Japan invades Hawaii

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

What if the Japanese leadership decided that an attack on Pearl Harbor wasn't enough to 'scare' America out of a major war. They decide on a plan to invade Hawaii, and then use the islands as a negotiating chip against the USA.

So:

-Could Japan pull off an invasion of the Islands?

-What would be the long term consequences on the Pacific War?

-Might Japan prop up a puppet government? I know Hawaii was added to the USA a little over fourty years before, and I don't know how the local population felt about the USA.
 
Fenrir_Angerboda

Fenrir_Angerboda

Most people would say this is ASB, but assuming they could....

-possibly less troops in China.
-a very streached out supply line.
-as for local population it's a toss up.
-the Chinese, and Phillipinos won't like it, but a Resistance seems unlikely, remeber most of them were laborers in Sugarcane feilds.
-the Nisei will be less supportive then their parents. while their parents still see Japan as their Homeland, the Nisei see america as their Homeland. so it's split down the middle.
-The Native Hawaiians are also a toss up. on one hand a Puppet kingdom (by who though?) may please the ones who hate the USA for the illegal overthrow of the kingdom (something they still argue about today), while others may not be so supportive.

as for the acctual invasion I don't know.
 

Matt Wiser

Not likely for the following reasons:

1) Japan's overstretched overrunning SEA as it is. Any troop commitments have to come from the Army, which, until after the Doolittle Raid, refused to contribute troops. After that, they did alert three divisions (2nd, 7th, and 53rd), plus a tank regiment, along with artillery and engineers for an invasion of Oahu. The IJA was unwilling to lessen its war in China or take troops off the Soviet border in Manchuria (hoping to occupy the Soviet Far East if the Germans win in Summer of '42) until the events of 18 Apr 42.

2) Lack of shipping: The Japanese Merchant Marine was already strained by supporting ops in SEA, and in beginning the transport of materials back to Japan. Not to mention supporting Army and Navy routine operations. It would take 60 loads a month to supply Hawaii, and that's without U.S. submarine activities shrinking that.

3) No land-based air in range: everything has to come by carriers. Midway,if it fell, could support with land-based Betty and Nell bombers, but no fighters. Most air support would have to be carrier-based. And with only six heavy carriers prior to Midway, gaining air superiority over Oahu was very doubtful.

4) Overwhelming U.S. strength on Oahu: 42,500 Army and Marines on Oahu on 7 Dec 41, (two Army Divisions-24th and 25th), with more coming. 27th ID arrived in Jan 42, and by June of '42, 115,000 Army and Marines in Hawaii. Army, Navy, and Marine air strength was swiftly reinforced, and Hawaii was becoming a very tough nut to crack.

Bottom line: even if the Japanese try, failure is the most likely outcome.
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

Matt Wiser said:
Not likely for the following reasons:

1) Japan's overstretched overrunning SEA as it is. Any troop commitments have to come from the Army, which, until after the Doolittle Raid, refused to contribute troops. After that, they did alert three divisions (2nd, 7th, and 53rd), plus a tank regiment, along with artillery and engineers for an invasion of Oahu. The IJA was unwilling to lessen its war in China or take troops off the Soviet border in Manchuria (hoping to occupy the Soviet Far East if the Germans win in Summer of '42) until the events of 18 Apr 42.

2) Lack of shipping: The Japanese Merchant Marine was already strained by supporting ops in SEA, and in beginning the transport of materials back to Japan. Not to mention supporting Army and Navy routine operations. It would take 60 loads a month to supply Hawaii, and that's without U.S. submarine activities shrinking that.

3) No land-based air in range: everything has to come by carriers. Midway,if it fell, could support with land-based Betty and Nell bombers, but no fighters. Most air support would have to be carrier-based. And with only six heavy carriers prior to Midway, gaining air superiority over Oahu was very doubtful.

4) Overwhelming U.S. strength on Oahu: 42,500 Army and Marines on Oahu on 7 Dec 41, (two Army Divisions-24th and 25th), with more coming. 27th ID arrived in Jan 42, and by June of '42, 115,000 Army and Marines in Hawaii. Army, Navy, and Marine air strength was swiftly reinforced, and Hawaii was becoming a very tough nut to crack.

Bottom line: even if the Japanese try, failure is the most likely outcome.
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Assuming the army was given support, could one of the islands been seized? If the Marines are only on one island....(assuming they get the shipping/Midway).
 
Fenrir_Angerboda

Fenrir_Angerboda

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan said:
Assuming the army was given support, could one of the islands been seized? If the Marines are only on one island....(assuming they get the shipping/Midway).
Click to expand...

Something said:
What kind of idiot would only defend only one island if they have the troops to defend all?
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Oahu would be more importent than someplace like Molokai or Kauai.

However even if they can guard all islands, It would make sense to focus on defending (in order of importance)
1: Oahu (Pearl Harbor)
2: Hawaii/big island
3: maui
4: Lanai
5: molokai
6: kauai
7: Kaho'olawe. (there is nothing of value there at this time.)
 

Something

Fenrir_Angerboda said:
Oahu would be more importent than someplace like Molokai or Kauai.

However even if they can guard all islands, It would make sense to focus on defending (in order of importance)
1: Oahu (Pearl Harbor)
2: Hawaii/big island
3: maui
4: Lanai
5: molokai
6: kauai
7: Kaho'olawe. (there is nothing of value there at this time.)
Click to expand...

Thus why I said "if they have enough troops to defend all". Only defending one island is a big mistake concerning that Hawaii has other islands of substantial population, supplies, and etc.
 

karl2025

I really like this idea and have defended it, but it's honestly not possible. Even if they strip a garrison or two on the home islands for the troops, they don't have the transport ships needed to move them all the way to Hawaii AND hit all the important targets everywhere else.

Then there are detection issues and supply issues and conquer the island issues... Suffice it to say it's really impossible.

But, if they could pull it off I don't see how the war could go worse. They'd have a forward base from which they can keep the US at arms length for a good while, it'd secure their flanks as they press south against the Commonwealth forces and the Dutch. It's possible that they could last long enough to come to the peace table with the US and come away with some (very) minor gains.
 

Thucydides

I think that they could pull off the invasion but what they would have to do is destroy the carriers during the invasion. That would at least give the Japanese time to set up defenses on the islands, in fact it would give them about two years.
 
Fenrir_Angerboda

Fenrir_Angerboda

Something said:
Thus why I said "if they have enough troops to defend all". Only defending one island is a big mistake concerning that Hawaii has other islands of substantial population, supplies, and etc.
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Supplies?
if the invaders are going to live off Pineapple, taro and Sugarcane, they got supplies.

the only islands with a substantial Population are Maui, Oahu and Hawaii, and the population is varried.
Like I said earlier, any Chinese, Korean and Phillipinos willo be pissed off, while the Japanese will be split, between the Nisei and their parents.

also Most of the millitry goods are on Oahu making it most Vital, thus more protection.
someplace like Kauai or Molokai, could be ignored infavor of more troops in Oahu or Hawaii.
 

Something

Fenrir_Angerboda said:
Supplies?
if the invaders are going to live off Pineapple, taro and Sugarcane, they got supplies.
Click to expand...

They could :D joke

the only islands with a substantial Population are Maui, Oahu and Hawaii, and the population is varried.
Like I said earlier, any Chinese, Korean and Phillipinos willo be pissed off, while the Japanese will be split, between the Nisei and their parents.

also Most of the millitry goods are on Oahu making it most Vital, thus more protection.
someplace like Kauai or Molokai, could be ignored infavor of more troops in Oahu or Hawaii.
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I guess should have wrote down my last response more specifically instead of using a word as broad as "all":eek: But I hope you still get the meaning about it being foolish to defend just one island.
 

Condottiere

I think I remember reading a book by Turtledove on this exact same subject. Suffice it to say, the shock alone would put the US out of action for about a month (And that's hoping). Losing Hawaii as a naval base would hurt as well, and though it would be a quick boost for Japan (They could possibly consolidate their gains as is, and prepare for further actions against Australia or China.

Though knowing the US, they would jump start their industry (As in OTL) and still overrun Japan in the end. Unless Japan can negotiate a peace with the US (Unlikely), it's screwed (It's pretty much like OTL, except that Japan holds out for a little longer)

EDIT: Don't even think about Japan using the supplies or military services that Hawaii had. As destroying these things would probably be a top priority for American forces holding out.
 
Fenrir_Angerboda

Fenrir_Angerboda

Something said:
They could :D joke
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rot gut, rum and Taro for everyone!




I guess should have wrote down my last response more specifically instead of using a word as broad as "all":eek: But I hope you still get the meaning about it being foolish to defend just one island.
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I know. some islands defenses could be ignored for others, but the Residents won't be thrilled.
 
Fenrir_Angerboda

Fenrir_Angerboda

Firelizard said:
I think I remember reading a book by Turtledove on this exact same subject. Suffice it to say, the shock alone would put the US out of action for about a month (And that's hoping). Losing Hawaii as a naval base would hurt as well, and though it would be a quick boost for Japan (They could possibly consolidate their gains as is, and prepare for further actions against Australia or China.

Though knowing the US, they would jump start their industry (As in OTL) and still overrun Japan in the end. Unless Japan can negotiate a peace with the US (Unlikely), it's screwed (It's pretty much like OTL, except that Japan holds out for a little longer)

EDIT: Don't even think about Japan using the supplies or military services that Hawaii had. As destroying these things would probably be a top priority for American forces holding out.
Click to expand...

I read that book. that's where i got the 'Some hawaiians may support them if they make a Puppet Kingdom of Hawaii, some might not' thing from.
 

lothaw

Turtledove wrote a short series based on this. Days of Infamy and
End of the Beginning.

Pretty decent reads. Basiclly Japan has everything concievable go well for them, invading Hawaii, destroying the Pacific Fleet, crushing the US carriers, occupying Hawaii, and the morale of the story, they still lose once the US industry gets going. Not exactly plausable stuff, but hey.

That said, the story about the Japanesse occupation of Hawaii, the divided loyalties from the locals and the Hawaiians, the food problem, is a good read.
 
Shimbo

Shimbo

The only real possibility is if they invade right at the start of hostilities and and as there are not enough troops and logistics to invade Hawaii in addition to the other attacks, another major attack has to be canceled.

What if the troops that in OTL attacked the Philippines attack Hawaii and then double back to attack the Philippines? That might be possible, but it's going to make the invasion of the Philippines much tougher.

Of course, the industrial disparity between the USA and Japan will inevitably tell eventually but irretrievably losing the bulk of the Pacific Fleet on Day One will be a heavy blow to the USA.
 

Dean_the_Young

Shimbo said:
The only real possibility is if they invade right at the start of hostilities and and as there are not enough troops and logistics to invade Hawaii in addition to the other attacks, another major attack has to be canceled.

What if the troops that in OTL attacked the Philippines attack Hawaii and then double back to attack the Philippines? That might be possible, but it's going to make the invasion of the Philippines much tougher.
Click to expand...
'Double back'? So Japan is going to take shipping that it does not have to move troops from the war-starting, cassus belli campaign against the Philippines, go well past its range, invade Hawaii, and then get up and go back to the Philippines, giving up the element of surprise and ignoring the entire reason of going to war in the first place, which was to nullify the Philippines?

Japan's plans focused so much on the Philippines that they wouldn't occupy the East Indies until they took care of the Philippines.
Of course, the industrial disparity between the USA and Japan will inevitably tell eventually but irretrievably losing the bulk of the Pacific Fleet on Day One will be a heavy blow to the USA.
Click to expand...
The US did lose the bulk of the Pacific Fleet on Day One. We call it... Pearl Harbor. :rolleyes:
 
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