Japan joins in on Barbarossa

Guys

Depending on the exact time and nature of the POD but presuming that it occurs in 41 then Japan is stuffed. It might win some ground against Russia but the allied boycott is already in place by July 41. Can N Sakhalin supply enough oil to maintain the Japanese war machine and industry? It can't supply the rubber or the scrap iron that the boycott also cut off. Also while Japan is spending its strength in Siberia the US is boosting its position as air units reach the Philippines and the fleet increases. If it gets into a war with Germany say early 42 then more resources will be available in the Atlantic and Europe but the US position will continue to strengthen while that of Japan weakens. Britain's position is also much, much greater without having to suddenly switch forces to a desperate crisis in the Pacific.

I can't see Roosevelt loosening the economic noose on Japan either. The Americans will still want to help the Chinese and this will be even more important with aid from Russia to them cut. Also they will underestimate the Japanese while the fact Japan is involved in a war with Russia, an ally of Britain [and the US when it joins the war] is likely at the very least to make US forces in the Pacific far more alert to any attack from Japan even as its capability to do such an attack declines. Might even well have a dow on Japan by the US under such circumstances.

The only advantage of this for Japan would be if it forced Russia over the edge. However since Hitler was determined on total victory, a leaning that would have been strengthened by a Japanese entry into the 'crusade' against Bolshevikism, this is unlikely. Stalin might be foolish enough to send more forces than needed against Japan, which might mean more losses in European Russia. However, unless the Germans take Moscow, and the last chance for that went with the switch south to Kiev, Russia will fight on. The Germans advancing further into Russia might even shorten the war as there is the chance for defeats that make Stalingrad look like a playground squabble. Loss of the L-L route will hurt and I did read that something like 60% went via Vladivostok. However that was largely towards the end of the war and as such eased the Soviet victory rather than avoided defeat.

There is one awkward problem. Britain and Russia were allied after a fashion once Germany attacked the latter. Britain ultimately declared war on Finland in Nov 41 [I think], which was delayed due to Britain’s sympathy for the Finns after the earlier Soviet aggression. In TTL Stalin is going to be demanding a British dow on Japan. More likely to occur quickly in that its an aggressive dictatorship that has initiated a war. Less likely in that Japan is a powerful maritime state able to hit an overstretched Britain hard. Could have complication in terms of when Britain issues such a dow and what the attitude the US would take if the Japanese start seizing the Dutch Indies as part of the resultant war with Britain? However given that they wouldn't have total surprise in such a circumstance and key areas could well be reinforced it would still be likely to be a bad move for the Japanese.

Steve
 
If Stalin leaves Zhukov and those forces in the Far East then Moscow falls. If he delays the choice another few days Moscow is a shattered wreck.

And if he does everything as OTL then there will be no Lend Lease coming through Vladivostok for the duration of the war.

Even if the Soviet position around late 1942 isn't demonstrably worse than OTL why wouldn't Stalin be even more inclined to do a deal, especially if, as we appear to agree on, Japan gets curb stomped by the Red Army's tanks and isn't able to demand much and since the UK and US are still in no position to give much direct aid and North Africa is the best the WA can do for a military diversion.

After all, no amount of US naval activity is going to divert the Japanese Army on the mainland.
 
If Stalin leaves Zhukov and those forces in the Far East then Moscow falls. If he delays the choice another few days Moscow is a shattered wreck.

I was presuming most still go west. However if memory serves me rightly they were used chiefly in the counter attacks that drive the Germans back from Moscow not in stopping Typhoon. If so the counter-attacks, more heavily dependent on newly raised militia units suffer heavier losses and make less progress but the Germans don't get Moscow. They might be close enough to try in 42 but could be a disaster for either or both sides. However more likely to be a disaster for Germany and one their less likely to survive.

And if he does everything as OTL then there will be no Lend Lease coming through Vladivostok for the duration of the war.

Agreed. So? It was relatively unimportant early on and the allies can try sending more resources by other routes. With no Pacific war they can commit a lot more MS and escorts to the Murmansk route for instance. Even if what's shipped OTL isn't replaced it makes the later Soviet advances slower and more costly but they still occur.

Even if the Soviet position around late 1942 isn't demonstrably worse than OTL why wouldn't Stalin be even more inclined to do a deal, especially if, as we appear to agree on, Japan gets curb stomped by the Red Army's tanks and isn't able to demand much and since the UK and US are still in no position to give much direct aid and North Africa is the best the WA can do for a military diversion.

At this point Stalin might still be willing to deal but would Hitler? Historically he was only willing to do so much later and even then still wanted more than was realistic at the time.

After all, no amount of US naval activity is going to divert the Japanese Army on the mainland.

Not directly. [Don't forget we're presuming that the two aren't at war]. However the Japanese, fighting in China and Siberia and will a western economic boycott are going to face serious economic problems. Also, while L-L isn't going via Vladivostok it will be pumping up the Burma road, keeping the Chinese fighting.

Steve
 
Note: Japan doesn't do a DOW on America= Germany doesn't either= America has no real reason to do a DOW on either of them. Butterflies.
 
Japan is beaten badly in ground forces, tank designs, but has a real edge in the skies
Where did this edge come from? IOTL Japanese could not do anything outstanding against Soviet "volunteers" flying oldish I-15 and I-16 for KMT until 1942. Despite heavy Japanese numerical superiority, Soviets inflicted at least as much damage as they suffered.
and, given Stalin's mental breakdown and oddball Stavka orders, probably manage to grab Sakhalin and Vladivostok with the country in complete confusion.
Sakhalin is possible. I don't know how much troops Soviets kept there in 1941, but Japanese likely could pull Philipines on them. However, to pull Singapore on Vladivostok would be something unlikely, even if Stalin is turned into raving mad. Read on Sevastopol siege of 1941-1942 and keep in mind that Sevastopol was, as a fortress, inferior to Vladivostok.
The Element of Surprise has passed and the Red Army will almost certainly attempt to hold Kharbovosk.
That would be tough, the city is next door to Manchuria.
The only thing stopping the Red Army from smashing the IJA like a bug is the emerging crisis in the Western Front.

Instead of sending reinforcements to fight the Germans, they've also got to fight the Japanese.
IOTL Soviets kept enough (in their opinion) forces on Far East to fight defensive war against Japan even in darkest hours of 1941. Far Eastern Front (as it became known back then, even without actual fighting) managed to train enough local recruits to maintain troop strength even with all the "Siberian" divisions sent westward.

Oh yes, and Northern Sakhalin never could produce enough oil to satisfy Japanese needs.

I would suggest something like this: Vladivostok holds it's own against Japanese attack, but all other Pacific coast is lost to USSR. Japanese cut Transsib railway at several points, which is of lesser importance (Lend Lease isn't going through Vladivostok anyway). Soviets are fighting a battle of attrition with Japanese from Baikal to Pacific coast, with both sides making relatively minor gains (Japanese making some progress in summer and Red Army taking it all back in winter). Much of LL is re-routed through Iran, Murmansk and Alaska (air bridge; it was used IOTL to supply a lot of warplanes, it would be used even more ITTL).

The Soviet Union was extremely stretched from 1941-42. The blockage of lend-lease to Soviet ports and attacking at the right moment could push them over the edge. Japan does not need to advance deep into Russia. They just have to pin down resources, manpower and Stalin’s attention. All they had to do was wait for Germany to win the war.
Japanese pinned down almost as much troops and resources just by being there as they could by fighting the war.

If Stalin leaves Zhukov and those forces in the Far East then Moscow falls. If he delays the choice another few days Moscow is a shattered wreck.
Have you ever heard about a guy named Chuikov? Well, he was in the 'hood in 1941, leading Soviet "volunteers" in China.
 
I agree, but the question is can they afford to throw all of them at the situation, as well as reinforcements when their numbers dwindle?

We may be asking the same thing, but I believe the critical issue is whether those reinforcements the Soviets had arriving right around as the Germans reached Moscow and especially during the Winter 1941 counter offensvies would have been available. I believe they would have had to send some, but could they have sent all with the Japanese involved? Even those sent, as the scale of the German invasion hit would their transfer west be delayed enough to impact important operations? I don't believe the Germans had the strength to take Moscow in 41 unless we alter Hitler's bad decisions but I'm not sure the soviets would have had quite the punch they had in their pushes. If the front doesn't move so far backwards for the Germans would they choose to go for the Caucasus and suffer their fate in Stalingard of would a closer proximity change the OKH thinking and persuade the Germans to renew a grab for Leningrad or flank and surround Moscow cutting off industry in the Urals and the capital itself?

Also, like mentioned ... would a Japanese attack require a British DOW? If so, they might have been much at least somewhat more prepared to defend the Japs in the Pacific. Would too much of the Japanese navy be tied up in Russian coastal operations to successfully repel British forces? If not, would the US sit by and watch the British knocked out and be surrounded by Japs in the East? A lot of questions arise. Timing is key, agreed.
 
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