Japan First

fscott said:
Even if they did not stop bombing the damage done would be greatly reduced. The bombing would stop in late 1943 early 1944 when the jet fighters came on line.
And what leads you to believe, given less bombing, the Germans even feel the need for jets?

OTOH, with fewer U.S. aircraft overhead, the Brits might (just) change priorities...& that offers a chance of shutting German production entirely, jets or no jets.:rolleyes:
 
No D-Day at that time would not have Stalin in Paris.

Correct, mainly because the collapse of German resistance once the Soviets take Berlin will allow the British to simply walk back onto the continent. Red Army tanks cooling their tracks in the Rhine is more feasible.

Stalin was in desperate need of a second front, the Soviet forces were stretched big time
By the time the actual second front appeared, the Soviets had already shredded much of the Wehrmacht and were poised to steamroll the Germans out of the Soviet Union in a series of some of the most sophisticated and powerful ground offensives the world has ever seen.

If one expands their definition of "the Second Front" to include the Sicilian-Italian invasions then these too occurred at a time when the Soviets had already gained the upper hand over the Germans. Indeed, it likely saved the Germans from an even worse defeat at Kursk then IOTL as Hitler's cancellation of Citadel allowed Manstein's forces to shift over to the defensive and thereby prevent it from getting encircled by the imminent Soviet counteroffensive.

If one expand their definition of the "the Second Front" even further to include the North African campaign, then the fact there is that the forces of the Afrika Corps involved were so miniscule compared to the Eastern Front as to be irrelevant. Furthermore, by the time the WAllies managed to halt the German advance at El-Alamein the Soviets had already stabilized the Eastern Front, the correlation of forces had tilted in their favor, and they were preparing to use that advantage to launch a war-turning offensive.

The Red Army was not remotely overstretched after the summer of 1942 and the reasons for this do not lay with anything the WAllies did.

and the heavy bombing of Germany(supplies, oil) by Allied forces helped a great deal and without it their advanced will be greatly reduced.
Not at all. Strategic bombing did not have the desired effect upon German industrial production until the latter-half of 1944. By that point, the German economy was already collapsing from the battlefield defeats and loss of territory. Really, the only achievement of the strategic bombing campaign in 1944 was to draw the Luftwaffe into a battle of attrition... something that the Soviets in the East and the WAllies in the Mediterranean also managed to do at the same time via their tactical air campaigns.

IIRC, despite the Germany first policy the Americans were putting more into the war with Japan until Operation Overlord.

Are you sure? What about the whole 85/15 and 70/30 debate?

My read of this has been that the US IOTL was putting more into the Pacific Campaign then it had agreed too, but not so much that one could say it did not regard Germany as the greater priority.
 
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I should, perhaps, have been clearer: I meant "use", not "building". That, per Alperowitz, was a joint decision by Byrnes & Truman.

The decision to whether or not to use the Bomb, and HOW, was chaired by Byrnes. But he wasn't the Lord & Master of that committee, just one strong voice among many. Numerous people made suggestions, each in turn dismissed as unworkable or liable to boomerang on the Allies.

Frex, telling the Japanese the target after expending the Tall Boy on a remote Japanese island under full Japanese view. Then tell them to surrender, and if they didn't the Allies would hit a specific city at a specific time and date. The realization came to the committee (and I will say it was Byrnes who said this) that if they did so, the Japanese would have their entire remaing air forces, including suicide attackers, waiting for the Silverplate bomber. And they'd evacuate the city, replacing the population with PoWs.

I REALLY hate to invoke the words of America's Worst President Ever (minus Buchanan), but it was TRUMAN who was "The Decider". The fact that Byrnes felt so strongly that HE should have had Truman's job as POTUS notwithstanding.:p

Which explains why that notorious dog, the P-38, had two of them.:rolleyes:

It was a dog, over Europe. In the Pacific, that was another matter. At the latitudes and altitudes it operated in against Japan it represented the first true answer to the Zero, provided the USAAC pilots weren't too hotshot to ignore their rules of tactical engagement (bounce 'em from above, blast 'em, don't dogfight, and run like hell).

Tell you what: We both have Skippy the Alien Space Bat do his thing. We are both now trained and qualified P-38 fighter pilots, and its WWII. One of us has to go to Europe, the other the Pacific. Which one of us goes to Europe? Hint: It ain't me!
 
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usertron2020 said:
it was TRUMAN who was "The Decider".
True. However, & Alperowitz points this out, Truman felt a deep debt to Byrnes. Not to mention, at this time, he was only a few days in the Big Chair, so (Alperowitz argues, & I agree) more susceptible of influence by Byrnes than he might seem (or be later).
usertron2020 said:
It was a dog, over Europe. In the Pacific, that was another matter.
How much of that was a product of the environment, & not the engines? Or aircrew training? I think I'd take the P-38 over anything in ETO (& maybe over the F4U, too).
 
Correct, mainly because the collapse of German resistance once the Soviets take Berlin will allow the British to simply walk back onto the continent. Red Army tanks cooling their tracks in the Rhine is more feasible.

By the time the actual second front appeared, the Soviets had already shredded much of the Wehrmacht and were poised to steamroll the Germans out of the Soviet Union in a series of some of the most sophisticated and powerful ground offensives the world has ever seen.

If one expands their definition of "the Second Front" to include the Sicilian-Italian invasions then these too occurred at a time when the Soviets had already gained the upper hand over the Germans. Indeed, it likely saved the Germans from an even worse defeat at Kursk then IOTL as Hitler's cancellation of Citadel allowed Manstein's forces to shift over to the defensive and thereby prevent it from getting encircled by the imminent Soviet counteroffensive.

If one expand their definition of the "the Second Front" even further to include the North African campaign, then the fact there is that the forces of the Afrika Corps involved were so miniscule compared to the Eastern Front as to be irrelevant. Furthermore, by the time the WAllies managed to halt the German advance at El-Alamein the Soviets had already stabilized the Eastern Front, the correlation of forces had tilted in their favor, and they were preparing to use that advantage to launch a war-turning offensive.

The Red Army was not remotely overstretched after the summer of 1942 and the reasons for this do not lay with anything the WAllies did.

Not at all. Strategic bombing did not have the desired effect upon German industrial production until the latter-half of 1944. By that point, the German economy was already collapsing from the battlefield defeats and loss of territory. Really, the only achievement of the strategic bombing campaign in 1944 was to draw the Luftwaffe into a battle of attrition... something that the Soviets in the East and the WAllies in the Mediterranean also managed to do at the same time via their tactical air campaigns.

Well i was kinda talking about 1943-1944, everything happening after landing in Italy. Its true the Soviet Army was not all that stretched by 1943, but later on they were more and more in need of relieve in any way, mainly because the Wehrmacht just kept on fighting them instead of collapsing. Also they were in a race towards Berlin, making them take more risks. If not, like in TTL they would be slower and after Berlin not able to normally advance rapidly towards Paris.

I was under the impression though that the strategic bombing of the Romanian oil did cripple the German Army near the point of collapse and that it helped both fronts greatly.
 
True. However, & Alperowitz points this out, Truman felt a deep debt to Byrnes. Not to mention, at this time, he was only a few days in the Big Chair, so (Alperowitz argues, & I agree) more susceptible of influence by Byrnes than he might seem (or be later).

How much of that was a product of the environment, & not the engines? Or aircrew training? I think I'd take the P-38 over anything in ETO (& maybe over the F4U, too).

And we'd both prefer the F-22 naturally.:p But I was referring to the war as a whole. AISI, the engines themselves did not deal well with the demands of Europe, against opponents who could match the P-38 in terms of speed and to lesser degrees firepower, armor, acceleration, and ceiling.

If you are going to face the Japanese in a P-38, you better do so on the attack and coming in at (very) high altitude. That was the P-38's thing, and as I said, the Lightening excelled at that. The first fighter the Japanese faced that forced them to concede the initiative to the enemy. With its airframe, speed, and ceiling, it could out-climb, out-dive, outrun and out-distance any Zero.

That said, whether you can pick another fighter depends on your service. Hellcats and Corsairs for the Navy, Corsairs for the USMC, and in order of service introduction (IIRC) the P-40, P-39, P-38, and P-51. Pretty sure the P-47 didn't see service against Japan.

If I'm in the USAAC in the Pacific, I would HAVE to pick the P-38 until the P-51 arrived late war. But the thought of flying escort for all those hours in a little single seater with no toilet...:eek:
 
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usertron2020 said:
And we'd both prefer the F-22 naturally.:p
Well... I think the F-22 is overpriced & unnecessary, but that's another thread.:p
I was referring to the war as a whole. AISI, the engines themselves did not deal well with the demands of Europe, against opponents who could match the P-38 in terms of speed and to lesser degrees firepower, armor, speed, and ceiling.
I'll agree there were issues. It's been too long since I've read anything much on the P-38 to say how much of that was in the maintenance, the non-turbo Brit 322s, bad tactics, lack of ability to "zoom & boom" (no dive flaps), & the Germans (who do get a vote:p). That being the case, I'll concede.
usertron2020 said:
If you are going to face the Japanese in a P-38, you better do so on the attack and coming in at (very) high altitude. That was the P-38's thing, and as I said, the Lightening excelled at that. The first fighter the Japanese faced that forced them to concede the initiative to the enemy. With its ceiling, airframe, speed, and ceiling, it could out-climb, out-dive, outrun and out-distance any Zero.
It's this reputation, I think, that so colors my view, even to the point I'll overlook a less than stellar record in ETO.
usertron2020 said:
Pretty sure the P-47 didn't see service against Japan.
I seem to recall late Ns did. I wouldn't swear on it.
usertron2020 said:
If I'm in the USAAC in the Pacific, I would HAVE to pick the P-38 until the P-51 arrived late war. But the thought of flying escort for all those hours in a little single seater with no toilet...:eek:
:eek: I wouldn't trade to the P-51, pretty as she is. And of the things AAF should have specified & Lockheed installed, heater & variety of toilet were the top of the list.:p
 
And what leads you to believe, given less bombing, the Germans even feel the need for jets?

OTOH, with fewer U.S. aircraft overhead, the Brits might (just) change priorities...& that offers a chance of shutting German production entirely, jets or no jets.:rolleyes:

The Germans like high tech toys, V1, V2 and even with strategic bombing and the war being lost they were building jets. One of 2 things would happen The British bombers would either carpet bomb fly during the day neither one a good option. If Britain went to fighters the jet fighters could effectively escorted the few bombers Germany had or maybe Germany would switch to building bombers after they stocked up on fighters. With the British and the US in ITOL could not cease all air craft manufacturing how could Britain alone. In a way this is at the edge of belonging here Why did the British get to do the night time safer bombing and the US the daytime more risky bomb.
 
Well i was kinda talking about 1943-1944, everything happening after landing in Italy. Its true the Soviet Army was not all that stretched by 1943, but later on they were more and more in need of relieve in any way, mainly because the Wehrmacht just kept on fighting them instead of collapsing.

Unfortunately, none of what actually happened in 1943-1944 actually supports this. Was more powerful by June 1944 then they had been a year earlier and the Ostheer was much weaker. Stalin himself realized this, observing in after returning the Teheran conference: "Roosevelt has given his word that extensive action will be mounted in France in 1944. I believe that he will keep his word. But even if he does not, our own forces are sufficient to complete the rout of Nazi Germany."

Also they were in a race towards Berlin, making them take more risks. If not, like in TTL they would be slower and after Berlin not able to normally advance rapidly towards Paris
Actually they could advance rapidly towards Paris, although they would never reach it before the British. German resistance is guaranteed to collapse once Berlin falls and this goes for the Eastern Front as much for

I was under the impression though that the strategic bombing of the Romanian oil did cripple the German Army near the point of collapse and that it helped both fronts greatly.
The European Axis's oil production rose steadily all the way into July 1944. Then Romania surrendered to the Soviets and the US launched their first truly focused and sustained oil bombing campaign against German synthetic industry at which point production steadily collapsed. However because this happened only after the Reich was quite transparently already doomed to defeat, its main effect was to slightly speed up the end of the war rather then to ensure the outcome.
 
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