west of
Guangdong and Guangxi--and keeping his army in those provinces even after
the Communists had escaped to the North during the Long March--was
tightening his control and threatenimg Guangxi and Guangdong's autonomy.
The cruelest blow came when Guizhou, under pressure from Nanking, diverted
the opium trade from Guangxi (Eastland, p. 253). But however cynical the
'anti-Japanese' justification of the rebellion, the fact that its leaders
did make that their banner proved how popular the slogan of resistance to
Japan was..."
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.history.what-if/msg/17db796260af7299

In other words, yes, Chiang was at least nominally recognized as leader of China by all factions by 1937, but he could not therefore make any peace he and the Japanese wanted. His enemies were waiting to jump on him for anything that looked like a sellout.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I basically agree with this.

But if China gets all of its territory south of the Great Wall back, it's easy for Chiang to sell it as a victory, after all he had technique expelled the Japanese from the territories they took after 1937.

If the Japanese don't hand back those territories however, then yes, I don't see China making peace.
 
I basically agree with this.

But if China gets all of its territory south of the Great Wall back, it's easy for Chiang to sell it as a victory, after all he had technique expelled the Japanese from the territories they took after 1937.

If the Japanese don't hand back those territories however, then yes, I don't see China making peace.

I don't think anybody thought Manchuria wasn't Chinese territory, even at this time. If there is peace it'll be tenuous, since the Japanese are going to pull out as slowly as possible and the Chinese are going to use the time to build up their industry and military.
 
Well, according to the mad monarchist article, if the japanese army would retreat they would only retreat from the han territory, they still would keep Mengjiang (their inner Mongolian allied Kingdom) and Manchukuo (The Qing ruled Manchuria)

to be more clear, take a look at this map:
634px-Manchukuo_map_1939.svg.png
 
Chiang will consolidate the rest of China with his star ascendant as the "man who saved China" if he miraculously somehow repels or convinces Japan to retreat.

A better question is what will Japan do next to sate their imperialist ambitions and how long will Chiang take to try to retake Manchuria.

Also which horses will the USA/UK/USSR back in any future Roc/IJ confrontation.
 
Well, according to the mad monarchist article, if the japanese army would retreat they would only retreat from the han territory, they still would keep Mengjiang (their inner Mongolian allied Kingdom) and Manchukuo (The Qing ruled Manchuria)

This would still be unacceptable to the Chinese people, or at least the urbanites...Chiang already got a lot of flack for conceding Manchuria in the first place...
 
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