I came across this site about Japanese Naval History http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Naval_history_of_Japan
With this Titbit --
Japan had the Ships needed
So Assuming the Christian Shimabara Rebellion doesn't happen [hand wave it away, or postpone it] and the Invasion takes place.
?What happens next?, keeping in Mind both the Short term and the Long term Power Projection capabilities of the two sides.
With this Titbit --
Invasion project of the Philippines
The Tokugawa shogunate had, for some time, planned to invade the Philippines in order to eradicate Spanish expansionism in Asia, and its support of Christian factions within Japan.
In November 1637 it notified Nicolas Couckebacker, the head of the Dutch East India Company in Japan, of its intentions. About 10,000 samurai were prepared for the expedition, and the Dutch agreed to provide four warships and two yachts to support the Japanese junks against Spanish galleons. The plans were canceled at the last minute with the advent of the Christian Shimabara Rebellion.
The was an uprising of Japanese peasants, most of them Christians, during the Tokugawa Shogunate in Japan in December 1637.
Japan had the Ships needed
They would also have settlements there alreadyRed Seal ships
From 1604, about 350 Red seal shipsRed seal ships, usually armed and incorporating some Western technologies, were authorized by the shogunate, mainly for Southeast Asian trade. Japanese ships and samurai helped in the defense of Malacca on the side of the Portuguese against the Dutch East India Company in 1606. Several armed ships of the Japanese adventurer Yamada NagamasaYamada Nagamasa would play a military role in the wars and court politics of Siam. William Adams, who participated in the Red Seal ship trade, would comment that "the people of this land (Japan) are very stout seamen".
Pre-colonial
Contact with the Philippine islands began when Japanese traders/merchants first settled in the archipelago during the 12th century AD when the Philippines was under the Luzon Empire and the Majapahit Kingdom. Notable settlements of the period include the ones along Lingayen Gulf.
Spanish era
The Japanese population in the Philippines has since included descendants of Japanese Catholics and other Japanese Christians who fled from the religious persecution imposed by the Tokugawa shogunate during the Edo period and settled during the colonial period from the 1600s until the 1800s. A statue of daimyo Ukon Takayama, who was exiled to the Philippines in 1614 because he refused to disvow his Christian beliefs, stands a patch of land across the road from the Post Office building in the Paco area of Manila. In the 1600s, the Spaniards referred to the Paco Area as the 'Yellow Plaza' because of the more than 3,000 Japanese who resided there.[2]
Many of the Japanese men intermarried with Filipino women (including those of mixed or unmixed Spanish and Chinese descent), thus forming the new Japanese mestizo community.
So Assuming the Christian Shimabara Rebellion doesn't happen [hand wave it away, or postpone it] and the Invasion takes place.
?What happens next?, keeping in Mind both the Short term and the Long term Power Projection capabilities of the two sides.
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