Guys
Depending on the exact time and nature of the POD but presuming that it occurs in 41 then Japan is stuffed. It might win some ground against Russia but the allied boycott is already in place by July 41. Can N Sakhalin supply enough oil to maintain the Japanese war machine and industry? It can't supply the rubber or the scrap iron that the boycott also cut off. Also while Japan is spending its strength in Siberia the US is boosting its position as air units reach the Philippines and the fleet increases. If it gets into a war with Germany say early 42 then more resources will be available in the Atlantic and Europe but the US position will continue to strengthen while that of Japan weakens. Britain's position is also much, much greater without having to suddenly switch forces to a desperate crisis in the Pacific.
I can't see Roosevelt loosening the economic noose on Japan either. The Americans will still want to help the Chinese and this will be even more important with aid from Russia to them cut. Also they will underestimate the Japanese while the fact Japan is involved in a war with Russia, an ally of Britain [and the US when it joins the war] is likely at the very least to make US forces in the Pacific far more alert to any attack from Japan even as its capability to do such an attack declines. Might even well have a dow on Japan by the US under such circumstances.
The only advantage of this for Japan would be if it forced Russia over the edge. However since Hitler was determined on total victory, a leaning that would have been strengthened by a Japanese entry into the 'crusade' against Bolshevikism, this is unlikely. Stalin might be foolish enough to send more forces than needed against Japan, which might mean more losses in European Russia. However, unless the Germans take Moscow, and the last chance for that went with the switch south to Kiev, Russia will fight on. The Germans advancing further into Russia might even shorten the war as there is the chance for defeats that make Stalingrad look like a playground squabble. Loss of the L-L route will hurt and I did read that something like 60% went via Vladivostok. However that was largely towards the end of the war and as such eased the Soviet victory rather than avoided defeat.
There is one awkward problem. Britain and Russia were allied after a fashion once Germany attacked the latter. Britain ultimately declared war on Finland in Nov 41 [I think], which was delayed due to Britain’s sympathy for the Finns after the earlier Soviet aggression. In TTL Stalin is going to be demanding a British dow on Japan. More likely to occur quickly in that its an aggressive dictatorship that has initiated a war. Less likely in that Japan is a powerful maritime state able to hit an overstretched Britain hard. Could have complication in terms of when Britain issues such a dow and what the attitude the US would take if the Japanese start seizing the Dutch Indies as part of the resultant war with Britain? However given that they wouldn't have total surprise in such a circumstance and key areas could well be reinforced it would still be likely to be a bad move for the Japanese.
Steve
Depending on the exact time and nature of the POD but presuming that it occurs in 41 then Japan is stuffed. It might win some ground against Russia but the allied boycott is already in place by July 41. Can N Sakhalin supply enough oil to maintain the Japanese war machine and industry? It can't supply the rubber or the scrap iron that the boycott also cut off. Also while Japan is spending its strength in Siberia the US is boosting its position as air units reach the Philippines and the fleet increases. If it gets into a war with Germany say early 42 then more resources will be available in the Atlantic and Europe but the US position will continue to strengthen while that of Japan weakens. Britain's position is also much, much greater without having to suddenly switch forces to a desperate crisis in the Pacific.
I can't see Roosevelt loosening the economic noose on Japan either. The Americans will still want to help the Chinese and this will be even more important with aid from Russia to them cut. Also they will underestimate the Japanese while the fact Japan is involved in a war with Russia, an ally of Britain [and the US when it joins the war] is likely at the very least to make US forces in the Pacific far more alert to any attack from Japan even as its capability to do such an attack declines. Might even well have a dow on Japan by the US under such circumstances.
The only advantage of this for Japan would be if it forced Russia over the edge. However since Hitler was determined on total victory, a leaning that would have been strengthened by a Japanese entry into the 'crusade' against Bolshevikism, this is unlikely. Stalin might be foolish enough to send more forces than needed against Japan, which might mean more losses in European Russia. However, unless the Germans take Moscow, and the last chance for that went with the switch south to Kiev, Russia will fight on. The Germans advancing further into Russia might even shorten the war as there is the chance for defeats that make Stalingrad look like a playground squabble. Loss of the L-L route will hurt and I did read that something like 60% went via Vladivostok. However that was largely towards the end of the war and as such eased the Soviet victory rather than avoided defeat.
There is one awkward problem. Britain and Russia were allied after a fashion once Germany attacked the latter. Britain ultimately declared war on Finland in Nov 41 [I think], which was delayed due to Britain’s sympathy for the Finns after the earlier Soviet aggression. In TTL Stalin is going to be demanding a British dow on Japan. More likely to occur quickly in that its an aggressive dictatorship that has initiated a war. Less likely in that Japan is a powerful maritime state able to hit an overstretched Britain hard. Could have complication in terms of when Britain issues such a dow and what the attitude the US would take if the Japanese start seizing the Dutch Indies as part of the resultant war with Britain? However given that they wouldn't have total surprise in such a circumstance and key areas could well be reinforced it would still be likely to be a bad move for the Japanese.
Steve