Japan doesn't invade China

I think you (and many others) misunderstand the authority of Japanese Emperor over the government. Even before 1945 Surrender, a Japanese Emperor don't have the same power as Russian Tsar, German Kaiser, or Chinese Emperor. His rule are very indirect, arguably even more indirect than contemporary constitutional monarch like the British King.

Meiji constitution is among the most vague constitution ever written. It work as long the people who wrote it still in power (which are the genro) and the Emperor who reign have the strength and subtlety to control those who called the shots in the government. Emperor Meiji prove to be excelent for this task, but mentally-handicapped Mutsuhito and weak-willed Hirohito fail to do it.

If Hirohito try half-assedly restrain those who commit the Mukden Incident (or the Marco Polo incident, or Nomonhan Incident, or... the list quite long) and defuse the situation, there will be coup. Then they will simply declare the Emperor have been "misguided by corrupt and evil advisor", after that he will be sidelined from the decision making (not that he make any decision in the first place:rolleyes:).

Except the OP never stated that the emperor should be Hirohito. nor would even the people would be even in power to do such a thing. The only requirement is for Japan not to invade of China which could make many different things assuming different PoD.

All your assumption is based on OTL even with the success of a coup. That means in order for you assumptions to be true everything must happen according to otl. From successful, same people in power, etc.

However, if the op required it to be pod 1935, then I would agree would you since all your assumtions already happened.
 
difficult but possible. OTL it was because Chiang rightfully perceiving that the ROC was being taken advantage of by the Japanese and pressured by his government and people in the 1930s refused to continue doing business with the Japanese until they moved out of manchria. This was an issue because the era of the Meiji restoration and the period afterwards where Japan experienced high rates of economic growth were slowing down. Essentially the Japanese economy was on the verge of stagnation. The statistics point to this. Thus Japan needed to have markets in China and Southeast Asia because the Japanese economy had been geared towards and depended upon the resources from these regions that were necessary to fuel the growing industries in mainland japan since japan itself lacked natural resources. Thus the moment Chiang refused to continue doing business with the Japanese meant that the road to war was inevitable with or without the military officers, because at stake at least in the eyes of Japanese policymakers was the Japanese economy. After all no economy experiences continued growth indefinatley and Japans remarkable growth in otl can easily be attributed to the catching up phenomenon and other reasons of course.

In regards to the question their are three possibilities possibly more.

Personally I prefer number 1) create a strong nationalist army lead by Chang that is modernized to such standards that it can fight at least on par with he Japanese soldiers and outnumbers them and doesn't fear the battlefield. You also need a stable government and a better centralized nationalist state. In such a case and preferably with enough lobbying and securing backing for at least one of the great powers would make Japan disinclined to attack china and negotiate with Chiang. Maybe the Soviet-Sino relations continue improving between Chiang and Stalin and the two form a defensive pact?

2) Or you need Chiang to not take such an aggressive stance against Japanese economic imperialism and collaborate with the japanese in terms of retaining Japanese hold over the Chinese economy. After all Japan's entire drive for expansion in the pacific and east asia was based on a notion of wanting self sufficiency, fascism and one hell of an inferiority complex.

The third option is for Zhang Zuolin to not be assassinated and he somehow maintains control over the Zhilii cliqe and they defeat Chiang somehow. With Chiang dead the Beiyang cliques of the north retain their power, the nationalists collapse, and the Japanese continue doing business as usual in China and thus war would be averted.

Their are other reasons too but the above are just some that could work.

Also Muti about the authority of Japanese emperor I agree he wasnt that influential as the princes asaka, konoe, and the junior officers, but he still played a role in deciding affairs. Have you read some of Bix's work such as Hirohito and the making of modern Japan? I believe his views are currently the mainstream in academia on the role of emperor in Imperial Japan? Though I am sure your views also have supporters within academia.
 
Last edited:
If Japan doesn't invade China in 1931, what things would change. There wouldn't be an american embargo on Japan, which means no Pearl Harbor. US won't join WW2. However, Soviet forces eventually defeat the Nazis, and they control all of Europe. What will happen from there?

Assuming a momentous POD that completely restructures Meiji Japan, a better world for all around: no war-wrecked China, no colonised Korea/Formosa, and a democratic Japan. Japan economically expands with the Anglo-Japanese Treaty continuously upheld. All hold hands and sing kumbaya.
 
Japan cannot hope to defeat China. They can fight it while it remains undeveloped and disorganized, but once China gets its shit together, Japan cannot stand against it and will definitely be forced out of any territories China does not want them to be in. Which is the problem, of course, as China's existence ensures that Japan will always eventually end up playing second fiddle in Asia. Japan could choose to invade China and try to keep it permanently undeveloped and inferior to maintain their position, or just give up and admit they couldn't be the top dog. If Japan doesn't invade China, that implies they've basically given up on becoming the dominant power in Asia and creating a great empire to match the Western ones, in favor of being an inferior power which will be second to China once it inevitably modernizes. So yeah, that's probably not happening.
 
Japan cannot hope to defeat China. They can fight it while it remains undeveloped and disorganized, but once China gets its shit together, Japan cannot stand against it and will definitely be forced out of any territories China does not want them to be in. Which is the problem, of course, as China's existence ensures that Japan will always eventually end up playing second fiddle in Asia. Japan could choose to invade China and try to keep it permanently undeveloped and inferior to maintain their position, or just give up and admit they couldn't be the top dog. If Japan doesn't invade China, that implies they've basically given up on becoming the dominant power in Asia and creating a great empire to match the Western ones, in favor of being an inferior power which will be second to China once it inevitably modernizes. So yeah, that's probably not happening.

This and the only conceivable scenario is the Japanese politics of the 30s make it so that they wouldn't try. What if Ishiwara is purged and Shidehara democracy prevails, with no army massacres and ressurectionism, if Seiyukai, not fumimaro, rises to power? Japan got fast out of the depression and would have a democratic empire, maybe east asian federation that would be the most economically prosperous state in the world by the 50s and 60s.

China meanwhile benefits from trade and investment and starting from Beijing and Shanghai develops rapidly. State capitalism would be the way to go because after Soviet victory in the European war, Japan would get a lot more British-Western love while Chiang would turn to the USSR for help. I think CCP was definitely the most competent leadership but Chiang proved in Taiwan that with the right base, he can develop the economy. Overall, China could overtake US GDP by the 80s and 90s, decades after warlords were suppressed. Taiwan would be a major issue, and make Japan and China rivals.
 
What if Ishiwara is purged and Shidehara democracy prevails, with no army massacres and ressurectionism, if Seiyukai, not fumimaro, rises to power?

The entirety of the Japanese right-wing will rain hell upon the Shidehara cabinet. When Ishiwara bombed that station and invaded Mukden, he became a hero.
 
The entirety of the Japanese right-wing will rain hell upon the Shidehara cabinet. When Ishiwara bombed that station and invaded Mukden, he became a hero.

He expected to be fried because that right wing was divided, and didn't gain steam until manchukuo was annexed. Democracy vestigially even survived into 1940 in Japan. The Mukden incident was definitely the turning point in Japanese politics, the other being the Imperial Way Faction's failed coup against the Control Faction. Before then, the military was too divided to strongarm someone like Konoe, and eventually Tojo, into power. A control faction without "China syndrome" would probably just be a competent, well funded, "normal" defense clique without expansionist ambitions.
 
He expected to be fried because that right wing was divided, and didn't gain steam until manchukuo was annexed. Democracy vestigially even survived into 1940 in Japan. The Mukden incident was definitely the turning point in Japanese politics, the other being the Imperial Way Faction's failed coup against the Control Faction. Before then, the military was too divided to strongarm someone like Konoe, and eventually Tojo, into power. A control faction without "China syndrome" would probably just be a competent, well funded, "normal" defense clique without expansionist ambitions.

I think the Japanese civilian cliques are entirely capable of becoming expansionist. Japan was forced in multiple occurrences from expanding too much:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Intervention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-One_Demands
Now, these don't exactly mean that the Japanese were willing to fight all its neighbours in the 1910s. However it does mean that it believed in its military capabilities enough to oftentimes abandon caution and go "too far" for its neighbours to be okay with.
Furthermore it should be noted that the military cliques, I believe, were often anti-corporate - and yet the very reason for the expansions were to secure important natural resources such as coal, oil and rubber.
 
Top