Japan invades the NEI without any action against the US or Britain

A credible one, then.

That would be pretty easy from London's point of view then wouldn't it? The credible Dutch Government in Exile would be that which promised to help marshal 'free' Dutch forces to fight against the Nazis and their allies. That would be the government recognized as being credible - wouldn't it?
 
In fact the dutchs, belgians and luxemburguese after the fall of France had been disposed to made a peace with Germany even with the surely concessions of these governments to the victorious germans.

Unfortunately for the germans, Hitler considered the whole Europe as a field for sack and get resources for his war, so Hitler not considered the idea of making peaces with the governments in the exile of these nations as a "logic idea" he considered that after the fall of France, the british would demanded a surrender, the negotiations of peace would be based in the fact that british maintains his empire and Hitler controls all Europe, so for Hitler the idea of trying to profit the moment of the fall of France to make peaces with the nations of the Benelux was "stupid" so all the propositions that were given to Germany were clearly refused.

But what if Hitler dies at the bombing of november 1939, although some could say that this had seen a compromise peace between the new leadership and the Western allies, there is another possibility, as nowadays know the economical exchanges between Soviet Union and Germany and another consecuences of the collaboration between Soviet Union and Germany (for example the use of a soviet Harbour as germany naval base for permitting his ships use the north artic route to elude allied warships in sending germany corsairs and merchants in direction of Asia) had permitted to Germany defeat the economic blockade of the Allies (in fact Germany obtained far more resources and benefits of the collaboratiaon with the soviets during the period of september 1939-june 1941 -the last train with soviet resources to Germany was sent... the 22nd june 1941! few hours before the german invasion of Soviet Union- that with the the sacking of the occupated regions of the Soviet Union during 1941-44) so what if the new leadership (Goering or could be some kind of nazi junta) had delayed the invasion of the West until had studied better the plans, what if Guderina had succeeded in convincing the new nazi leaders in implement his plan, the invasion schedule had could be concentrated in invading The West in april (no Scandinavian campaign), if the germans suceed in defeat the french, the nazi leaders without Hitler could be more receptive to peace offers from the netherlands and belgians, forming some kind of Vichy governments in this region that would be recognised even in the case of Free government in the exile by some important governments as the legals goverments (USA for example maintained diplomatic relationships with Vichy France and was very reluctant to acknowledge the Free France of De Gaulle), plus more the existance of all a seried of Vichy Governemnts in the West that would be backed by important sectors of the political parties or institutions would give more legitimity to these goverments in front of possible free governments in the exile, in these case the NEI would easily aligned with the Vichy government of Netherlands.
 
Maybe if Japan attacks the NEI, the U.S. or Australia will grab Dutch New Guinea (and Western Timor?) just to keep the Japanese out.
 
Problem with a "Vichy" Netherlands's Government in late 1940-
They would end their participation in the US Boycott of Japan,
With the DEI's again selling Oil, Rubber and other supplies, there would be less pressure for Japan to move south in the Pacific.
Japan would still have the US steel Boycott to worry about, but they would have a breathing space that OTL the Boycott prevented.

A 1942 with Japan still concentrating on China, instead of sending resources into the Pacific, would be Interesting.
 
Even if there is a Vichy NEI, Japan will probably still take over a few bases and send some troops in like they did with Indochina.
 
Well, in this kind of scenario, Japanese would do best if they somehow helped Indonesian indepedence movement beforehand to start a uprising against "oppresive Dutch" - then Japanese would have no choice but to "help their oppressed Asian brothers in their just fight against Dutch degenerate blood-suckers":D
 
I'm very interested in keeping this thread active, as I've always wondered about this.

In the long run, how much of Japan's needs could have been supplied through the NEI and French Indochina? Was there the possibility of normalised relations with the United States, which could greatly relieve pressure for resources on Japan?

Just taking the NEI, though, probably wouldn't be enough to placate the ultranationalists, who by this point were too deeply solidified in Japan. Something would blow up sooner or later, simply because that was the whole point to their ideology: hegemony over the Pacific, even if it's almost impossible to achieve against a nation with ten times the industrial base. To keep Japan out of WW2, an earlier POD is needed.
 
They'd have to get out of China to change US relations. Ironically getting out of China is probably a good idea.

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An earlier POD might centre around the war of 1905. The Japanese population got all hyped up for the war and viewed the (quite reasonable) peace treaty as a betrayal.

A less engaged population with a lower causality count (the Army doesn't do as well but takes way less losses) and the populace stays more moderate. This may mean Korea stays a protectorate or maybe is incorporated peacefully into the Empire (rather then the bone stupid way it happened IOTL) and skirmishes with China are kept to getting Manchuria and that's it. Without China as the objective maybe the Navy gets the upper hand.

Since the Navy was by far saner then the Army they force a much more moderate government to realize that war with America is crazy. Instead they spend time working on their current empire and anti-American forces in the Philippines with the idea that an independent (or pro-Japan) Philippines isn't a threat to control of the Dutch East Indies.

Despite butterflies World War II is probably going to be pretty similar over in Europe so I imagine a little but of force and money and German support (in return for naval technology?) get them the Dutch East Indies.

They then sit back (with no American embargo) and kick-start their empire to being a major economic and (this time) military power much earlier. They may or may not be able to grab French IndoChina but ITTL they may be more concerned with (somewhat forced, I imagine) the creation of a Japanese culture for all their subject peoples versus their silly insistence on race IOTL (and to this day, actually).

China would also be more stable with less Japanese interference.
 
Plus the other islands; I think he would be tempted otherwise you could end up with a series of pro-Nazi bases in the Caribbean.

If it ever came to that you'd see direct American intervention and annexation of those possessions.
 
well, I suppose that all depends how the ambassador is viewed; for example if other ambassadors join him for example.

I have no knowledge on Dutch ambassadors, I mean if the ambassador to London, for the sake of argument, a former governor of the NEI, who commanded a great deal of respect there still...

...but I suspect we could get bogged down in too many 'what ifs', we already have a few as it is!

Yeah, unless it was an ambassador that was, say, a recent former prime minister, it wouldn't matter. No dice.
 
My guess is that if the Japanese invade the NEI, the Brits will declare war a) in support of their allies and b) to keep resources out Japan's hands.

If the Japanese take the risk of bypassing the Phillippines, then the US doesn't declare war immediately (no casus belli, and FDR won't be able to get Congress to declare war to defend imperialism). OTOH, he will be able to beef up the Phillippines so they are defensible, even with MacArthur there. Then when war is declared some 6 months or so later, the US doesn't have to island-hop in for a couple of years, they can start from the Phillippines.

I'm assuming that the US and Japan would go to war eventually (6months or a year) because the US is likely to be doing some aggressive patrolling and the Japanese tended to be a bit aggressive (think Panay incident).

Note that this would strain relations between the US and UK (and the Netherlands). FDR repeatedly assurred the UK that a Japanese attack in SE Asia would cause the US to go to war in defence of Britain and the Netherlands, but he wouldn't be able to carry out that promise.
 
I made a similar proposal earlier. It was pointed out that ignoring the Philippines was asking for trouble.

But I agree, FDR can't do much to get us in WWII if we're not attacked at Pearl Harbor.
 
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