Japan Not in WWII

[Whanztastic]

Could a Yamamoto led coup prior to Pearl Harbor save the Empire?

A regime change with a leader with knowledge of US policy and connections could end the embargo...

 

[Rubicon]

The level of dudgeon, whine, and personal attack you are bringing here is all out of proportion to your actual arguments, which an extremely charitable person might describe as hypertechnicalities, while a person with less charity but a still-functioning brain might describe as mind-numbing sophistical ignorant pedantry. It's wrong to call Japan an island country because it consisted of more than one island?

Please try to say something worthwhile, preferably in a different thread.

I am not whining, I am annoyed at the ignorance and flaws of reasoning regarding pre-ww2 Japan posted in this thread by certain authors. I bet I'm soon going to see a post in it regarding the Japanese soldiers superior jungle fighting abilities (yes that was whining, or rather more accuratly grumbling)

On the other hand, certain posters have been extremly well informed and I can' say other than I agree mostly to what they are saying.

Now for the anal pedantery you accuse me of, Amphibulous didn't claim Japan was an island country, he claimed Japan was an island Japan is as much an island as Scotland is a part of England.

 

[Vingilótë]

Could a Yamamoto led coup prior to Pearl Harbor save the Empire?

A regime change with a leader with knowledge of US policy and connections could end the embargo...

There was a Japanese anime about precisely this.

Well, it involved an ISOT of Yamamoto from just before his death, and still managed to be implausible as fuck.

 

[amphibulous]

Could a Yamamoto led coup prior to Pearl Harbor save the Empire?

Given he had part of the Navy, and the Army was the problem... only if Tokyo floods. Plus he'd need the Emmperor on his side, and if he had that he wouldn't need a coup.

 

[Rubicon]

I'd actually have no problem with his posts if he didn't commit the cardinal sin of internet time wasters: demanding sources from everyone else, even on the most basic points, but never giving them himself.

People like this may or may not have functioning brains - but I'd still kill the lot of them!

I may be annoying and condensenting at times, but I've given you an source every time you've asked for one,

..

and I don't issue death threats.

 

[amphibulous]

Now for the anal pedantery you accuse me of, Amphibulous didn't claim Japan was an island country, he claimed Japan was an island Japan is as much an island as Scotland is a part of England.

I think the pedantry comes from the fact that the substantive point is unaltered - or possibly turned further against you - by their being several islands, not one... The point about pedantry is that it a useless attention to detail.

 

[amphibulous]

I may be annoying and condensenting at times, but I've given you an source every time you've asked for one,

This doesn't stop you from being a hypocrite if you whine at people "How dare you post without a source".. and then do so yourself. Which is, in fact, what you do.

and I don't issue death threats.

If you're going to be a pedant, you should learn to read better...

 

[Whanztastic]

Will someone be the adult and just stop with the personal attacks? We don't want to bring any Mods into this.

What would convince the Yamamoto to approach the Emperor about the crash course they were on?

Could Yamamoto get any allies in the Army to support him?

 

[Shaby]

You are projecting western rationale on an oriental culture. In many cases their hand was forced by cultural imperatives impossible to ignore, hence making their actions rational in oriental but not necessarily occidental point of view.

 

[Shaby]

What would convince the Yamamoto to approach the Emperor about the crash course they were on?

Could Yamamoto get any allies in the Army to support him?

Nothing short of entire USN and RN cimbined showing up in Tokyo bay.

Allies in an Army virtually devoid of any moderate elements and by 1941 composed almost entirely of super nationalists? Without a civil war it is very difficult to turn Japan away from war by 1936.

 

[Rubicon]

You are projecting western rationale on an oriental culture. In many cases their hand was forced by cultural imperatives impossible to ignore, hence making their actions rational in oriental but not necessarily occidental point of view.

Where is the 'like' button when you really, really need one

The last one of yours was equally well thought out, but I somewhat disagree with your date of 1929 being the latest. I think war was unavoidable earlier then that, 1922 I'd say, and I'm not certain but I think it was Admiral Togo that predicted in 1905/06 that Japan would get in a war with China, Russia (a second time) and the USA within half a century (amphibulous I can't find that quote at the moment), but he didn't predict that wars would occur simultaneously.

 

[phx1138]

For Japanese leadership to realize war with the U.S. is a stupid idea, you have to give them the ability to realize it's a stupid idea, & IJA & IJN seniors were, virtually to a man, incompetent to do so.

They lacked the ability to distinguish between tactical & strategic victory.

They lacked the wit to recognize victories against China & Russia did not mean they were able to win against the U.S. or Britain (never mind both).

They lacked the ability to recognize war against China or Russia was severely constrained by geography, which a war with Britain or the U.S., let alone both, was not going to be...

In short, they simply did not have the understanding of the situation to realize it was (to borrow Morison's phrase) strategic imbecility.

Changing that requires a POD well before 1941, & I suggest, well before 1929, too. It requires a change in education & selection of senior officers in both services. It requires changes in training. It requires changing doctrine. And, in some measure, it may require changing Japan's experience: losing the war with Russia, instead of winning, frex.

If you've done that, you've not just butterflied the Pacific War, you've changed everything.

 

[Faeelin]

I think war was unavoidable earlier then that, 1922 I'd say, and I'm not certain but I think it was Admiral Togo that predicted in 1905/06 that Japan would get in a war with China, Russia (a second time) and the USA within half a century (amphibulous I can't find that quote at the moment), but he didn't predict that wars would occur simultaneously.

You think war was unavoidable from the year this was signed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Naval_Conference.

Again we see that the road for Germany to start putting Jews in gas chambers was a long and circuitous, but the Japanese could not help but scream and leap.

You are projecting western rationale on an oriental culture. In many cases their hand was forced by cultural imperatives impossible to ignore, hence making their actions rational in oriental but not necessarily occidental point of view.

I honestly have no clue what you mean here.

They knew where they wanted their empire to be and that is it. The kill kill kill aspect evolved later and I do not claim Japanese are mindless killing robots, Daleks or whatever. Their culture was in some crucial aspects different from western culture and this divergence emphasized misunderstanding. Japanese couldn't establish their own empire because they arrived to a game too late. Finally fear of communism assured they'd try to control China. It ironically backfired.

You are right that fear of communism played a role in their interventions in Asia, but again you ignore how Japan acted between 1905 and 1931. This was not a state which was ruthlessly pursuing expansion around the world.

The problem was that they were not rational imperialists - they were too vicious and too concerned with face.

Yes, it was a fear of losing face which made them seize Indonesia for its oil.

 

[Rubicon]

You think war was unavoidable from the year this was signed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Naval_Conference.

Again we see that the road for Germany to start putting Jews in gas chambers was a long and circuitous, but the Japanese could not help but scream and leap.

As I'm not a native english speaker I'm going to have to humbly ask for an clarification of the idiom 'scream and leap' in this instance so I don't come to any wrong conclusions about your argument.

 

[Shaby]

Could a Yamamoto led coup prior to Pearl Harbor save the Empire?

A regime change with a leader with knowledge of US policy and connections could end the embargo...

Him and what army? What forces could he use to support the coup? SNLF?

@Faelin

Japanese AFAIK operated on different value scale. I think myriad misunderstandings between them and US are well documented. Some where even mentioned in the thread. I can't remember the name for the concept right now, but they had this principle that, provided the utmost effort was put into an endeavor, the result itself did not matter. This lead Japan on some catastrophic blunders. Than there was gekokuio, which lead to major strategic decisions and even foreign policy was dictated by a group of relatively junior officers in China. The central government went along for fear of lossing face if word came out that they cannot control their soldiers. Japanese admiralty was routinely blackmailed by Yamamoto into actions to his liking. Those are things not tolerated in the West, yet allowed in Japan.

Quite aside of all this, Japan discounted the determination of US when they contemplated war and according to their starting assumptions, their decision was entirely rational. Calling their starting assumption into question would cause questioning the basis of an entire societal order and Japanese Empire as such. They wouldn't do that voluntarily.

 

[stjernkjempe]

From what I understand those oilfields couldn't be exploited with 1940's drilling technology.

The Chinese used water drilling equipment dating to the 1880is

I was under that impression also.

There has been a thorough discussion here a few days ago. The consensus is that since Japan has managed to get several deep oil fields running in the 1920 onward, finding the oil fields is only a matter of supreme luck. Which is doable in a nice and potent PoD.

Yes Link https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=261837

Doesn't matter though, because there are other resources Japan was importing.

The "incom" from both the Oil and not having to import the Oil (exchange rate) would make other "more expensive" import sources avaiable (read Soviet Union would sell resources for gold or South America would sell if they outbid USA)

Was Japan prospecting in Manchuria for oil?

Yes, Yes they were but not in the scale Mao sent out soldiers to drill holes in the 50is. It's like winning the lottery

 

[Shaby]

You are right that fear of communism played a role in their interventions in Asia, but again you ignore how Japan acted between 1905 and 1931. This was not a state which was ruthlessly pursuing expansion around the world.

They were thoroughly frustrated at every turn, in their perception. US robbed them of success against Russia in 1905, then again in 1921, acted racially against Japanese immigrants, the entire world was against them in China in 1933 and all this lead to a very logical (agan from a Japanese point of view) development.

 

[amphibulous]

You are projecting western rationale on an oriental culture. In many cases their hand was forced by cultural imperatives impossible to ignore, hence making their actions rational in oriental but not necessarily occidental point of view.

Yes. Non-Westerners are completely incapable of rationality. If only the Japanese had been led by a German - or if only the US had been led by a Westerner when it overthrew Saddam leaving a power vacuum that Iran would obviously gain from...

The Japanese behaved like idiots: this isn't either unique to orientals or the only way that they behave.

 

[amphibulous]

They were thoroughly frustrated at every turn, in their perception. US robbed them of success against Russia in 1905, then again in 1921, acted racially against Japanese immigrants, the entire world was against them in China in 1933 and all this lead to a very logical (agan from a Japanese point of view) development.

1. It's not logical to fight a war against someone with 10x your industrial base because of stuff like the above

2. In fact, the Japanese were on the verge of collapse (or at least severe economic difficulties) in '05 although they'd had some spectacular victories. The US brokered deal was actually damn good for them. Miscomprehensions about this should not have influenced professionals.

 

[Vingilótë]

As I'm not a native english speaker I'm going to have to humbly ask for an clarification of the idiom 'scream and leap' in this instance so I don't come to any wrong conclusions about your argument.

Essentially, Faeelin is taking issue with the widespread belief that Japan was a monolithic expansionist empire just waiting for the opportunity to invade every one of its neighbors for the entirety of the 20th century.