trurle
Banned
IOTL, by estimations of Japanese General Heardquarters, the combat efficiency of Japanese army in China in 1945 was at 30% of levels achieved in 1941. Manpower was sufficient, but combat equipment and most capable officers were severely drained for the protracted Pacific War.Say Japan doesn't surrender after the Nukes
What happens in Mainland Asia and the remaining territories occupied by the Japanese
What would be the postwar situation in China between KMT and CCP
IOTL, by 15th August 1945, Soviet forces have overran the border formations of Japanese army in just 6 days, rendering combat-ineffective about 50% of Japanese units in north-east China, including most well-equipped ones. The rest of Japanese have generally managed to block transport routes and took positions for the defense in depth. My forecast is what Soviets would need 2-3 months to fight their way to south of Korean peninsula and Beijing, at which point some sort of peace treaty (likely conditional surrender of Japan) pressed by startled US is inevitable.
Very likely, additional nuclear bombs will not be available for the US in this time frame until military collapse of Japanese forces in China become obvious, therefore the war on mainland remains the conventional one. Very remote possibility is what some of newly made nuclear bomb would be used against Soviet troops in around October 1945, in the very unlikely case the Soviet leadership will not listen to repeated orders "stop the advance into China, the war is over".
Overall, this scenario is very favorable to the Communist Party of China (CCP).
Last edited: