Japan never opens

I mean, that policy was really only in regards to Europe.

That being said, not likely. The way Tokugawa society was structured, the highest social classes kept getting poorer and weaker, and the lowest kept getting richer and stronger. Not to mention that the samurai had, by now, constructed an elaborate military code which they'd never been able to actually, you know, use, and were becoming rather restless with being administrators.

Basically, either something like the Meiji coup or a merchant rebellion was bound to happen eventually.
 
Tokugawa Shugonate was really cought between a rock and a hard place (and an oncomming truck for good measure).

On one hand they had unruly vassals trading with the Western world, mainly for military knowhow, willing to revolt at the drop of a hat if they liked the odds.

On the other hand the Merchant 'caste' was slowly but steadily growing stronger and stronger while the Warrior caste (Samurais) had devoled into a bureaucracy 'caste'. (and it was closer to castes than classes, with limited social mobility, at least beyond Peasent -> Merchant, which by the leadership was seen as completing for lowest worth)

On the other other hand the surrounding colonial powers was interested in opening Japan for a multitude of reasons, including stealing bits of them (such as coastal china was divided), prostelytizing missionaries, and access to the japanese market buying cheap silk and tea and selling western luxuries for many times beyond their worth.

On the other other other hand the leadership themselves (Tokugawa family) had for the last couple of generations succeded in making the worst possible choice, more often than not, and generally being relatively bad rulers, and the only reason they ruled in the first place were that they was able to get the biggest baddest army on any one battlefield.
 
Japan risks the kind of upheavals faced by China in the 19th and early 20th centuries if it doesn't open up. Peripheral areas (Hokkaido, the Ryukyu islands, etc.) could be pried away while the Shogunate struggles to suppress rebellions, and the European powers continue to press their advantages.

The whole thing is going to collapse one way or another, and if Japan's central authority has weakened itself trying to constantly delay the inevitable, it won't have much control over the outcome.
 

iddt3

Donor
What if the Tokugawa shogunate kept power, and never ending they isolationist foreign policy.

Even before the Meji Restoration, the Tokugawa Shogunate was modernizing, remember they were opened to the west in the 1850s and the Shogunate wasn't deposed for another generation. It's not the government of Japan you need to change, but western willingness to force the issue. And for that I have no idea what kind of POD you'd need.
 
Opening to Western trade WILL happen, as China discovered. Japans only choice was to aquiesce and work with it (otl) or fight it and probably be colonized, maybe by multiple powers dividing the spoils.

If it hadnt been the Ameicans, it would have been the Russians or the Brits a year or two later.
 
It's not like Japan was totally cut off even when it was closed, it's that very few foreigners could only arrive in certain area's.
 
That's one of those horrible little historical facts that are anything but. Actually The entire reason for the Meiji restoration was in opposition to the shogunate modernizing and opening up.

Taking the pod as the shogunate decides not to open up....then japan is screwed. The Americans come back with more ships to seize ports. The British and French aren't far behind, carving out areas for themselves.

Eventually a government willing to open up will have to rule the country. Though it will probably do so with very minimal control of its own affairs.
The question is who ends up dominating the country.
The Americans seem unlikely and the Russians are at the end of their supply lines. Strikes me as being between the French and British- Anglo-French war over japan?
 
While true, it is also rather simplistic from what i know about the time. The issue the revolters wasn't as much the modernizing and opening up to foreign trade, but more of equal parts "We think we're stronger, hence we should be 'caliph instead of the caliph' " and "they're doing it wrong".

The later part was specially in terms of that the Shogunate appeared to falter and retreat, each and every time that some foreign wanna-be came around wanting to play hardball, and failing spetaculary to get a position where Japan could treaty with foreign nations from a position of strength.
 
Note that several European nations were already preparing their own versions of Perry's expedition, so an equivalent was very likely to occur soon after. Indeed, the Americans were arguably easier to deal with, as their commercial interests were more geared towards securing ports to stop at on the way to China rather than the Japanese market for its own sake.

So Japan is very likely to be pried open regardless.
 
The points many people in this thread have raised about other nations already preparing their own expedition, and the great likekyhood of Japan being pried open anyway, are very valid. However... the OP wants a Japan that is not opened, which demands a POD that prevents all Western powers from trying to open Japan.

Such a POD would be hard to reach, but I imagine a stalemate in the Great Game, combined with a USA that doesn't reach the Pacific (or reaches it much later, or has less interest in Pacific trade for other reasons) could conceivably do the trick.

As others have already pointed out, the actual situation in Japan was far more complex than it is often made out to be in Western history books (excepting history books that are specifically about Japan or Asia in general). In the absence of a power forcibly opening Japan, there would still be tensions within the country.

Let's look at OTL. Heavily simplifying matters, one might say that the Tokugawa shogunate has already realized that Western powers were a threat, and attempted to adept to it. Critics of the Tokugawa shogunate were typically traditionalists, who felt (even before Perry's expedition) that Japan was catering to foreign powers too much. The doctrine of Sonnō jōi (Revere the Emperor, expel the barbarians) may have crystalized after Perry's expedition, but the fundaments were there long before.

The Emperor became the focal point of the new vision, which sought to end the 'weak' shogunate and create a strong Japan under an Emperor who was not only a figurehead, but actually reigned. In the initial phases, the advocates of this view were die-hard traditionalists, who went so far as to assasinate prominent scholars of 'Western learning'.

Only later did the doctrine of 'Western knowledge, Eastern morality' arise, which meant that Japan sjould use Western science, methods, technology etc. while retaining its own moral and cultural distinctiveness.

At that point, the traditionalists fought against the modernizers, and (predicably) lost. But both sides proclaimed loyalty to the Emperor. No-one was fighting for the shogunate at that point.

Now, given an ATL wherein no Western power forces the opening of Japan, a coalition of traditionalists, merchants, disaffected warriors etc. will still arise... and it will likely still focus on the Emperor. Difference is: Western influece will not be a fait accompli, and the traditionalists will win. Modernizers and 'Western' thinkers will be associated with the old, weak regime... and Japan will (in the short term) become more closed off, and will reject all things 'Western' with great vehemence.
 
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At some point, a European country lands troops and forces Japan to open up, likely getting treaty ports ceded to it. The Europeans most likely to do this would be Germany - both Britain and France would be dealing with digesting the colonies they already have while Germany is looking for their first ones. Timeline would be in late 1880s and 1890s. Germany might even insist on a protectorate.

It would be an interesting time period. Japan is potentially very wealthy as a colony. However, Japan's technical expertise is quite high, and could industrialize very quickly. Would Germany allow Japan to do so, ultimately dooming their dreams of control? Or would they intervene to stop them? A lot depends on what happens to Japan the first time the Germans arrive and defeat the Tokugawa - does Japan quickly unite to usher reforms, or do ambitious daimyos split the country giving the Germans opportunity to grow their influence? I could see a determined German force adequately supported defeating Japan; I can also see a small German force inadequately supported being wiped out by Japan. A lot depends on the specifics.

Without the Japanese to act as a barrier to Russian expansion in China, who steps up to do the same?
 

Skallagrim

Banned
I for one would be very interested in reading a timeline along the lines of what Widukind and Blackfox5 wrote in this thread; with Japan going all traditionalist and isolationist... and then being forced open later by Germany. In such an ATL, the phrase "interesting in the Chinese sense" that we often use to mean "pretty terrible" might be replaced by "interesting in the Japanese sense".
 
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