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Japan was defeated in WWII because it could never defeat the USA for obvious reasons. Japan was doomed the minute it attacked the USA first.

This led me to thinking, what if Japan simply goes all out to avoid war with the USA? Obviously this means no attack on Pearl Harbor and no conquest of American territory such as Philipines, etc. It probably also means not joining the Axis as well.

Basically Japan makes the calculation that it will wage wars of conquest in Asia but do its utmost to avoid war with the USA. The thinking is that the USA isn't going to declare war on Japan over its conquests because Americans just aren't going to be motivated enough for those reasons alone. Americans aren't going to be sacrificing themselves to "save Asia", a place most Americans don't know and don't care about.

I think that if Japan used this strategy, it would have a chance of success. Without having to devote resources to fighting the USA, it can instead focus all of its resources towards Asian conquests and consolidation gains. Because in the final analysis, Americans aren't going to be signing up in droves to fight Japan if Japan never attacks the USA. FDR isn't going to be able to declare war on Japan if it does not provide enough of a causus belli and Asian conquests alone are insufficient.
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