Japan invades Manchuria during world war 1

Japan and China were, at least on paper, "allies" as both declared war on Germany. If Japan did this, IMHO at the end of the war they would probably be able to hold on to the German concessions they took but not the Pacific Islands. The UK-Japan Alliance ends sooner than the early 1920s.
 

raharris1973

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Could Japan invades Manchuria during world war 1 and establish a puppet state

What would be the impact

A lot probably depends on what year Japan tries this. If sufficiently early it could divide American focus as people say “but what will Japan do to our Far East trade?”

It would increase US cynicism about *both* opposing WWI coalitions.

Even if done after all of the USA and China are formally co belligerents with Japan against Germany, I think the Wilson Administration will press hard for a Japanese standdown after the war. If Japan defies this, it spends the 1920s as a pariah subject to western sanctions.
 
... I think the Wilson Administration will press hard for a Japanese standdown after the war. If Japan defies this, it spends the 1920s as a pariah subject to western sanctions.

The US pressured Japan into abandoning its Siberian incursion, despite strong anti Communist elements in the US.
 
Could Japan could have the west recognize Manchuria in exchange for leaving Siberia or have Manchuria turned into a Mandate

Not if the West opposed them, no. Economically they hold all the cards, and Japan needs to balance its position to hold what it had gained from an annoyed China. If the Anglo-French decide to stop actively backing Tokyo, it gets that much harder
 
How actively would they oppose a wartime ally

What kind of good ally would unilaterally jump the shark, make a huge power grab solely for their own benefit without consultion that alienates the world's biggest market, and then tries what amounts to a foot-dragging shakedown

Its also important to note that the foundation of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance (the thin thread that set the wartime diplomatic structure up) was the containment of Russia,: a threat that's no longer a concern to London. If it were, they'd be better served by withdrawing from Manchuria and holding on to the Transmur
 
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raharris1973

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Lets go with a 1915 date with no 21 demands

OK let's define what they do. If they invade and puppetize all Manchuria they will have to compensate Russia for its interests in the north, unless they want to disregard Russia and inadvertently boost arguments for Russia quitting the war earlier.

Britain and France will not have keeping Manchuria Chinese high on their priority lists with WWI on, and their interests are focused on other parts of China.

But this will be a diplomatic embarrassment for them, with any complications it creates with Russia, China or the US. So the British and French would not threaten navally, but could get to the point of denying high-tech military/naval exports, and loans, to Japan.

The Wilson Administration will not look kindly on this and would deny credits and strategic mineral exports.

This will create bad press for the Entente as a whole and weaken pro-Entente sympathies at least unless and until the Entente members separate themselves from the Japanese policy.

Much depends on how much the Chinese try to resist and are seen trying to resist.

What does Yuan Shikai do, protest and contest the Japanese move? Just protest? Get bought off by Japan. The less China resists and screams, the less bad the international backlash is for Japan.
 

raharris1973

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Japan and China were, at least on paper, "allies" as both declared war on Germany. If Japan did this, IMHO at the end of the war they would probably be able to hold on to the German concessions they took but not the Pacific Islands. The UK-Japan Alliance ends sooner than the early 1920s.

Why this particular combination instead of OTL’s? In OTL they had to get out of Shandong but kept the Pacific Mandates. Why are they finding it easier to hold Shandong here and impossible to hold Micronesia?
 
Why this particular combination instead of OTL’s? In OTL they had to get out of Shandong but kept the Pacific Mandates. Why are they finding it easier to hold Shandong here and impossible to hold Micronesia?

Because they aren't playing the Anglo-French diplomatic ball game. So no League of Nations mandates are likely to be granted to them, but on the flip side they're already thumbing their nose at European desires for mainland China
 

NoMommsen

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Could Japan invades Manchuria during world war 1 and establish a puppet state

What would be the impact
Honestly ... I wonder why they didn't do such thing IOTL.
Japan and China were, at least on paper, "allies" as both declared war on Germany.
...
Yeah, China did so ... oops : 14th August 1917 ... ooops-ooops : more than 2 1/2 years after the 21-Demands ... which already also "asked" for much more influence in -mostly- manchuria. The 'influence' the 'emberrased' diplomatics of the Entente had were marginally or 'cosmetically' at best (the officially stricken part put into a secret annex instead).

Don't see any reason, why they shoudn't be able to extent their demands or add some other demands later on.
... like ...
After some Honghzui-attacks/terroristic acts - maybe even paid for by the japanes - as sign of Russia being 'occupied' by its not too well running war in Europe in and therefore unable to guarantee the safty of the region due to the necessety of bringing these troops to Europe.
Ofc at the moment without any intention to NOT giving the russians control back ... later. :openedeyewink:

... in the processs of control 'supporting' some 'independence' movement against the corrupt Peking-regime ...

Wouldn't that have some appeal ? ... also to the 'long-noses' across the pacific, esp. the USA ?
 

BlondieBC

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Could Japan invades Manchuria during world war 1 and establish a puppet state

What would be the impact

The answer is clearly yes. And yes, they can likely hold it. The question becomes how does the long-term diplomatic situation play out.
 

BlondieBC

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Japan and China were, at least on paper, "allies" as both declared war on Germany. If Japan did this, IMHO at the end of the war they would probably be able to hold on to the German concessions they took but not the Pacific Islands. The UK-Japan Alliance ends sooner than the early 1920s.

The UK alliance was effectively dead when the 21 demands were made. Effectively, Japan was demanding exclusive sphere of influence to the Yellow River basin and other terms. ITTL, Japan taking Manchuria and not issuing the 21 demands might well improve relations with the UK compared to OTL. In 1920, everything north of the Great wall was clearly Chinese.
 

BlondieBC

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Could Japan could have the west recognize Manchuria in exchange for leaving Siberia or have Manchuria turned into a Mandate

Sure. If you have the army faction with more power in Japan, it might even work well. A very skilled Japanese diplomat might well be able to trade enough to satisfy all but the Russians, and maybe have the Russians in a ok situation diplomatically. The Aussies wanted the the Solomon and eastern New Guinea. The USA wanted Yap Island very badly, and would like a line from Hawaii to the PI. Japan has concessions in the Yangtze River basin that could compensate others. Russia needs help badly. The UK would like more Japanese naval and land involvement.

There is an ATL where this deal works. And everyone is happy. And there are a lot of ATL where this blows up some way.
 

BlondieBC

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Not if the West opposed them, no. Economically they hold all the cards, and Japan needs to balance its position to hold what it had gained from an annoyed China. If the Anglo-French decide to stop actively backing Tokyo, it gets that much harder

After the war, the "West" was too weak to defeat a Rump Ottoman Empire (AKA Turkey). The West cannot stop Japan if Japan decisively commits to this option.
 

BlondieBC

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What kind of good ally would unilaterally jump the shark, make a huge power grab solely for their own benefit without consultion that alienates the world's biggest market, and then tries what amounts to a foot-dragging shakedown

Its also important to note that the foundation of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance (the thin thread that set the wartime diplomatic structure up) was the containment of Russia,: a threat that's no longer a concern to London. If it were, they'd be better served by withdrawing from Manchuria and holding on to the Transmur

The United Kingdom comes to mind. They did after all attack the French Navy in WW2. The UK had the Suez Crisis. UK attacked the Danes in the Napoleonic era.

The Nazi betrayed the Russians while the Russians were cheating on the deal too.

Then there is that Munich thing that gave away the Czech freedom.

This kind of stuff happens all the time.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Honestly ... I wonder why they didn't do such thing IOTL.

Because they Japanese played the almost perfect game in WW1. For less than a regiment of losses, they greatly increased the sea buffer to the South and South East of Japan. The Japanese went from one of the weaker powers in China to the most important. IOTL, the Japanese were able to puppetize Manchuria at a later date.

If the army had just been more restrained and stayed north of the Great Wall and avoided WW2, the Japanese likely still control the area. And given the extra 3 generations, Taiwan and Korea are probably Japanese, much like Okinawa is Japanese. If immigration is encourage, Manchuria would be moving towards culturally Japanese. Japan probably gets nukes in the 1960's and before China, and the borders freeze.
 

raharris1973

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Could Japan could have the west recognize Manchuria in exchange for leaving Siberia or have Manchuria turned into a Mandate

Possible but would be unlikely unless a Chinese govt declares for the CP and does a massacre of Entente citizens in China.

But I am curious about what you had in mind for consequences when you posted the OP noscoper?
 
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