Japan doesn't surrender. What happens to the Japanese forces in Asia/the Pacific?

Wendigo

Banned
Let's say the Emperor is overthrown in August 1945 and Japan doesn't surrender.

What happens to the millions of Japanese soldiers who were located throughout Asia and the Pacific?

How long would it have taken for those Japanese forces located on the Asian mainland to be defeated by the Allies?

How difficult would it have been?

How many casualties would there have been on both the Japanese and American/British/Soviet militaries?

How well supplied/prepared/trained were the Japanese troops located in China and the rest of the occupied Asian territory?

From BobTheBarbarian:
The Japanese military had 7,889,100 total personnel, of whom 5,472,400 were in the Army and 2,416,700 were in the Navy. Strength on the Home Islands was 4,335,500, of whom 2,372,700 were Army and 1,962,800 were Navy. The Japanese Army had between 154 and 173 active divisions (depending on the source), 136 brigades, and innumerable smaller units. Of this total, 59 divisions, 36 brigades, and 45 regiments were stationed in the Home Islands. The breakdown of Japanese personnel by theater is as follows:
Mainland Japan: 4,335,500

Bonin Islands: 23,600 (15,000 Army and 8,600 Navy)

Okinawa (Ryukyu) Islands: 52,100 (40,900 Army and 11,200 Navy)

Taiwan (Formosa): 190,500 (128,100 Army and 62,400 Navy)

Korea: 335,900 (294,200 Army and 41,700 Navy)

Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands: 91,000 (88,000 Army and 3,000 Navy)

Manchuria: 665,500 (664,000 Army and 1,500 Navy)

China Proper: 1,124,900 (1,055,700 Army and 62,900 Navy)

Central Pacific Ocean Islands: 106,900 (48,600 Army and 58,300 Navy)

Philippines: 127,200 (97,300 Army and 29,900 Navy)

French Indochina: 98,200 (90,400 Army and 7,800 Navy)

Thailand: 107,500 (106,000 Army and 1,500 Navy)

Burma and India: 71,500 (70,400 Army and 1,100 Navy)

Malaya and Singapore: 134,700 (84,800 Army and 49,900 Navy)

New Guinea: 33,800 (30,200 Army and 3,600 Navy)

Other: 390,300 (286,100 Army and 104,200 Navy)
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The ones in Manchuria and mainland China get mopped up by late 1945 or so. Ditto in Korea. And the British and Commonwealth forces, per their original plan, would move in and liberate Malaya and Singapore. And the remnants of Yamashita's forces in the Philippines would also be mopped up. This would leave Japanese forces in Indochina, the East Indies (minus Borneo), the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Hainan, Formosa, their isolated Pacific bases and the Home Islands.

Decisive Darkness explores this scenario in detail.
 
I'd assume you know of the Decisive Darkness timeline here? It's a pretty good though very grimdark analysis of things.

But really, the Japanese would outstay their welcome amongst all their Asian "allies", and local nationalists like in Indonesia and Vietnam would be glad to help mop them up. The rest would be defeated if they weren't already defeated.
 

jahenders

Banned
The ones in Manchuria and mainland China get mopped up by late 1945 or so. Ditto in Korea. And the British and Commonwealth forces, per their original plan, would move in and liberate Malaya and Singapore. And the remnants of Yamashita's forces in the Philippines would also be mopped up. This would leave Japanese forces in Indochina, the East Indies (minus Borneo), the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Hainan, Formosa, their isolated Pacific bases and the Home Islands.

That sounds about right. The ones in Manchuria and China either get killed or wind up in gulags. Some in isolated areas elsewhere starve. Some might 'go native' while others might try to set up some independent warlord-dom.
 
For Decisive Darkness and through permission from The Red, I used an OTL POD where the Japanese governor-general made an agreement with the leading Korean independence fighter for peaceful exit of Japanese military and civilian personnel. The problem arises over whether his word has jurisdiction over the military, and to what extent it does. My guess at the time was that it'll probably allow most forces south of the 39th parallel surrender, but the north will continue to fight - against the Soviets, mostly.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
There would be a lot of starvation. Allied efforts at isolating and stranding Japanese forces from supply was very successful OTL as it was, and this would not change as time went on.

The troops in the Phillipines, Korea, and Manchuria would be annihilated by Allied attacks likely by the end of 1945, except for some holdouts, who would last as long as they were physically capable of doing. MacArthur's actions post-liberation of Manila were tactically very effective and were killing tens of thousands of Japanese soldiers every single operation. Stranded from supply and organization, these forces were sitting ducks who were being annihilated whenever they came into contact with the US Army, and Filipino Guerillas were clearing much of Luzon on their own. The outer islands would fall quickly as well. Keep in mind that the Japanese in the Phillipines, after the failures at Leyte and Luzon, did not continue the strategically wise hole up in the mountains and rain down artillery defense that worked well, but rather regressed back to the ineffective banzai charges. June and July of 1945 saw lots of this all around the Phillipines.
As for Korea and Manchuria, the Soviet Steamroller was not going to be stopped by the doctrinally backwards Japanese forces there. The Soviets could have been in Pusan relatively quickly and crushed all in its way.
 

Wendigo

Banned
There would be a lot of starvation. Allied efforts at isolating and stranding Japanese forces from supply was very successful OTL as it was, and this would not change as time went on.

The troops in the Phillipines, Korea, and Manchuria would be annihilated by Allied attacks likely by the end of 1945, except for some holdouts, who would last as long as they were physically capable of doing. MacArthur's actions post-liberation of Manila were tactically very effective and were killing tens of thousands of Japanese soldiers every single operation. Stranded from supply and organization, these forces were sitting ducks who were being annihilated whenever they came into contact with the US Army, and Filipino Guerillas were clearing much of Luzon on their own. The outer islands would fall quickly as well. Keep in mind that the Japanese in the Phillipines, after the failures at Leyte and Luzon, did not continue the strategically wise hole up in the mountains and rain down artillery defense that worked well, but rather regressed back to the ineffective banzai charges. June and July of 1945 saw lots of this all around the Phillipines.
As for Korea and Manchuria, the Soviet Steamroller was not going to be stopped by the doctrinally backwards Japanese forces there. The Soviets could have been in Pusan relatively quickly and crushed all in its way.

What about the 1 million+ IJA/IJN soldiers in China?
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
What about the 1 million+ IJA/IJN soldiers in China?
The IJA in China was much more able to sustain itself than anywhere else, mostly because they could steal and enslave themselves out of logistical problems. However, without chances for reinforcement, and the continued logistical support for the Chinese by the Allies, they were going to continue to lose ground. If hostilities elsewhere do not cease, I think a Russian Army in China might help finish the job.

The British were going to obliterate the IJA in Southeast Asia, as they were well on their way to taking back Rangoon and driving on Singapore. But China would take significantly longer.
 
Any troops on any small islands (Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc) slowly starve to death until the remaining number of troops can live on the local food supply. All troops everywhere run out of ammunition and spare parts with the timeline depending on both usage and what local stockpiles are like, although by summer 1945 most places haven't gotten any resupply from Japan in a long time. Anything that runs on gasoline/diesel doesn't pretty quickly. When the UK, USA, or the USSR wants someplace they get it with most Japanese dying, potential exceptions being where there is a rough back country they can hide out in. Local partisans become more and more aggressive picking off Japanese. Other than clearing out Sakhalin the Soviets have very limited amphibious assets so getting any more Japanese islands than they did OTL or taking Hokkaido is iffy, although the longer things go on the more possible that becomes.

Overall the vast majority of the 3.5 million or so Japanese outside the home islands will end up dead, and of course Allied attacks of one sort or another (bombing, blockade/starvation, invasion - any or all of them) will combine to do in a good number of Japanese military in the home islands. It would not be unrealistic to project 3-4 million extra war dead as well as a number (relatively small) crippled out of the roughly 8 million military in August 1945. The loss of 3-4 million more men of military age will have a profound effect on Japanese society in many ways (and don't forget the extra civilian deaths but we'll assume those are rough;y 50/50 male/female) in terms of productive workers, potential husbands/father, etc.

Of course a longer war means more Allied casualties in the military, and the effect on civilian populations in occupied areas will be horrendous. Locals will starve (and succumb to illness due to malnutrition)in huge numbers as the Japanese steal all food, reprisals for partisan activities will get even worse. Locals, not just Allied POWs may be just killed in large numbers as the Japanese retreat in a sort of Gotterdamerung response. Scorched earth tactics will be the norm.
 
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