I would imagine a 1917 German victory scenario where she avoids unrestricted submarine warfare, probably is due to the Allies having financial constraints, especially Russia without American loans, basically all the Allies can do is hold the lines after a last April 1917 offensive on the western front. There just wont be the supply to do any more offensives. And Germany will be able to build to strike somewhere. A peace conference is agreed to, Americans help mediate. The Germans don't know the full extent of Allied weakness so agree to easy terms (the Blockade is starting to hurt too).
Germany is awarded the Belgian Congo and Portuguese Angola. Germany pays compensation to Belgium for private party damages. Austria is in occupation of Serbia for two years. Turkey receives Kars and Batum from Russia, (but loses Southern Iraq to Britain). Bulgaria receives southern Dobruja from Rommania, but otherwise back to prewar boundaries. Germany gets her seized merchants returned. Germany occupies the Briery and Lonwy basin and Poland for two years or until her colonies are reoccupied (Allied officers are held until then as well, enlisted POWs returned immediately, all Central powers POWs returned immediately including officers, a symbolic thing really which makes clear that Germany "won" important for the Kaiser politically).
Japan alone disagrees with this and continues at war with Germany.
Its expected that Germany gets her colonies back. Her fleet is large including the very new, Baden, Bayern and Hindenburg, plus some big rangy subs, plus Tirpitz is very eager to have the Navy do some great victory. Japan seems like a good opportunity. The Germans gather up a fleet of Kaisers, Konigs and the 2 Badens and all the BCs and modern light cruisers and the newest destroyers and submarines along with returned liners loaded up with soldiers and make a great show of reoccupying the colonies (Spain helps with supplies and basing for the African reoccupation, along with the Dutch). Dutch help and ports is instrumental in moving the German Fleet from East Africa straight to Rabaul where the Germans prepare for the reconquest of their Pacific islands starting with the Marshals.
Germany is a great Power. With industry and resources far greater than Japan. Japan gained respect for the Germans ability to do war in the siege of Tsingtao. The long game doesn't look good for Japan even if she can win a fleet victory. Britain and USA are concerned about this German fleet in the Pacific. France wants the Germans out of her country. So does Russia, Belgium wants money. Pressure for a deal increases from everybody, Japan returns the colonies and Tsingtao for 20 million marks (about the 17 million German pad Spain for the islands in 1898 plus 3 mil for Tsingtao).