Japan in the Sino-French War

The French attempted to bring Japan into alliance with themselves as early as 1883, although as the military situation for France improved they dropped the idea. During the war, Japan used China's distraction to ferment a coup in Korea that ultimately was put down by the Chinese.

France was also willing to help the Japanese undo the unequal treaties with the British.

What if Japan had formed an alliance with the French in 1883 and fought against China with them?

I would imagine the Gapsin Coup would be a success (meaning a pro-Japanese modernizing Korea) and France might have the additional heft to grab the Pescadores and Taiwan (which they wanted to do but failed at historically). Japan meanwhile likely gains some other territory than Taiwan - Lushunkou/Dalian perhaps?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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What if Japan had formed an alliance with the French in 1883 and fought against China with them?

Both likely profit

I would imagine the Gapsin Coup would be a success (meaning a pro-Japanese modernizing Korea) and France might have the additional heft to grab the Pescadores and Taiwan (which they wanted to do but failed at historically). Japan meanwhile likely gains some other territory than Taiwan - Lushunkou/Dalian perhaps?

Earlier Japanese influence in Korea, possibly leading to earlier outright puppetization and annexation. If anything from mainland China (and it may not gain anything beyond Korea), Lushunkou/Dalian of Liaodong, and Qingdao and Weihaiwei on Shandong, might be potential targets

Potential extra territory for France, perhaps the Pescadores and Taiwan as suggested, or Hainan island and port concessions in southern coastal provinces

Japan's treaty relations with France are modernized earlier, which might help speed treaty revision overall.

Might Russia enter the war as a third wheel on the side of France & Japan?

I imagine their priority areas would be a) Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, basically the areas that they later ran the Chinese eastern railway through, and Outer Mongolia and northern Chinese Turkestan. Beyond that they could have interest in Lushunkou/Dalian themselves if Japan is not taking them, or deeper into Manchuria, Inner Mongolia or Chinese Turkestan.

Germany as a fourth wheel? Grabs a treaty port wherever one is available?
 
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The Avenger

Banned
Both likely profit

Earlier Japanese influence in Korea, possibly leading to earlier outright puppetization and annexation. If anything from mainland China (and it may not gain anything beyond Korea), Lushunkou/Dalian of Liaodong, and Qingdao and Weihaiwei on Shandong, might be potential targets

Potential extra territory for France, perhaps the Pescadores and Taiwan as suggested, or Hainan island and port concessions in southern coastal provinces

Japan's treaty relations with France are modernized earlier, which might help speed treaty revision overall.

Might Russia enter the war as a third whee on the side of France & Japan?

I imagine their priority areas would be a) Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, basically the areas that they later ran the Chinese eastern railway through, and Outer Mongolia and northern Chinese Turkestan. Beyond that they could have interest in Lushunkou/Dalian themselves if Japan is not taking them, or deeper into Manchuria, Inner Mongolia or Chinese Turkestan.

Germany as a fourth wheel? Grabs a treaty port wherever one is available?
Curious--why did Russia not join this war in our TL?
 
OTL, Japan was not inclined to join the Sino-French War or directly challenge China in Korea because of its poor financial position (mainly imbalance of payments due to importing modernized tools; even at the time of the Treaty of Portsmouth 1905 Japan was on the verge of being unable to support her military position), so the French would have to offer more than just treaty revision to get the Japanese in line.

Japan joining the war would play into the hands of the Qingliu (Purist) Faction within the Chinese court, which had argued for an aggressive Chinese policy against Russian, Korean, and Japanese encroachments. Li Hongzhang, the real decider, considered their ideas stupid given their wild exaggerations of Chinese power, and he was probably right, but probably would not have been politically strong enough had Japan actually intervened in Korea (coming so soon after the annexation of Ryukyu in 1877). Chinese intervention in Korea in a Japanese-French alliance is therefore a near certainty.

In such a case, I doubt the Kapsin Coup would actually have succeeded with or without Japanese + French help. The Chinese had made a real effort to entrench themselves in the Korean system after the the Imo Incident in 1882, and the rapid response to Kapsin OTL demonstrates this. Japan could of course escalate its effort and land troops in the South, but whether such an effort can be sustained (to the extent that it would produce results) in the medium-run given Japan's financial situation is unclear.

Even if Japan makes progress in Korea, that would come up against the Russian interest in keeping the status quo until such time as Russia could expand its presence in the region (OTL acknowledged in the Li-Ladyzhenskii verbal agreement 1886). A Japanese attempt to upend the status quo would definitely invite Russian intervention (just as the Chinese tightening of control over Korea OTL did, to a lesser degree), and with that would invite British intervention re: strategic interests over Port Hamilton/Gemundo. Even if the result was not war, but negotiation, this would translate into a formalization of Great Power interests/guarantees over Korea, which could only be to Japan's detriment - this is also probably why Japan did not push the Kapsin matter further. And without Korea, Japanese expansion into the Chinese mainland is out of the question.

One place where the Japanese-French alliance could generate concrete results is in the capture of Taiwan and the Pescadores: it's possible that Taiwan would be given to Japan and the Pescadores to France - I don't think France would necessarily bother with direct administration of Taiwan considering they would have Indochina to digest. I doubt Japan's schedule for the development of Taiwan would be altered that much, given Japan's financial position.
 

trurle

Banned
The French attempted to bring Japan into alliance with themselves as early as 1883, although as the military situation for France improved they dropped the idea. During the war, Japan used China's distraction to ferment a coup in Korea that ultimately was put down by the Chinese.

France was also willing to help the Japanese undo the unequal treaties with the British.

What if Japan had formed an alliance with the French in 1883 and fought against China with them?

I would imagine the Gapsin Coup would be a success (meaning a pro-Japanese modernizing Korea) and France might have the additional heft to grab the Pescadores and Taiwan (which they wanted to do but failed at historically). Japan meanwhile likely gains some other territory than Taiwan - Lushunkou/Dalian perhaps?
The Japan is likely to be shaken or even collapse in much worsened version of Chichibu Incident in November 1884. Less troops in Tokyo to suppress rebellion, and economic hardships associated with war will result in larger, rapidly spreading popular revolt.
 
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@profxyz Thank you for this very detailed analysis, very interesting!

I would just add I don't think it would have any major impact on the course of the war. The goals of the war was not any conquest of China but the severage of the tributary link of Vietnam to China.

With that war, France established itself as the uncontested power in Indochina and confirmed the subservient status of Annam. It also annexed Tonkin after renouncing it in 1873.
With that war and the presence of Chinese forces, France was also able to frame itself as fighting piracy in the delta of the Red River, although this is a murky claim as there was a Black Flag presence (I've never been super clear on that).

It's interesting to see that France did not ask (or get) any territorial concession despite the fact they had destroyed the Chinese navy and arsenals at very little cost to them and were already occupying the Pescadores. China could not have stopped them occupying any more territory.

It'd be interesting to know if there'd be any joint colonial venture with Japan providing a logistical base further North. I also wonder if we might see Japanese officers recruited and trained in French universities to assist colonial operations in Indochina and supervise Indochinese troups (as the Japanese were seen as more civilised, although I'm not sure by that point).
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Even if Japan makes progress in Korea, that would come up against the Russian interest in keeping the status quo until such time as Russia could expand its presence in the region (OTL acknowledged in the Li-Ladyzhenskii verbal agreement 1886). A Japanese attempt to upend the status quo would definitely invite Russian intervention (just as the Chinese tightening of control over Korea OTL did, to a lesser degree), and with that would invite British intervention re: strategic interests over Port Hamilton/Gemundo.

Would Russia assert itself in this theater in the middle 1880s though? The Trans-Siberian was as yet, just a dream. Russia seemed to be more concerned about Bulgaria, Afghanistan and the British Raj than the Far East.

Might the Franco-Japanese connection make Russia think even harder about pushing Japan around at this time? Perhaps into thinking that the better course is to pile on China.

When Russia wanted southern Sakhalin a decade earlier it treated Japan as an equal, trading the Kuriles to get Sakhalin. If Russia had thought Japan was a pushover, Russia would have been all take and no give instead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Saint_Petersburg_(1875)

Even if the result was not war, but negotiation, this would translate into a formalization of Great Power interests/guarantees over Korea, which could only be to Japan's detriment - this is also probably why Japan did not push the Kapsin matter further. And without Korea, Japanese expansion into the Chinese mainland is out of the question.

On the other hand, this could be the PoD I was looking for in another thread I started about getting western guarantees of Korean independence prior to Japanese annexation.
 
Would Russia assert itself in this theater in the middle 1880s though? The Trans-Siberian was as yet, just a dream. Russia seemed to be more concerned about Bulgaria, Afghanistan and the British Raj than the Far East.

Might the Franco-Japanese connection make Russia think even harder about pushing Japan around at this time? Perhaps into thinking that the better course is to pile on China.

When Russia wanted southern Sakhalin a decade earlier it treated Japan as an equal, trading the Kuriles to get Sakhalin. If Russia had thought Japan was a pushover, Russia would have been all take and no give instead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Saint_Petersburg_(1875)

I think there would be several concerns for Russia that would push it to intervene in Korea in the event of Japanese intervention:

1) Russia in 1884 actually did have the resources to intervene against Japan, having received reinforcements in a rush to upgrade its capabilities following the Ili Crisis in Xinjiang of 1877-1881.

2) It is unlikely that Russia would intervene against China over Korea: a) there was a healthy (maybe exaggerated) respect for the Chinese military during this period, with intel estimating the Chinese having around 260k modern rifles + artillery in Manchuria. b) Britain had intervened in favor of preserving China's territorial integrity during Ili and would likely do so again in response to Russian moves against China (which would inevitably involve Xinjiang). c) Russia would have known through diplomatic channels that Li Hongzhang was uninterested in pushing back Russia in Central Asia (to the extent that he even thought of conceding not just Ili, but Xinjiang to Russia), so why undermine his position and assist the rise of hawks?

3) Russia thought Japan was a pushover and the only reason it dealt with it in the 1870s because it feared a Japanese-Chinese alliance aimed against it in Manchuria. Even on the eve of the Russo-Japanese War the Russians held outlandish views about Japan's military capability like 'Japan lacks the moral base to match Europeans' (Vannovskii, in charge of Japanese intel) and that 'Japan was too atheist for war' (Kuropatkin, War Minister).

So in this scenario: 1) If Russia intervenes against China in conjunction with Japan + France, it might gain something (probably in Central Asia rather than Korea) but it would certainly bring on British intervention and Chinese antagonism, which was not worth it at all; and 2) if Japan makes gains in Korea, Russia would feel itself completely capable of intervening against Japan - not war, but pressured negotiations in order to guarantee Russian interests in Korea.

Ultimately, Russia (or at least the parts of Russia interested in the Far East) wanted to build up strength in the region until it could erode the Chinese periphery further (esp. Inner Manchuria), and for that it desired a static regional situation, hence the grudging acknowledgement of the Chinese position in Korea.
 

trurle

Banned
Would Russia assert itself in this theater in the middle 1880s though? The Trans-Siberian was as yet, just a dream. Russia seemed to be more concerned about Bulgaria, Afghanistan and the British Raj than the Far East.

Might the Franco-Japanese connection make Russia think even harder about pushing Japan around at this time? Perhaps into thinking that the better course is to pile on China.

When Russia wanted southern Sakhalin a decade earlier it treated Japan as an equal, trading the Kuriles to get Sakhalin. If Russia had thought Japan was a pushover, Russia would have been all take and no give instead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Saint_Petersburg_(1875)

On the other hand, this could be the PoD I was looking for in another thread I started about getting western guarantees of Korean independence prior to Japanese annexation.

Before the any consideration for land operations in Korea, how do you expect Japanese to hope to achieve the dominance in sea? Japanese naval build up has started IOTL only in 1882, with first cruisers arriving in late 1885, and 16 torpedo boats in 1888. They would have nearly nothing to challenge Zhenyuang (received by Chinese in early 1885), therefore any prolonged conflict in 1884-1885 would be catastrophic for Japanese. And do not forget about domestic Japanese problems (Chichibu rebellion in particular) i mentioned before too. Overall, for Japanese government transferring troops to Korea in 1884 would be a form of a very sure and easily predictable suicide, which require a sort of ASB insanity.
 
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Hmmm...

So Japan might lose out in Korea but gain Taiwan a decade earlier? France getting the Pescadores would be good for France (good place for the French navy and for trading). Might the French take Hainan here?

If the Russians and British both intervene in Korea along with the Chinese to stop the French and Japanese, might we see the Japanese gaining some other territory along with Taiwan? Perhaps Jeju and Tsushima at least. Maybe the British try to play France-Japan and Russia against one another and give Japan Port Arthur? Zhoushan or Qingdao maybe?

What would the intervention of Great Powers in Korea look like? How would influence be divvied up - could Korea end up as a Belgium-like neutral?
 
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