Japan doesn't surrender what happens on the mainland

trurle

Banned
Say Japan doesn't surrender after the Nukes

What happens in Mainland Asia and the remaining territories occupied by the Japanese

What would be the postwar situation in China between KMT and CCP
IOTL, by estimations of Japanese General Heardquarters, the combat efficiency of Japanese army in China in 1945 was at 30% of levels achieved in 1941. Manpower was sufficient, but combat equipment and most capable officers were severely drained for the protracted Pacific War.
IOTL, by 15th August 1945, Soviet forces have overran the border formations of Japanese army in just 6 days, rendering combat-ineffective about 50% of Japanese units in north-east China, including most well-equipped ones. The rest of Japanese have generally managed to block transport routes and took positions for the defense in depth. My forecast is what Soviets would need 2-3 months to fight their way to south of Korean peninsula and Beijing, at which point some sort of peace treaty (likely conditional surrender of Japan) pressed by startled US is inevitable.
Very likely, additional nuclear bombs will not be available for the US in this time frame until military collapse of Japanese forces in China become obvious, therefore the war on mainland remains the conventional one. Very remote possibility is what some of newly made nuclear bomb would be used against Soviet troops in around October 1945, in the very unlikely case the Soviet leadership will not listen to repeated orders "stop the advance into China, the war is over".

Overall, this scenario is very favorable to the Communist Party of China (CCP).
 
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DougM

Donor
With out the relative “peaceful” surrender you will see long term effects, As the US will get more bitter the longer they resist and you will see less rebuilding and more road blocks being created and in general a much harsher piece. So the built up in the 50s and 60s and the boom in the 70s and 80s will either be delayed or never happen.
 

trurle

Banned
With out the relative “peaceful” surrender you will see long term effects, As the US will get more bitter the longer they resist and you will see less rebuilding and more road blocks being created and in general a much harsher piece. So the built up in the 50s and 60s and the boom in the 70s and 80s will either be delayed or never happen.
This apply only if the fighting will continue until beginning of 1946 or longer, which is unlikely. IOTL, Allies policy toward both Japan and Germany in 1945 was harsh anyway - de-industrialization, dismantling of civilian infrastructure, retribution to government and military elites etc. IOTL, policy shift toward support of both Japan and Germany was effected by need to counter-balance Soviet Union, which will be likely realized in this scenario even faster than IOTL.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Say Japan doesn't surrender after the Nukes

What happens in Mainland Asia and the remaining territories occupied by the Japanese

What would be the postwar situation in China between KMT and CCP
We starve them until they give up the US subs had a noose of steel around them
 
The Japanese forces in south-central China had since pulled back to the coast in order to shorten their supply lines and defend against a possible amphibious attack by the US. This voluntary pullback allowed the Chinese-American command to bring up the date of their general offensive ("CARBONADO"), but there hadn't been much major fighting by the time the war ended. Most likely they would have been pocketed around major cities but would have been able to hold out semi-indefinitely until exhausting food and ammunition.

(Map of Japanese dispositions in China, 15 August 1945)
fxt109.jpg

After the USSR's declaration of war, IGHQ ordered the China Expeditionary Army to send 6 divisions and 6 brigades, together with enough ammunition for 6 division-battles northward to reinforce Manchuria. Presumably these would have included the 47th, 110th, 114th, 115th, and 116th Infantry Divisions together with the 3rd Tank Division, but this was preempted by the surrender of Japan. If the war continued it's uncertain whether or not they would have been able to link up with the main forces retreating toward the Korean border; on the one hand by August 15 Soviet forces were far too overextended to block them, but on the other they themselves were in no shape to deploy so rapidly and would have needed time to consolidate before doing so.

In Manchuria itself the Japanese would have attempted to continue with their strategy of withdrawing to the "Tunghua Redoubt" area (below):

Jnf2RLd.png

Again, given the state of Soviet supply lines and the fact that a large proportion of Japanese forces were already more or less located in this region, it is unlikely that the Red Army could have prevented them from doing so. Combat in this mountainous area would have been slow and costly, similar to the Battle of Luzon - but eventually the Japanese would run out of ammunition. The Kuril islands would have been totally impenetrable for Soviet forces and Sakhalin would have been a bloodbath.

In SE-Asia the British also planned an amphibious invasion of Malaya, Operation ZIPPER, and a ground offensive into Thailand, where the Japanese and Thais still had a large army.
 
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