1832
October 11
Japanese rice transport ship
Hojunmaru sets sail but is shortly caught in a storm and blown out into the Pacific. The storm breaks the ships mast and rudder, making it drift hopelessly along the currents.
1833
The crew of the
Hojunmaru tries to survive on their rice supply and desalinated water
early 1834
The ship finally makes landfall at Cape Alava in Washington. There are 3 survivors, including 15 year old Otokichi
(1). They are all looked after and enslaved by the Makah tribe
late 1834
The trio is handed over to the representative of the Hudson Bay company, who sends them on the ship HMS Eagle to London, in order to convince the British government to use them in an effort to open up trade to Japan
1835
Otokichi and his buddies arrive in London, the first Japanese to do so since Christopher and Cosmas in the 16th century.
POD: the British decide to take advantage of the opportunity. Otokichi stays in London for an extra year and a half before departing
1839
Otokichi is part of a small Royal Navy expedition (2) to Japan. The ships are fired upon though and are forced to return. Plans for a larger, armed, expedition are postponed due to the outbreak of the First Opium War
1842
First Opium War ends in British victory. The British make sure that news of their destruction of the Chinese fleet makes its way to Japan
1843
News of the Opium War shocks the Japanese. British expedition to Japan forces it to open up to outside trade.
1844
The debate that had been raging in Japan between 'modernists' and 'traditionalists' sees the 'modernists' win out, with men such as
Egawa Hidetatsu (3) achieving high status at court, particularly after Tokugawa Ieyoshi's mysterious death that year, that left his infant son as Shogun, controlled by a council dominated by Egawa.
1845
Japan proclaims sovereignty over the whole of Sakhalin island (OTL) (4)
A request is made for a Dutch military mission
1846
Dutch military mission arrives
1849
Russian settlers begin establishing coal mines, administration facilities, schools, and churches on the Sakhalin following the voyage of Gennady Nevelskoy
1850
Construction of a Japanese Navy is kicked into full gear, with multiple frigates (5) being constructed based on Dutch and western designs
1851
Japan acquires its first steam-powered warship, a screw-propelled steam frigate bought from the Dutch
1852
The first domestically-constructed steam ship is finished in Satsuma (6)
1853
Crimean War breaks out. Tensions in Sakhalin continue to escalate
early 1854
The first domestically-constructed steam gunboat is finished
August 1854
Anglo-French warships capture the Russian island base of Sitka. Finding no Russian warships present, they depart
September 1854
The Russian garrison of Petropavlovsk defeats the Anglo-French expedition sent against it (7)
October 1854
Urged on by the retreating allied captains, Japan declares war on Russia and sends its fleet and a sizeable ground force to Petropavlovsk
November 1854
Russian frigate Diana arrives in Japan, having rounded Asia, not knowing of the latter's hostility. In the ensuing fight, the ship is damaged and grounded, and later salvaged by the Japanese.
December 1854
With the winter getting worse, the Japanese launch an all-out assault on the Russian fortress, which succeeds
1855
Japanese troops secure northern Sakhalin, the island of Sitka and the handful of Russian coastal outposts in Alaska. Resistance in the Aleutians and Alaska is limited, but casualties due to shipwrecks and weather conditions abound.
A Japanese embassy is sent to Europe.
late 1855
Japanese forces occupy the last remaining Russian naval base in the area at mouth of the Amur river
1856
The Congress of Paris sees Sakhalin, the Kurile Islands, Kamchatka, the Aleutian Islands and Alaska handed over to Japan in light of the situation on the ground. Japan agrees to retreat its forces from the Amur river and to give up the Alaskan Panhandle to Britain.
Thoughts?
(1) - OTL, Otokichi wound up taking part in a later British mission to Japan (and was even under consideration to take part in Perry's earlier expedition), a trip that ended with the Anglo-Japanese friendship treaty, after which he was lavishly rewarded by HM Government
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otokichi
(2) - not unlike the OTL one privately attempted by American trader Charles W. King
(3) -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egawa_Hidetatsu
(4) -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakhalin#Russo-Japanese_rivalry
(5) - such as
this one
(6) - OTL, they built their first one in 1855
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_gunboat_Chiyodagata
(7) -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Petropavlovsk