Japan in a Central Powers victory scenario

So let's say that the Central Powers win the war without the USA getting involved. This can be due to winning before April 1917, or due to Wilson never declaring war. Really, the specific PoD isn't important. However, Japan still joins the Allies, and is as a consequence on the losing side. What happens next, both in the peace treaty, interwar period, and WWII?

Thoughts?
 
Germany would have to haul her navy around to the Pacific to reclaim some dubious value colonies. It would take some time to pull this off. I bet a deal is reached where Japan pays Germany for the colonies.
 
Germany would have to haul her navy around to the Pacific to reclaim some dubious value colonies. It would take some time to pull this off. I bet a deal is reached where Japan pays Germany for the colonies.

If Germany wins why not just have them let Japan keep the ones they took and have Germany take Britain's, France's, or even the Philippines from the US?. Could they make a grab for British or French Africa? There are much better islands and places to take!!
 
Germany has no ability to impose its will upon Japan, if can only press London, or Washington if they are mediating, and let them persuade Toyko. So I would argue Germany gets what Japan is willing to give or it is pressed to surrender.

That said, the Army historically was German leaning along with some elites, they appear vindicated. We might see seeds for realignment but returning Tsingtao must taste bitter. Might it sour relations with London or Washington? That would be my seeds of doubt.

The value of Tsingtao is not really as a naval bass but as a commercial center, along with the rest Germany saw stolen in China has millions of Mark's in value now and for future trade, trade Germany is desperate to rebuild. Beyond pride or place Germany is salvaging her commercial web, and so I think she certainly seeks at least restitution if not restoration.

Germany can stride back to exploiting China and find Japan willing to be courted, it might get half measures or pushed out, opening doors to support Chinese nationalism, befriend the Open Door and America, the possibility is dependent on how much she gets or how little.
 
Not really much Germany can do other than try to pressure France and Britain to lean on Japan, but their ability to do so after a losing war is likely negligible. Maybe Germany is able to get a bit more in other places but those islands and Tsingtao are gone for good. What might be interesting would be if Germany tries to reimpose themselves in the region after they stabilize a bit. I think it might be an interesting point of tension between the two countries going forward, Japan as really the only Ally that could claim to have gotten the better of Germany.
 
I would imagine a 1917 German victory scenario where she avoids unrestricted submarine warfare, probably is due to the Allies having financial constraints, especially Russia without American loans, basically all the Allies can do is hold the lines after a last April 1917 offensive on the western front. There just wont be the supply to do any more offensives. And Germany will be able to build to strike somewhere. A peace conference is agreed to, Americans help mediate. The Germans don't know the full extent of Allied weakness so agree to easy terms (the Blockade is starting to hurt too).

Germany is awarded the Belgian Congo and Portuguese Angola. Germany pays compensation to Belgium for private party damages. Austria is in occupation of Serbia for two years. Turkey receives Kars and Batum from Russia, (but loses Southern Iraq to Britain). Bulgaria receives southern Dobruja from Rommania, but otherwise back to prewar boundaries. Germany gets her seized merchants returned. Germany occupies the Briery and Lonwy basin and Poland for two years or until her colonies are reoccupied (Allied officers are held until then as well, enlisted POWs returned immediately, all Central powers POWs returned immediately including officers, a symbolic thing really which makes clear that Germany "won" important for the Kaiser politically).

Japan alone disagrees with this and continues at war with Germany.

Its expected that Germany gets her colonies back. Her fleet is large including the very new, Baden, Bayern and Hindenburg, plus some big rangy subs, plus Tirpitz is very eager to have the Navy do some great victory. Japan seems like a good opportunity. The Germans gather up a fleet of Kaisers, Konigs and the 2 Badens and all the BCs and modern light cruisers and the newest destroyers and submarines along with returned liners loaded up with soldiers and make a great show of reoccupying the colonies (Spain helps with supplies and basing for the African reoccupation, along with the Dutch). Dutch help and ports is instrumental in moving the German Fleet from East Africa straight to Rabaul where the Germans prepare for the reconquest of their Pacific islands starting with the Marshals.

Germany is a great Power. With industry and resources far greater than Japan. Japan gained respect for the Germans ability to do war in the siege of Tsingtao. The long game doesn't look good for Japan even if she can win a fleet victory. Britain and USA are concerned about this German fleet in the Pacific. France wants the Germans out of her country. So does Russia, Belgium wants money. Pressure for a deal increases from everybody, Japan returns the colonies and Tsingtao for 20 million marks (about the 17 million German pad Spain for the islands in 1898 plus 3 mil for Tsingtao).
 
Japan alone disagrees with this and continues at war with Germany.

I politely disagree with you on this. While I agree with what you laid out I don't think it goes that far because of Japan.

I view the Japanese entry into WWI as opportunistic at best. They saw a golden opportunity to grab all the German possessions while siding with the biggest Naval power of Europe. That did two things; it put them on the side of a fellow island faring nation with similar fundamental economic and logistical issues which may allow them to learn some things from the UK. It also allowed them to take over control of the Pacific since their 'partner' (the UK) needed to pull back assets to the European theater. This allows them a much freer control of much of the Western Pacific and South China Sea area with their navy.

At the conclusion of the war, if Germany is the winner, they quickly negotiate a settlement (probably keeping all the island colonies) for economic conditions with Germany. Japan will follow the winner and therefore will buy licenses to manufacture military equipment from Germany and in general there will be a large bond between the two. Japan will buy tooling and set up much manufacturing to model what Germany was doing. Germany will make out economically and Japan will pattern their Army on the German model, all the way to having divisions equipped identically.
 
I politely disagree with you on this. While I agree with what you laid out I don't think it goes that far because of Japan.

I view the Japanese entry into WWI as opportunistic at best. They saw a golden opportunity to grab all the German possessions while siding with the biggest Naval power of Europe. That did two things; it put them on the side of a fellow island faring nation with similar fundamental economic and logistical issues which may allow them to learn some things from the UK. It also allowed them to take over control of the Pacific since their 'partner' (the UK) needed to pull back assets to the European theater. This allows them a much freer control of much of the Western Pacific and South China Sea area with their navy.

At the conclusion of the war, if Germany is the winner, they quickly negotiate a settlement (probably keeping all the island colonies) for economic conditions with Germany. Japan will follow the winner and therefore will buy licenses to manufacture military equipment from Germany and in general there will be a large bond between the two. Japan will buy tooling and set up much manufacturing to model what Germany was doing. Germany will make out economically and Japan will pattern their Army on the German model, all the way to having divisions equipped identically.

I agree, that is how it probably would go down. I was trying to come up with some scenario where a interesting German - Japanese conflict would go down. i.e. A compromise peace where German gains were colonial, but not quite a big enough victory where there would be doubt if it was worth it. So so further victory was needed for political reasons. Along with German naval leadership wanting to prove the Navy's worth. So that Germany wouldn't willing to compromise.

In reality if someone was willing to pay cash for an island chain the Carolines after a long and expensive war. I would think Germany would jump at the offer.
 
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