Japan limits itself to China

Why wouldn't it? Vichy couldn't really protest - it had no way to project power. It was clearly worth it for the Imperial Japanese Army - it helped cut off Chinese access to Western arms and supplies via Guangxi.

If we're acting under the assumption that France fights on, the power-projection issue remains, albeit lessened by the presence of the British. The Japanese would at least push for France to completely cut off trade with China.
 
I think the Western powers would have embargoed Japan anyway even if they didn't occupy French Indochina. The Japanese were spouting a lot of anti-colonial rhetoric and committing a lot of atrocities in China that would have led to an embargo sooner or later.

I also don't think that the Japanese can win in China even if they don't go to war with the Western powers. As long as the Western powers can continue shipping supplies into China via Burma, the Chinese will fight on and bleed Japan dry. It won't be pretty, but it will happen. Either the Chinese will win, or all of China will be effectively depopulated.
 

Markus

Banned
FFO like scenario:

The Japanese would face an alliance of France and Britain. One that would be much stronger than just Britain. The French navy would have added many ships and no fighting Vichy in Dakar, Syria/Lebanon(=no uprising in Iraq) and Madagascar would have freed a lot of British forces, French ones too.

Bottom line: Japan would face much more powerful adversaries and they would know it. Please note, they exactly knew how weak the forces were IOTL. A german AMC captured a merchantship that had a secret report on the state of the defences of the Far East in the mail bag.


OTL:

There was also an alternative to occupying northern Indo-China, continuing the offensive into Guangxi. Also to consider is that after the Fall of France even less could be send to China as the British needed all they could get.


So what could happen? My guess, if Japan limits itself to China Japan get´s away with it but only as long as the war against Germany is being fought. After that the UK/USA would support the KMT, the USSR the Communists both of which is bad news for Japan.
 

Typo

Banned
I think the Western powers would have embargoed Japan anyway even if they didn't occupy French Indochina. The Japanese were spouting a lot of anti-colonial rhetoric and committing a lot of atrocities in China that would have led to an embargo sooner or later.

I also don't think that the Japanese can win in China even if they don't go to war with the Western powers. As long as the Western powers can continue shipping supplies into China via Burma, the Chinese will fight on and bleed Japan dry. It won't be pretty, but it will happen. Either the Chinese will win, or all of China will be effectively depopulated.
Yes, people tend to forget that it was the fact that Japan -couldn't- achieve a strategic breakthrough in China which caused it to attack the western colonies in the first place
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Why wouldn't it? Vichy couldn't really protest - it had no way to project power. It was clearly worth it for the Imperial Japanese Army - it helped cut off Chinese access to Western arms and supplies via Guangxi.

If we're acting under the assumption that France fights on, the power-projection issue remains, albeit lessened by the presence of the British. The Japanese would at least push for France to completely cut off trade with China.

The Irony is that the Japanese occuppied Indochina to get resources so the U.S. cut them off from several times the resources that SEA could ever provide.
 
My understanding is that Japan would have run out of hard currency by sometime in 1942 if they had maintained the war in China. They would have either had to make the war pay for itself in terms of hard currency or shut it down.
 
My understanding is that Japan would have run out of hard currency by sometime in 1942 if they had maintained the war in China. They would have either had to make the war pay for itself in terms of hard currency or shut it down.

The consequences of having to back out of the war would have been interesting.
 
The consequences of having to back out of the war would have been interesting.

Still, I don't think a Japanese "Vietnam" on a massive scale is going to have the same effect as losing WW2. There might be some heads rolling, and less IJA influence in the Diet, but essentially it will be business as usual. Maybe the loss of so much manpower will have some effect on the industry though, with increased mechanization. That, in combination with a war in Europe, and the loss of face of the military, could give rise to "Japan Inc." of postwar fame. It won't be anywhere near as successful though, since politicians will still be in control...

...unless the war's fallout is so massive that it completely breaks the nations economy, like WW2 without bombs. The Japan might go technocrat or communist instead.
 

Typo

Banned
Still, I don't think a Japanese "Vietnam" on a massive scale is going to have the same effect as losing WW2. There might be some heads rolling, and less IJA influence in the Diet, but essentially it will be business as usual. Maybe the loss of so much manpower will have some effect on the industry though, with increased mechanization. That, in combination with a war in Europe, and the loss of face of the military, could give rise to "Japan Inc." of postwar fame. It won't be anywhere near as successful though, since politicians will still be in control...

...unless the war's fallout is so massive that it completely breaks the nations economy, like WW2 without bombs. The Japan might go technocrat or communist instead.
China isn't going to be a "Japanese Vietnam", on so many different levels
 
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