Japan joins the Central Powers

Let us assume that in an alternate World War One, Japan, being very opportunistic, joins the Central Powers. This gives Japan the opportunity to seize French Indochina, parts of the Russian far East, and perhaps even the Dutch East Indies.* The biggest Japanese difficulty to Japan in this scenario is Britain, which has a considerable large fleet. In order to allow Japan to join the Central Powers, we either need to get Britain out of the war entirely, or have Britian so tied up in Europe, that it cannot stop Japan. Take your pick. So, after the Central Powers win this alternate WW1, Japan now does have an Empire by 1918. How will this effect the development of Japan, and East Asia in general? Japan can now play up its role in fighting colonial Western powers, which could give the Japanese a lot of political credit with many Asians. Perhaps Japan could actually try and fulfill the role of "Protector of the Asian World" by creating the Greater East Asian Co-prosperity Sphere years earlier than OTL. I wonder, will Japan still want to invade China as IOTL? This will also cause conflict with the USA eventually, because the Philippines are smack in the middle of the new Empire. Butterflies galore!

So how plausible is this scenario, and what are the effects?

*The Germans intended to invade the Netherlands in the original Schlieffen plan, but it was changed IOTL.
 
I would consider that the Japanese will be moving 'gently' in the Far East as long as the US remains neutral. They don't have the bases, Taiwan is the closest I believe, to striking at the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines sit squarely across their lines of communication and supply. I can consider gains in China and Russia, but the US strengthens its Asiatic Squadron.

Net result, probably earlier US-Japan war.
 
The best chance for Japanese intervention on the side of the CP is if Germany implements a Russia first strategy and avoids the invasion of Belgium. This would make it more difficult for Lord Grey to bring the UK into the war. With this as a starting point the AH debacle in Galicia could be butterflied. After Serbia is defeated in 1915 Italy might be brought into the CP with promises of Nice, Corsica, Tunisia etc.

Germany can offer to cede the Northern Marianna's to Japan as a sweetener for declaring war on Russia. Once Vladivostok is neutralized Japan could seize French Indochina which is not heavily garrisoned.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Yeah, the best way to get Japan into the Central Powers is to somehow keep Britain out, since Japan would have problems fighting the British fleet, and reaaly no desire to risk defeat, and Japan and Britain had good relations at the time.
 
The best chance for Japanese intervention on the side of the CP is if Germany implements a Russia first strategy and avoids the invasion of Belgium. This would make it more difficult for Lord Grey to bring the UK into the war. With this as a starting point the AH debacle in Galicia could be butterflied. After Serbia is defeated in 1915 Italy might be brought into the CP with promises of Nice, Corsica, Tunisia etc.

Germany can offer to cede the Northern Marianna's to Japan as a sweetener for declaring war on Russia. Once Vladivostok is neutralized Japan could seize French Indochina which is not heavily garrisoned.

I like this, but you say Germany avoids the invasion of Belgium by invading Russia first. Then what? Do they wait until Russia is done and invade Belgium after that? Do they invade Belgium while Russia is getting its butt kicked? How do the Italians get Nice, Corsica, etc. without the invasion of Belgium? Wasn't France's main defensive line along their border with Germany, which is why the Germans went through Belgium in the first place?
 
Yeah, the best way to get Japan into the Central Powers is to somehow keep Britain out, since Japan would have problems fighting the British fleet, and reaaly no desire to risk defeat, and Japan and Britain had good relations at the time.

Very true.

Another possibility would be Japan switching sides during the war. They start as Allies, but then the Germans do better, the US stay neutral, and when it becomes clear that the CP win the war the Japanese make a deal with the Germans that they will buy the German colonies they occupied and attack Russian far east to gain Mandschuria, Northern Sachalin and maybe the Russian Far-Eastern Provinces.
 
I think it'd be quite difficult to get Japan to join the Central Powers in WW1. For one, Japan has a standing alliance with Britain at the time, but secondly, I think the Japan of 1914 is very different from that of the 1930s. I just don't think they are capable of attacking Indochina, Indonesia, and a foothold in the Russian far-east all at the same time.

For one, the financial situation of Japan is quite weak. The Japanese were relieved that the Russo-Japanese war ended as quickly as it did, for it had stretched Japanese finances and had ended up costing more than they intended. They would not want a prolonged conflict in this case, either. Allying with the Entente was important because after the German colonies were seized, there was little else Japan had to do. It was an operation that probably cost very little but brought many benefits.

Second, they risk overstretching themselves trying to digest that much territory early on. I believe they sided with the allies OTL, not only because of the standing alliance with Britain, but because it was easier to pick at the few morsels that Germany possessed at the time in the orient than actually trying to take Indochina or any other allied territories. Japanese policy had been directed towards China since the Meiji restoration, from the plans to annex Korea, and further influence that they sought in Manchuria. Seizing Qingdao was very important in further nudging further into China, not to mention it was very close to Japanese occupied Korea and Port Arthur, which they leased. While seizing Hong Kong and possibly Macau (Portugal was an allied power, after all) would be important as well, and possible from the Japanese bases in Taiwan, I'm not sure if they would go as far as invading Indochina or Indonesia.
 
One problem is obvious: If the CP doesn't win the war Japan is finished as an imperial power. No colonies, no navy, ruinous reparations, the loss of the trade which brought them more wealth than any nation except the US...and Japan was presumably smart enough to know this, which was why every one of the German proposals to Japan somehow and most mysteriously would find a way to the British in amazingly short order.

Almost as if someone was passing it on to London...;)
 
The best chance for Japanese intervention on the side of the CP is if Germany implements a Russia first strategy and avoids the invasion of Belgium. This would make it more difficult for Lord Grey to bring the UK into the war. With this as a starting point the AH debacle in Galicia could be butterflied. After Serbia is defeated in 1915 Italy might be brought into the CP with promises of Nice, Corsica, Tunisia etc.

Germany can offer to cede the Northern Marianna's to Japan as a sweetener for declaring war on Russia. Once Vladivostok is neutralized Japan could seize French Indochina which is not heavily garrisoned.
Perhaps the Japanese could attack Russia along with the Germans? The Germans would be doing the brunt of the work, but still, Japan seizing what it couldn't take in the 1904 war would distract Russia. Actually, since this is an ATL, we could just roll up the 1904 war into this version of WW1, giving Japan more reason to join the CP.

I think it'd be quite difficult to get Japan to join the Central Powers in WW1. For one, Japan has a standing alliance with Britain at the time, but secondly, I think the Japan of 1914 is very different from that of the 1930s. I just don't think they are capable of attacking Indochina, Indonesia, and a foothold in the Russian far-east all at the same time.

For one, the financial situation of Japan is quite weak. The Japanese were relieved that the Russo-Japanese war ended as quickly as it did, for it had stretched Japanese finances and had ended up costing more than they intended. They would not want a prolonged conflict in this case, either. Allying with the Entente was important because after the German colonies were seized, there was little else Japan had to do. It was an operation that probably cost very little but brought many benefits.

Second, they risk overstretching themselves trying to digest that much territory early on. I believe they sided with the allies OTL, not only because of the standing alliance with Britain, but because it was easier to pick at the few morsels that Germany possessed at the time in the orient than actually trying to take Indochina or any other allied territories. Japanese policy had been directed towards China since the Meiji restoration, from the plans to annex Korea, and further influence that they sought in Manchuria. Seizing Qingdao was very important in further nudging further into China, not to mention it was very close to Japanese occupied Korea and Port Arthur, which they leased. While seizing Hong Kong and possibly Macau (Portugal was an allied power, after all) would be important as well, and possible from the Japanese bases in Taiwan, I'm not sure if they would go as far as invading Indochina or Indonesia.

Your logistics points is a very good one, but consider that post-war peace treaties. Say Japan joins the Central Powers, who then win. The Treaty of Versailles gives Japan Indochina and perhaps Indonesia, and suddenly the Japanese empire expands fairly easily.
 
One problem is obvious: If the CP doesn't win the war Japan is finished as an imperial power. No colonies, no navy, ruinous reparations, the loss of the trade

Absolutely. Therefore, without any major POD years before WWI started we have only two chances:

1. Japan remains neutral early on. Somehow, the CP seem to win, and opportunistic Japan joins the CP in the last months of WWI, probably the Germans promised them some of their pacific belongings.

2. Japan thinks the Allies win and joins them rather early in the war. Takes over some of the German belongings in the pacific, but remain a side theater. Again, somehow, the CP seem to win. Opportunistic Japan now changes sides to get another bit of easy loot from the loosing Allies.

Notably, in both cases, Japan joins the CP only very late in the war and only in case they are about to win anyway.
 
Taking on the Dutch East Indies in WW1 is foolish, at that time the navy and army there were still rather modern, in WW2 they were outdated. The Jappos might take some islands but never make it to the islands that matter, it would also be dangerous for the Germans, for that would start a new front, and eventhough the Dutch main army was not that strong it would take even more imporant meterials away from the German war effort.

The Netherlands harbours like Rotterdam were rather important to Germany at that time. Also allowing the Dutch to enter the war would mean the DUtch would march (considering it would get support) on the Ruhr and important german harbours within Dutch reach.

Also Australia would then aid the Dutch East Indies ASAP, causing quite some problems.
 
Taking on the Dutch East Indies in WW1 is foolish, at that time the navy and army there were still rather modern, in WW2 they were outdated. The Jappos might take some islands but never make it to the islands that matter, it would also be dangerous for the Germans, for that would start a new front, and eventhough the Dutch main army was not that strong it would take even more imporant meterials away from the German war effort.

The Netherlands harbours like Rotterdam were rather important to Germany at that time. Also allowing the Dutch to enter the war would mean the DUtch would march (considering it would get support) on the Ruhr and important german harbours within Dutch reach.

Also Australia would then aid the Dutch East Indies ASAP, causing quite some problems.
Is it possible that, without seizing them in war, Japan could get the islands in the end of the war treaty, like so many others gained German colonies?
 
No, there is no possibility of Japan getting the property of a neutral nation in the same way members of the Entente were awarded captured German colonies. If Holland was a member of the Entente, even forced in as Belgium was, the chances are below zero.
 
Why should Japan be that interested in the Dutch East-Indies anyway at that time? Wouldn'T it too much a price for Japan?

If Japan joins the CP, they may get all German pacific islands (besides Samoa) or all besides New Guinea. Plus Kiautschou and maybe a further French treaty port. That's more than they gained IOTL.

Furthermore, as discussed above, Japan will join the CPs only if they're winning. Which implies that Russia lost. Hence Northern Sachalin would be available at least as well as reduced Russian influence/presence in East Asia. If Russia is completely defeated and falls into civil war, the Japanes might also intervene together with Germany in the Russian civil war which promises even more gains.

Really, I think the Dutch East Indies would overcompensate Japan's contribution to a CP win - and likely not being in Germany's best interest.
 
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