Japan Doesn't Invade China, Longest Possible Pacific War?

Let me start by saying I haven't done a ton of research into the who, why, and how of the Japan-China war other than "Imperial Japan wanted conquest,resources" but let's say they never invade China(things are smoothed over following the Marco Polo Bridge Incident) how many resources and men does this open up for Japan to fight a longer Pacific War with the US?

I'm assuming China/Manchuria was a net drain on Japan with needs of waging war outweighing whatever resources were extracted to fuel the Japanese war effort/occupation.

Weren't the best Japanese armies/troops/equipment stationed in China? Like the Kwantung Army.

Would avoiding this conflict allow Japan to invade Australia? Dedicate more aircraft and troops to it's island bases? Construct more ships? How much longer can the PW go?
 
But why would Japan need to lunge for the oilfields of Malaya and Borneo without US sanctions which were prompted by Japan's brutality in China? Manchukuo itself provided all the raw materials for its militarization plans.

A major reason why the militarist faction gained the upper hand in 1937 was because China was making significant progress in wiping out the Communists (the Long March being the last-ditch attempt of survival), bringing the warlords to heal, building a passable infrastructure/industrial base, and training a modern army with German assistance.

By 1940, China could be in a position to retake Manchuria, and worse, push the Japanese into the sea. So Japan *had* to do something before then.
 
But why would Japan need to lunge for the oilfields of Malaya and Borneo without US sanctions which were prompted by Japan's brutality in China? Manchukuo itself provided all the raw materials for its militarization plans.

A major reason why the militarist faction gained the upper hand in 1937 was because China was making significant progress in wiping out the Communists (the Long March being the last-ditch attempt of survival), bringing the warlords to heal, building a passable infrastructure/industrial base, and training a modern army with German assistance.

By 1940, China could be in a position to retake Manchuria, and worse, push the Japanese into the sea. So Japan *had* to do something before then.

It would be odd to see a pro-Allied Japan getting a free hand in China because pro-Axis China did something stupid and made a pass at Hong Kong.
 
Japanese plans were always to take control of the Pacific. But China first. They wouldn't risk trying to take over the Pacific while China sits there untouched. They will always have their armies at the border with China and sooner or later that army is going to strike, like it did OTL.

Anyway even if they didn't they would use their resources and free armies to invade Burma and next India to defeat the British before they considder to invade Australia. The Soviets might be next sooner, once they take Indonesia and Melanesia Australia and New Zealand are cut off basically anyway.
 
Manchuria was important to the Japanese war economy. Without the coal, oil, iron and other resources Japanese economic performance drops

So if a war with the US still occurs (why, no Chinese campaign sucking up resources or embargo), the war probably lasts about the same. If Japan starts building up faster once the treaties end the US will match, and Japan will still need to keep a big army in Korea to deter the USSR and ROC
 
No Japanese war with China = no Pacific War at all.

Now, it's quite possible that there's a Japanese war with the Soviets, which will likely end with the IJA being driven into the sea.
 
Unless they're more cooperation between the Nazis and the Japanese like technological exchange.

Even then.

Remember the Soviets drove the Nazis back to Berlin, iOTL (yes, with help from the West, but the vast majority of the fighting was on the Eastern Front).

The Soviets would hardly break a sweat driving the Japanese into the sea, even if the Japanese had every German blueprint.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Even then.

Remember the Soviets drove the Nazis back to Berlin, iOTL (yes, with help from the West, but the vast majority of the fighting was on the Eastern Front).

The Soviets would hardly break a sweat driving the Japanese into the sea, even if the Japanese had every German blueprint.

ITTL IJA forces would prolly have more AT guns and artillery
 
ITTL IJA forces would prolly have more AT guns and artillery
Maybe. But Japan's heaviest AT gun was only 47mm, which would be iffy against T-34's, and useless against a KV-1. And Japan had no answer for Russian armor. The heaviest tank the Japanese fielded wouldn't have lasted 10 minutes on a European battlefield. With the situation on the German front I don't know how much the Soviets would have available against a Japanese offensive, but if there was much armor at all it wouldn't be pretty for Japan.
 
Remember the Soviets drove the Nazis back to Berlin, iOTL (yes, with help from the West, but the vast majority of the fighting was on the Eastern Front).

The Soviets would hardly break a sweat driving the Japanese into the sea, even if the Japanese had every German blueprint.

what percentage of Lend Lease flowed through Vladivostok? 80%(?) eliminate that and the invasion of USSR changes rapidly.

(especially if Germans had held back the BB Bismarck to operate with Tirpitz to blockade Murmansk route)
 
what percentage of Lend Lease flowed through Vladivostok? 80%(?) eliminate that and the invasion of USSR changes rapidly.

(especially if Germans had held back the BB Bismarck to operate with Tirpitz to blockade Murmansk route)

50% according to the Wikipedia entry which cites Ruge.

I am still trying to get my head around the ramifications of Japan not invading the rest of China beyond Manchuria...the KMT would need a lot, a lot and then a lot more development of its resources and armed forces before it could look to push Japan out in a long grinding slog.

Without though a war in China there is very unlikely to be a war in the Pacific which means the short answer trends at zero seconds :D
 
50% according to the Wikipedia entry which cites Ruge.

..

Other sources support that. The Siberian route was halted in October 1941 due to war tensions in the Pacific, and the problems of winter transit. In 1942 it was gradually restarted & the bulk of the total sent that way passed after the spring of 1943. The Persian route was opened in 1941, but required a massive rebuild of the railroads and port expansion before large quantities could be sent. The ports and railways were not completely high capacity until 1943.

http://talk.consimworld.com/WebX/?233@@.ee6ea25/4179!enclosure=.1dd31859
 
Maybe. But Japan's heaviest AT gun was only 47mm, which would be iffy against T-34's, and useless against a KV-1. And Japan had no answer for Russian armor. The heaviest tank the Japanese fielded wouldn't have lasted 10 minutes on a European battlefield. With the situation on the German front I don't know how much the Soviets would have available against a Japanese offensive, but if there was much armor at all it wouldn't be pretty for Japan.

It depends when the war occurs... a lot of Japanese equipment deficiencies never really got dealt with because it worked perfectly well fighting the Chinese. In a TL where they're gearing up to fight Russia, you're going to see a massive reorientation of Japanese supplies, equipment and training.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Uh...

Why would there even BE a war?

The Japanese have no need for oil, they have no significant friction with the U.S., UK, France, or The Netherlands.

The only way a war starts is if someone high in the command structure goes utterly nuts and orders an unprovoked and unsupported attack. In that case the countries in question hammer it out, somebody winds up either in a jacket with sleeves that tie in the back or in front of a firing squad and that's that.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Uh...

Why would there even BE a war?

The Japanese have no need for oil, they have no significant friction with the U.S., UK, France, or The Netherlands.

The only way a war starts is if someone high in the command structure goes utterly nuts and orders an unprovoked and unsupported attack. In that case the countries in question hammer it out, somebody winds up either in a jacket with sleeves that tie in the back or in front of a firing squad and that's that.

While I firmly agree, CalBear, the bolded part is how two or three of Imperial Japan's wars/ "incidents" started...
:p
 
I would agree that without Japan being involved in a war with China the likelihood of a War iin the Pacific is just about ZERO. The only country that the Japanese Army really would like to fight is Russia and even then it would take Germany attacking the Soviets to make that a possibility.
 
Let me start by saying I haven't done a ton of research into the who, why, and how of the Japan-China war other than "Imperial Japan wanted conquest,resources" but let's say they never invade China(things are smoothed over following the Marco Polo Bridge Incident) how many resources and men does this open up for Japan to fight a longer Pacific War with the US?

How do things get smoothed out? The whole point of the Marco Polo Bridge incident was that things were TOO smoothed out, that is to say the army wanted war. And the army was in charge.
 
It is actually a highly intersting premise. I agree that attacking US was simply too big a risk without the embargo forcing it. So, what can they do instead?
Guess there is a reason the army wanted war, and we have to provide a different target for the army to allow things to smooth down.

The pod would not have to be Japanese..?. Could it be an offer of German collaboration and a joint attack on the US instead?
 
It is actually a highly intersting premise. I agree that attacking US was simply too big a risk without the embargo forcing it. So, what can they do instead?
Guess there is a reason the army wanted war, and we have to provide a different target for the army to allow things to smooth down.

The thing is, there really aren't alternative targets. The Soviets are capable of beating even Japan's best equipped troops with just the forces in the Far East, attacking Western Europe's colonies is too dangerous unless they are occupied elsewhere, and hitting the US for no reason is national suicide.

The pod would not have to be Japanese..?. Could it be an offer of German collaboration and a joint attack on the US instead?

In which case, what do the Germans actually have to offer? Their navy is shit, so they have no way of actually striking the United States.
 
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