Japan in a world without Lenin, Hitler, and Mussolini

kernals12

Banned
It's generally accepted that preventing the Bolshevik revolution would also save us from Fascism which was a backlash to the threat of communism. So, if in 1939, Italy, Russia, and Germany are under democratic governments or at least non fascist ones, what happens to Japan? I don't think they'll be trying to take over Asia if they have no allies elsewhere.
 
It's generally accepted that preventing the Bolshevik revolution would also save us from Fascism which was a backlash to the threat of communism. So, if in 1939, Italy, Russia, and Germany are under democratic governments or at least non fascist ones, what happens to Japan? I don't think they'll be trying to take over Asia if they have no allies elsewhere.
Yes...i'll ask the magic 8-ball...will japa commit national suicide even with a storm of butterflies?
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By the time the pact was signed, they were already deep into the Second Sino-Japanese War. However, if you butterfly away WWII, maybe Japan changes its calculations about expanding into the UK's southeast Asian colonies, since that would likely draw the UK into the war. It may depend on how they'd get around the oil issue, and whether the US would see a need to embargo. If Japan isn't moving on southeast Asia, and most notably, getting near the Philippines, there's way less of a reason for the US to consider an oil embargo.
 
It's generally accepted that preventing the Bolshevik revolution would also save us from Fascism which was a backlash to the threat of communism. So, if in 1939, Italy, Russia, and Germany are under democratic governments or at least non fascist ones, what happens to Japan? I don't think they'll be trying to take over Asia if they have no allies elsewhere.

No. No Bolshevik revolution still leaves a Russia in chaos, and it throws the Far East out of whack. Japan could get more influence in Mongolia, no Bolshevik Revolution means no chance of the White Army in Mongolia, so instead of turning towards the Russians for protection from China, Outer Mongolia could look towards Japan.

Japan's attempt to take over East Asia was more really nasty mission that saw Japan go from trying to win the war against China and not necessarily conquer them, to trying to cut off their supply lines in Indochina to having to attack the U.S and East Asia or else risk running out of oil in two years. Japan did all of that without having A far enough POD could butterfly that away, not to mention there's no telling how the Taisho period will turn out in this timeline.

China is also going to be suffering from butterflies, at least with its relationship with Russia. The Soviets in OTL continued to use the Chinese Eastern Railway in Manchuria to the same degree the Tsarist government did, that is unfairly in their favor. How this new Russian government will react is another question entirely, if we can even settle on who can feasibly run it in the first place. Another thing is what does China look like without military aid from the White Emigres, or better yet does no Bolshevik revolution drastically impact or prevent the formation of the CCP? If so, China could be in a much stronger position it does not have to worry about the Communist subversion of its territory in Manchuria, Mongolia, or Xinjiang from the Soviets, or agitation from the CCP.
 
Japans leaders saw it as sinking to the status of a client state of the Europeans, & eventually colonial status, or acquiring a empire. After Japan had opened to the world in the mid 19th Century the leaders watched the final race of the Empires nailing down all of Africa and Asia. They also witnessed the slow dismantling of the 19th Century free trade. By the end of the Great war it seemed to be a question of conquer or die.

Japan's attempt to take over East Asia was more really nasty mission that saw Japan go from trying to win the war against China ...

Exactly. China, which the Japanese did not see as a national whole, but as a empire, was also a existential threat. Once the Qing or Manchus were evicted & the republic established it appeared resurgent China night threaten Japan in a few decades. One of the core arguments for a war with China was preemptive. That is strike while China was still relatively weak & force a favorable situation there while still possible. Recognition of Manchuria as under Japans control would be one basic item on the list.

By the time the pact was signed, they were already deep into the Second Sino-Japanese War. ...

...and Germany had a deep relationship with the KMT government, that extended far back int the pre nazi era. No Triparte Pact means German officers remain with the KMT armies.

The divergence is likely to come circa 1938 when the 'China Incident' threatens the European and US interests (cash flow) from Asia. Without the distraction of a resurgent Germany or Communist Soviet Union the French and British may exert themselves to arm twist a peace between the KMT & Japan. The US may or may not join them. So perhaps trade sanctions and banking freezes force Japan to make peace with China. Or the leaders try to 'Port Arthur' their tormentors and force them to back off. The alternative is the Europeans dither and the China Incident festers on to 1942 or 43.
 
It was the Depression that served to give the militarists their opportunity to strangle Japan's fledgling democracy. Would White Russia, at least partially recovered by the 30s and allied to France, the UK, or both stand as a counterweight to Japan's schemes in Manchuria especially without the distractions of fascist Europe? Weimar Germany would definitely stand by China and find a customer for their military expertise and gear (China and Germany helping each other economically during the Depression). Maybe these democracies work together to survive the Depression (Russia wouldn't be insulated from the chaos like the Soviets were) and stop the rise of the militarists in Japan. Hell, a longshot is Russia remains weak, Japan keeps the Far East as a protectorate/territory/puppet and the economics of that preserves Japan.
 

Manman

Banned
I think Japan would be better off in the east. While a white Russia would seem strong it would most likely fall to war lords and other nastiness. So japan would be allied with which ever power controls the Russian east and wouldn't have to worry from an attack from the north.

Apart from that Russia might become hostile and become an enemy of everyone with Japan allying with the other power to keep it in check.
 
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