Japan invades the NEI without any action against the US or Britain

Thande

Donor
More of a thought experiment...I know this has come up before, but I don't know if it's been discussed in detail.

Never mind whether it's plausible that they could have decided on that cause of action - what would be the consequences if the Japanese had invaded and annexed the Netherlands East Indies in December 1941 without attacking Britain or the United States.

Could FDR have justified a declaration of war without an attack on American soil? I can't see Britain willingly adding another enemy to the war...
 
I think FDR wouldn't want to accept it, but I doubt he would have much of a choice. Churchill certainly wouldn't.

A major thing to consider, however, is that Anglo-American possessions lay directly on the way to the NEI so Japanese logistics may be difficult.
 
America would probally have attacked Japan yes.
Britain...Maybe we would join, depends on the likelyhood of America and Germany going to war. I know the president was pushing for it but would he be able to manage it after just having hit Japan?
 
This would have been a very dangerous scenairo for the US. Dangerous in the sense of public opinion, and indeed, many congressmen & scentators. FDR might have wanted to take action, and the US Navy might have had a high opinion of what they could do, yet many would have objected to getting involved in someone else's war - especially try to save the empire land of some European Colonial.
It might have taken another six months before the Americans got their 'act' together, and did something. Time for Japan to advance further, and/or defend more effectively when the time came.
It would also mean a delay in the declaration of war by the Germans (in support of Japan) against the US, and all that that would entail - U-boat war, 'Torch', US air raids, etc.

Pearl Harbor may have been a tactical victory (though even that could have been more so - with a follow on attack) for Japan. But a strategic disaster, it gave FDR want he wanted - not to fire the first shot, and the overwhelming support of the American people.
 
Can NEI be conquered without taking Philippines and/or Vietnam first?
The Japanese logistic line goes through Taipei, which is quite far away.
OTOH, Dutch forces in the NEI were quite limited, and I think that Japanese also had some local help.

Even more sneaky might be organising a major insurrection against the French in Indochina: the Japanese land troops to restore order, and then....
 
If a puppet Dutch regime screamed for protection, loudly backed by other puppet regimes in solidarity, the Japanese could have a pretext, however dodgy, to move into the NEI without starting a war. The US would be left with the options of starting a war in the face of negative propaganda, or accepting the fiat accompli. A few months would be enough for Japan to grab any handy booty, and a few months more would be enough for Japan to start milking its new cow. As for supply lines, with Japan holding NEI, French Indochina and Tiawan, it would be as well placed to gaurd supplies as the US forces in the Phillipines and truncated British forces in Malaya were to attack them.
 

The Sandman

Banned
I've always figured that the POD for this would be the Germans capturing the Dutch government before it can flee to Great Britain, and then forcing the Vichy Dutch to surrender the NEI to Japan a la French Indochina in OTL.
 

Thande

Donor
I've always figured that the POD for this would be the Germans capturing the Dutch government before it can flee to Great Britain, and then forcing the Vichy Dutch to surrender the NEI to Japan a la French Indochina in OTL.
That seems logical enough.

Or maybe even just the Nazis setting up a proper puppet Dutch government rather than running the Netherlands as occupied territory.
 
Indochina

Can NEI be conquered without taking Philippines and/or Vietnam first?
The Japanese logistic line goes through Taipei, which is quite far away.
OTOH, Dutch forces in the NEI were quite limited, and I think that Japanese also had some local help.

Even more sneaky might be organising a major insurrection against the French in Indochina: the Japanese land troops to restore order, and then....

The Japanese were occupying Indochina after the Fall of France. They had leaned on the Vichy govt and gotten them to allow the occupation.
 
In such a case, no need to worry about the supply line, or bother with Philippines. Handling properly some puppet local government would likely put Roosvelt in a very difficult situation, from a propaganda point of view.
 
I can't see Britain willingly adding another enemy to the war...

one thing you're forgetting-the Free Dutch. Ok, a small force number wise but symbolically important. Imagine the PR side if nothing else "whilst the Free Dutch fight to keep Britain free, Churchill does nothing to help that part of Holland (exc the west Indies colonies) that is not under the Nazi thumb free".
 

Thande

Donor
one thing you're forgetting-the Free Dutch. Ok, a small force number wise but symbolically important. Imagine the PR side if nothing else "whilst the Free Dutch fight to keep Britain free, Churchill does nothing to help that part of Holland (exc the west Indies colonies) that is not under the Nazi thumb free".
Well, Sandman's POD of there being no Free Dutch government also tackles that.
 

Thande

Donor
It would do, unless someone does something nasty and suggests a Dutch de Gualle who rallies the colonies:D
Hmm. Well, I can't imagine that having much support from the British. Let's face it, de Gaulle was almost more trouble than he was worth as it is, but had the potential to bring the large number of French in Africa (particularly strategically important North Africa, although that didn't pan out) on his side. But all a Dutch de Gaulle would have to offer for the British is the loyalty of the East Indies and Dutch Guyana...I'm not sure if Churchill would think it worth it.
 
Hmm. Well, I can't imagine that having much support from the British. Let's face it, de Gaulle was almost more trouble than he was worth as it is, but had the potential to bring the large number of French in Africa (particularly strategically important North Africa, although that didn't pan out) on his side. But all a Dutch de Gaulle would have to offer for the British is the loyalty of the East Indies and Dutch Guyana...I'm not sure if Churchill would think it worth it.

Plus the other islands; I think he would be tempted otherwise you could end up with a series of pro-Nazi bases in the Caribbean. Also wasn't the East Indies a large producer of oil and rubber at this stage? useful resources.
 

Thande

Donor
Plus the other islands; I think he would be tempted otherwise you could end up with a series of pro-Nazi bases in the Caribbean. Also wasn't the East Indies a large producer of oil and rubber at this stage? useful resources.
A direct British/Japanese war over the NEI would be interesting...
 
Are we forgetting the Aussies and Kiwis here? Surely they would object to a Japanese takeover and try to get Britain to do something about it?
 
A credible one, then.

well, I suppose that all depends how the ambassador is viewed; for example if other ambassadors join him for example.

I have no knowledge on Dutch ambassadors, I mean if the ambassador to London, for the sake of argument, a former governor of the NEI, who commanded a great deal of respect there still...

...but I suspect we could get bogged down in too many 'what ifs', we already have a few as it is!
 
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