As a response to the large number of "What Japan did better" threads, I now compose this one to consider how Japan could've avoided its major problem: getting stuck in China.
First off, two points:
- By 1931, I've read that the IJA could no longer be controlled and was pretty much going to invade China proper no matter what. Also it was a pretty big priority on the part of the Japanese gov. to get China under their realm of influence.
- In the early 30s, there was an active struggle between the KMT and CCP, and in fact it was the Japanese aggression that created the cease-fire.
So basically, my idea is that for some reason, the civil war in China doesn't get put on hold, and when Japan invades, Chiang Kai-shek is even more screwed.
Now the second thing that needs to happen is for the KMT and Japan to negotiate (again!). This shouldn't be so difficult on Chiang's part especially if he suffers even more crushing defeats without any hope in sight. But what Japan needs to realize is that it would be fucked in the long run if it tried to swallow China.
So we need a Japanese leadership that is happy to accept a peace with Chiang and sees the situation a little more realistically. Japan would get its goal of a disunited, weak China, and would probably be able to squeeze some favorable terms out of the KMT, giving it resources and development rights, etc.
Then, assuming Japan doesn't do something stupid like attack Russia or America, could it be that they would emerge out of WW2 as winners, in the sense that they met their strategic goals?
How plausible is this? Is there anything I'm forgetting or overlooking?
First off, two points:
- By 1931, I've read that the IJA could no longer be controlled and was pretty much going to invade China proper no matter what. Also it was a pretty big priority on the part of the Japanese gov. to get China under their realm of influence.
- In the early 30s, there was an active struggle between the KMT and CCP, and in fact it was the Japanese aggression that created the cease-fire.
So basically, my idea is that for some reason, the civil war in China doesn't get put on hold, and when Japan invades, Chiang Kai-shek is even more screwed.
Now the second thing that needs to happen is for the KMT and Japan to negotiate (again!). This shouldn't be so difficult on Chiang's part especially if he suffers even more crushing defeats without any hope in sight. But what Japan needs to realize is that it would be fucked in the long run if it tried to swallow China.
So we need a Japanese leadership that is happy to accept a peace with Chiang and sees the situation a little more realistically. Japan would get its goal of a disunited, weak China, and would probably be able to squeeze some favorable terms out of the KMT, giving it resources and development rights, etc.
Then, assuming Japan doesn't do something stupid like attack Russia or America, could it be that they would emerge out of WW2 as winners, in the sense that they met their strategic goals?
How plausible is this? Is there anything I'm forgetting or overlooking?