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Admiral Nagano who had studied in the USA advised strongly against going to war with the Americans. Instead, why not have the Japanese Empire do what it did in WWI?
Simply grab the colonies of the beleaguered European powers.
In mid-1940, Japan takes the Dutch East Indies, Hong Kong, Malaya, Singapore. It leaves Eastern New Guinea alone but takes the Bismarck Islands and the Northern Solomons as well as the Gilbert Islands.
Japan proclaims Asia for the Asians and promises to prepare its new possessions for independence within 10 years. It cultivates Sukarno in Indonesia and recruits locals into its army.
It tells Australia that it has no quarrel with them as a sister Asian power and will stop in the mid-Solomons and Western New Guinea.
It then moves on and takes Ceylon and offers India independence within 5 years if the Indians throw off the British yoke.
No attacks are made on Wake, Guam, the Philippines, Pearl Harbor, the Aleutians, etc.
In this counterfactual - all the resources expended against the Americans are now available to push out into the Indian Ocean.
FDR is very very unhappy but - especially in an election year - cannot get a consensus to go to war over the protection of European colonies. Besides, he is mostly concerned with Hitler.
The UK is busy elsewhere and ultimately struggles to protect East Africa and the Persian Gulf. The loss of India may lead to Churchill's fall. The Chinese are starved for supplies because the pipeline from Burma and India is cut off.
Japan does have to station significant forces on Saipan and Truk as well as Formosa and to keep a very careful eye on the Americans. But the Americans are not likely to try to launch a surprise attack without a declaration of war.
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