Japan doesn't surrender and US ops to starve and bomb. How long does the war last

Say Kyujo incident is success and Japan doesn't surrender with the US oping to go for the bomb and starve route.

How long would it take for Japan to collapse

Would an internal rebellion or a coup be possible at some point

How would post war Japan look like
 
Bomb and starve obviously didn't work then, and the US is in a hurry to end this as the Soviets are getting really close. I'm not sure how long it will be before the Soviets can invade Hokkaido though. but they will be able to before Japan "officially" surrenders to the starve and bomb. If there is anyone left to surrender.

Its hard to think they would not do Operation Downfall. Which is bad enough without the starving and nukes.
 
Bomb and starve obviously didn't work then, and the US is in a hurry to end this as the Soviets are getting really close.
I don't see why the Soviets would try to invade Japan solo given the lack of navy and Stalin cautiousness nor how the United States could see a solo Soviet invasion of Japanese home islands.

I'm not sure how long it will be before the Soviets can invade Hokkaido though
Even if the US invades Japanese homeland, I don't see how they could reach Hokkaido before the Soviets assuming the Soviets have the capacity to land troops on the Island in the first place.

Its hard to think they would not do Operation Downfall.
There was strong opposition to the Downfall
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Downfall#Prospects_for_Olympic
 
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It’s difficult to estimate, because we don’t really know the psychological impact such an announcement would have on the Japanese. It’s possible that the mere announcement that the US doesn’t intend to invade might break the Japanese right there and then, as the Japanese strategy underpinning Ketsugo revolved around the assumption the US must invade and such a continued strategy of isolation would obviously completely destroy that assumption. But then it is just as likely to encourage them, since the US balking at invasion could be interpreted as a weakening in resolve to defeat them so they’ll think if they just stay defiant they’ll get the peace terms they want. So the possibility could be anywhere between “a few days” too “a few years”.
 
I don't see why the Soviets would try to invade Japan solo given the lack of navy and Stalin cautiousness nor how the United States could see a solo Soviet invasion of Japanese home islands.

In OTL, Stalin wanted to invade Hokkaido to stake a Soviet claim for participation in the occupation of Japan (possibly an occupation zone).

Anyway, Truman was prepared--though very reluctantly--to drop a third a-bomb on Tokyo had there been no surrender, and IMO that combined with the Soviet invasion would lead the Japanese to surrender soon enough that Downfall would never take place.
 
My question is, what's become of the Emperor and the Royal Family? That would play a big part in how the Japanese react, which in itself will tell how long they hold out on the Home Islands.
 
I don't see why the Soviets would try to invade Japan solo given the lack of navy and Stalin cautiousness nor how the United States could see a solo Soviet invasion of Japanese home islands.

The US had supplied the Soviets with ships, including landing crafts. They were planning on doing it at the end of August, without the US knowledge btw.


There was strong opposition to starve and bombing too. Since it wasn't working.

My question is, what's become of the Emperor and the Royal Family? That would play a big part in how the Japanese react, which in itself will tell how long they hold out on the Home Islands.

The plan was to put the emperor under house arrest. Given how big the fear of the Americans was in Japan, i'd say it will be easy for them to keep it up so long that there will be irreversable consequences for the people of Japan.
 
There was strong opposition to starve and bombing too. Since it wasn't working.

not working? The japanese empire was disintegrating in front of everyones eyes.

I find it highly doubtful downfall would ever happen, many were against it, and more importantly the people in charge seemed too rapidly disfavour it. With pretty good reason, considering how utterly unnecessary it would be.
 
Soviet landings in Hokkaido are probably the next big shock which will lead to serious discussions about the surrender in the government, assuming additional bombings or the fear of internal rebellion haven't had that effect yet.
 
not working? The japanese empire was disintegrating in front of everyones eyes.

I find it highly doubtful downfall would ever happen, many were against it, and more importantly the people in charge seemed too rapidly disfavour it. With pretty good reason, considering how utterly unnecessary it would be.

if the 2 atomic bombings didn't work they will have serious doubts the tactic they have been using is effective enough.
 
*Korea will stay united under a Communist regime
*Mao gets a lot of Soviet help in ridding the country of non-Communist influence, starting off much stronger post-war than OTL
*Hokkaido likely invaded despite Shumshu on/before January 1946, likely becomes a an OTL North Korea equivalent
*Humanitarian suffering will be extraordinary, Downfall or some variation therein likely and public is war-weary
*Japan can further develop jets and other tech while Allies wait
 
[snip]Not working? The Japanese empire was disintegrating in front of everyone's eyes.

It was working, but more time would be needed which - now that the War in Europe had ended - was a political hotpoint.

But it would have worked, Japan would have been forced to surrender when the civilian population began dying off in large numbers due to starvation.
 

Dave Shoup

Banned
Bomb and starve obviously didn't work then, and the US is in a hurry to end this as the Soviets are getting really close. I'm not sure how long it will be before the Soviets can invade Hokkaido though. but they will be able to before Japan "officially" surrenders to the starve and bomb. If there is anyone left to surrender.

Its hard to think they would not do Operation Downfall. Which is bad enough without the starving and nukes.

The Soviets can't invade absent HULA, however.
 

Dave Shoup

Banned
Say Kyujo incident is success and Japan doesn't surrender with the US oping to go for the bomb and starve route.

How long would it take for Japan to collapse

Would an internal rebellion or a coup be possible at some point

How would post war Japan look like

Questions:

1) Formal surrender was Sept. 2; Japan was close to being on its last legs, to the extent the USN (with RN support) was routinely mounting shore bombardment missions of anything worthwhile within range of a 14 or 16 inch gun. US forces were already mounting special missions in Japan with small raiding parties, and - of course - within a few months of having very little left to bombard in any major Japanese city beyond making the rubble jump. Summer of 1946, at the latest, given a decent harvest in the autumn of 1945.

2) Yes. The IJN was the obvious counterbalance to the IJA.

3) Bleak.
 
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The US had supplied the Soviets with ships, including landing crafts. They were planning on doing it at the end of August, without the US knowledge btw.

The Soviets took two months just to secure the Kuriles and didn't land troops in Korea until October. At the time of the Japanese surrender the Soviet exploitation forces in August Storm were essentially physically stranded due to lack of fuel and had yet to occupy any of the major cities in Manchuria. Any invasion of Hokkaido wasn't going to occur until Early 1946 at best and would likely be a disaster very quickly.

There was strong opposition to starve and bombing too. Since it wasn't working.

In July the Japanese government received a report that the rice crop was largely going to fail/be unable to be delivered to the cities due to American bombing of transportation links. In other words, mass starvation was just around the corner for the home islands.
 
The Soviets took two months just to secure the Kuriles

August 18th to September 4th is a rather far cry from 2 months.

Any invasion of Hokkaido wasn't going to occur until Early 1946 at best and would likely be a disaster very quickly

I certainly agree a Soviet attack on Hokkaido won't happen in the August-September period of 1945, but how successful it would be is rather dependent on some details. Japanese troop strength on Hokkaido in August of 1945 were disproportionately small compared to the amount of coastline and coastal ports they had to guard and hence were totally inadequate to cover all potential Soviet landing points, so if the Soviets manage to land in a area devoid of Japanese troops (which was their preference for amphibious invasions) and are able to secure a port while doing then it probably would be reasonably successful. Of course, the Japanese might simply reinforce Hokkaido or redeploy their forces to better guard against a Soviet landing in the interim, but the mining of the Tsurugu Straits would hamper reinforcement and it's unclear how much attention the Japanese paid to the possibility of a Soviet Hokkaido landing following the Russian entry into the war.
 
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