Japan doesn't pull a Meiji?

"Oh, just what we need, another Meiji-thread to - whaaaaaa???"

Say Meiji never enacts his reforms, for reasons up to and including nonexistence. What happens?
 
"Oh, just what we need, another Meiji-thread to - whaaaaaa???"

Say Meiji never enacts his reforms, for reasons up to and including nonexistence. What happens?
The Shogun was modernizing anyway. One the ironies was that parts of the revolution were all about kicking out the foreign influence, but they got into power and realized that more foreign influence in the short term was the only way they could get strong enough to kick out foreign influence in the long term.
 

Susano

Banned
Yes, with both sides in the dominating power struggle wanting reform its a bit difficult to see how to avoid it. Hm, maybe if the war of teh Shogunate against the Satsuma and Choshu domains isnt ended decisively, but drags on and on and on, hence leaving Japan once again war-torn?
 
One possibility is to have Japan go the route of China and actively resist Commodore Perry's opening of Japan in an attempt to maintain their policy of isolation. Perry is then forced to utilize extreme force, destroying a large chunk of Edo and perhaps forcing the Shogunate to sign a humiliating treaty similiar to those signed by China.

With this kind of "opening" in Japan, other major powers swoop in to gain their own commercial treaties with Japan, effectively carving Japan into spheres of influence over a period of time.

Meanwhile Japan attempts to modernize, but in a very decentralized way, with each domain choosing a different model, including a very modest reform program of the Tokugawa. Meanwhile due to Japan's humiliation at the hands of the foreigners, internal discontent versus the Shogunate is mounting, with the Emperor becoming more and more of a figurehead for this discontent. Eventually this resistance results in a much larger shishi movement (an otl group of samurai fiercely loyal to the emperor and fiercely anti-foreign) trying to overthrow the Shogunate and succeeding due to larger numbers (in OTL they tried this but failed).

Using the emperor as a figurehead, the shishi succeed in overthrowing the Shogunate and immediately begin campaigning to kick the foreigners out of Japan in a kind of "Japanese Boxer Rebellion". They are aided in this plight by the various modernized domains and their armies, but ultimately an alliance of Foreign powers (USA, UK, France, Russia) arrives on scene to defeat the pro-emperor forces and restore the Shogunate. The treaty that ends this Japanese Boxer Rebellion restores the Shogunate, regulates the Emperor to ceremonial duties only, and breaks the power of the modernizing daimyo effectively dividing Japan into foreign spheres of influence.

thoughts?
 
If Japan was ravaged by war once again, would the Western powers use this inner turmoil to force the Tokugawas to give them more concessions regarding the treaty ports and extraterritoriality?

There were already foreign missions to Europe and the US before the Meiji Resoration. Would Tokugawa attempt to centralize the authority of the shogunate once knowledge of centralized Western governments comes back?

The shin-no-ko-sho system was a facet of the Tokugawa bakfu, once Socialism and Communism arises, would there be any homegrown attempt to destroy the class hierarchy either from the Japanese themselves or from foreigners supporting Communism and Socialism?

Given the rapid industrialization during the Meiji Restoration, I think industrialization would be a little slower and maybe less coordinated. Once/if this happens, would the industries be state owned or would they be privately owned, creating a new class that will result in a revision of the shin-no-ko-sho system?

With no Restoration, what does this mean for China? Korea would most likely be brought under Russia's sphere of influence and more of Manchuria also. This could cause Europe to exert their power and influence more in response to Russia's actions? Could this greater jostling for influence in China cause an earlier WWI?
 
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