Japan goes all out to avoid war with USA while building its empire

They might be able to get away with seizing the colonies of European countries under nazi occupation. Just say you were doing that to prevent German influence in Asia continue selling those resources to the allies so they won't complain.

This, the occupation of French Indochina specifically, was what triggered the embargoes and more important the banking sanctions by the US and Britain. Until that the US was just hoping the whole China Japan thing would go away. The nazis in Europe were far greater problem in the US view. But the FIC occupation took things to a far greater level.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Such an early PoD will probably do away with the whole Manchuria business.
Maybe. It was a good opportunity. It was just done in the worst way for govt stability. It was basically outside of Chinese government control. And saying they're doing it for the manchu people or whatever was actually pretty good PR wise
 
This, the occupation of French Indochina specifically, was what triggered the embargoes and more important the banking sanctions by the US and Britain. Until that the US was just hoping the whole China Japan thing would go away. The nazis in Europe were far greater problem in the US view. But the FIC occupation took things to a far greater level.
If they were a little more diplomatic about it and were willing to continue to supply the allies with the resources they wanted , Japan might have been able to get away with it.
Especially if they offered to drop out of the Axis
 
If they were a little more diplomatic about it and were willing to continue to supply the allies with the resources they wanted , Japan might have been able to get away with it.
Especially if they offered to drop out of the Axis

I've often proposed that scenario myself. Unfortunately Japan's leaders no longer saw any future in Brit or US alliances.
 
I've often proposed that scenario myself. Unfortunately Japan's leaders no longer saw any future in Brit or US alliances.
Rather sad because with everyone concerned about Germany they had a lot of leeway for a deal, because all the powers had more important things than Japan to deal with.
 
I've often proposed that scenario myself. Unfortunately Japan's leaders no longer saw any future in Brit or US alliances.

Many millions of lives could have been saved if European powers were less staunchly opposed to symbolic gestures like the "racial equality clause" at Versailles. I truly think that if Japan had felt accepted as one of the great powers, it would have continued the kind of relatively peaceful horse-trading from the era of Shidehara diplomacy.
 
Many millions of lives could have been saved if European powers were less staunchly opposed to symbolic gestures like the "racial equality clause" at Versailles. I truly think that if Japan had felt accepted as one of the great powers, it would have continued the kind of relatively peaceful horse-trading from the era of Shidehara diplomacy.

You would need another president than Wilson to pull that off. He was the most racist president of the 20th century!
 
I have heard it said in other threads about Versailles that Australia would resist mightily as well.

TBF, who the hell cares what Australia thinks? Their opinion matters only marginally more then Germany in the whole affair.
 
TBF, who the hell cares what Australia thinks? Their opinion matters only marginally more then Germany in the whole affair.

Britain? They're not going to want to snub their Dominion who just sacrificed so many young men and so much money for the sake of a peripheral state who, let's be honest, all of them actually did think was peopled by inferior peoples.
 
Many millions of lives could have been saved if European powers were less staunchly opposed to symbolic gestures like the "racial equality clause" at Versailles. I truly think that if Japan had felt accepted as one of the great powers, it would have continued the kind of relatively peaceful horse-trading from the era of Shidehara diplomacy.

Japan would never have been accepted as a 'Great Power' in 1919, because it was not. Then it compromised 5% or less of the global economy or war making capacity (in 1941 it had about 7%). It was also justifiably considered a British client state.
 
Japan would never have been accepted as a 'Great Power' in 1919, because it was not. Then it compromised 5% or less of the global economy or war making capacity (in 1941 it had about 7%). It was also justifiably considered a British client state.

Then accepted as not untermensch. The point is that the Japanese were acutely aware that Europeans regarded them as half civilized aberrations. They had beaten a major European power in a short, decisive war, achieved industrialization to a level no non western nation had yet achieved, and the Europeans wouldn't even acknowledge them as peers. The feeling of that humiliation was a large part of the conception of the East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere.
 
Even without the racial aspect the Japanese were boxed in at the second tier. The colonial land grab was over & their were not more 'uncivilized' nations remaining to colonize. Everything either had a flag stuck in it, or was inside someones 'sphere of interest'. The British Free Trade policies were falling away in the face of growing imperial mercantile systems, tariffs, ect... China represented a enormous market potential, but a century plus of trade Concession treaties made it difficult for new coming Japanese business to find market share. That Chinas economy was in chaos during the Warlord era and later made it even more difficult. There was also the problem of dependance on Europe, specifically Londons centralized banking, for capitol. That more than anything else made Japan (like many others) a client state of Britain. Defacto members of the empire, even if not directly controlled politically. The Zaibatsu, who were the real rulers of Japan were perfectly aware of all this & modern Japans history is in large part the search for a solution to enabling the ambitions of the Zaibatsu. The rise of the New York banking center was a false hope as dependance on the US for capitol only changed the vulnerability from one major power to another. This was in part behind the tension between the US and Japan from the end of the Russo Japanese War and on into the 1920 & eventually to 1941. The asset freeze was one of the two really devastating parts in the 1941 Embargo Acts. That the loss to the international banking system, and the ability to plan and draw more short and long term loans was for Japans economy every bit as bad as probable losses in a war. Probablly worse in the longer run.

A somewhat similar problem existed for Germany, particularly post 1919. Boxed in by mature empires and a congealing trade/capitol flow a economic and or political domination of the Russian empires territories looked to many Germans like the long term solution. In the 1920s it was the US stepping in twice with the Young and Dawes plans for keeping Germany afloat with new loan structures from the US. The NSDAP with its expansionist policies looked like a solution to many German businessmen.
 
Japan was defeated in WWII because it could never defeat the USA for obvious reasons. Japan was doomed the minute it attacked the USA first.

This led me to thinking, what if Japan simply goes all out to avoid war with the USA? Obviously this means no attack on Pearl Harbor and no conquest of American territory such as Philipines, etc. It probably also means not joining the Axis as well.

Basically Japan makes the calculation that it will wage wars of conquest in Asia but do its utmost to avoid war with the USA. The thinking is that the USA isn't going to declare war on Japan over its conquests because Americans just aren't going to be motivated enough for those reasons alone. Americans aren't going to be sacrificing themselves to "save Asia", a place most Americans don't know and don't care about.

I think that if Japan used this strategy, it would have a chance of success. Without having to devote resources to fighting the USA, it can instead focus all of its resources towards Asian conquests and consolidation gains. Because in the final analysis, Americans aren't going to be signing up in droves to fight Japan if Japan never attacks the USA. FDR isn't going to be able to declare war on Japan if it does not provide enough of a causus belli and Asian conquests alone are insufficient.

Have key figures during the Taisho period successfully work to keep the military in check and maintain Japanese democracy, maybe have fortunate early deaths of key figures in the military take over, have Emperor Showa NOT passively sit back and let it happen. Still invade Manchuria, you can invade China but don't have super brutality, don't attempt to seize French Indochina, in fact, get good PR by publicly declaring that if Indochina goes Vichy Japan would help the UK overthrow them and reestablish French rule. Don't aggress against the Soviets at all, reduce the navy so as to not seem intimidating to the US or UK, increase the army to maintain a good advance into China, establish a democratic government along the coast that is friendly to Japan and once it has mustered forces pull out of China and supply them with weapons and resources to them to help them defeat the Communists and Nationalists. Now you have a semi-puppet government in China that is reliant on you to keep the various regions together, an integrated Manchuria, Korea, Formosa, and Pacific islands and focus on developing the Japanese economy and industries, continue research into synthetic oil and rubber to ease off Western imports. When the Cold War begins side with the US against an even weaker Communist Bloc and once they collapse, bam! You get the US hyperpower age, a greater Japan with a loyal regime in China and lack of controversy as no Nanjing or any other atrocities. This is all wank however
 
The-B-17-problem.png


The Japanese were not stupid at the tactical level. Put 1000 B-17s into the Philippines and the Southern Resources Area becomes unobtainable. The Japanese cannot ALLOW the US to reach their own March 1942 war kickoff dates. The Japanese have to attack first or the Americans will crush them without too much trouble. The Japanese have to move everything by sea.
 
Top